6 comments

[ 2.6 ms ] story [ 40.3 ms ] thread
Tracking the demise of OpenAI through the news cycle
No, they are not dead. However, they face incredible competition in a brutally commoditized product space.
As a retail investor mostly invested into broad ETFs (All World), is there any way I can get short exposure to OpenAI? Being short Oracle/Nvidia/Microsoft?
Relevant, I would definitely be sleeping uneasy if I was at “Open”AI.

Some insist that Chinese models are a few generations behind, how many probably depends more on patriotism rather than fact.

Those people typically also insist that Chinese models are just distillations and often neglect to see how many of these companies contribute to the theory of designing efficient and capable models. It is somehow thought that they will always trail US models.

Well. i would say look at recent history. China worked up the ladder of manufacturing from simple, bad stuff to highly complex things - exactly what westerners then claimed they’d never be able to. Then as that was conquered, westerners comforted themselves by insisting that China could copy, but trail-blazing would always still be our thing. Well, Baidu and Alibaba face scaling issues few western companies do and BYD seems to match Tesla or VW just fine.

I am unsure why anyone would think US models are destined to remain in the lead forever.

At “best”, I see a fragmented world where each major region (yes also Europe) will eventually have their own models - exactly because no one wants to give any competitive power a chokehold over their society. But beyond that, models will largely be so good that this “generation”/universal superiority idea becomes completely obsolete.

Is OpenAI profitable yet?

Will it be in time to recoop capex.

It will be the first application of the 'curse of Open company' rule: any for-profit entity that has the name Open in it is destined to go bankrupt.