What does a crash mean though? I remember people talking for years about the 2008 crash, but to be honest I never noticed it, nor did most people I know. We just kinda read about in the newspaper.
> Here’s the current price of silver. (…) People buy precious metals when they might be worried about the value of fiat currencies, like, I don’t know, the dollar.
My (non-economist) understanding was that the silver price spikes were caused by supply issues (China export restrictions, tariffs) during rising demand (and speculation), and not by a rush to replace fiat? A bit surprised the author didn’t mention that at all.
You can be directionally right but still lose a whole lot of money as an investor for decades on end even when you're right about the eventual outcome. Predicting future outcomes is orders of magnitude easier than predicting the exact moment/timing. After all, "markets can stay irrational for far longer than you can stay solvent".
This is why Burry, schiff, and a bunch of others keep predicting a collapse for decades on end. They're directionally right, they see a pattern but cant seem to time it right.
My prediction: I think this clusterfuck will keep going until
1. Unbearable irrationality: The US owes more money than there is money in the whole world. Measured using something like global M1 or M2 or something of that nature. Basically the system will need to reach a level of irrationality that even its biggest defenders can't cope with. OR,
2. Demographics: Most boomers die of old age after raiding whatever remains of the treasury.
Coincidentally, if my quick math is right, both of these scenarios are very likely to coincide within the next ~10 years or so. So make of that what you want...
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[ 2.8 ms ] story [ 17.3 ms ] threadMy (non-economist) understanding was that the silver price spikes were caused by supply issues (China export restrictions, tariffs) during rising demand (and speculation), and not by a rush to replace fiat? A bit surprised the author didn’t mention that at all.
This is why Burry, schiff, and a bunch of others keep predicting a collapse for decades on end. They're directionally right, they see a pattern but cant seem to time it right.
My prediction: I think this clusterfuck will keep going until
1. Unbearable irrationality: The US owes more money than there is money in the whole world. Measured using something like global M1 or M2 or something of that nature. Basically the system will need to reach a level of irrationality that even its biggest defenders can't cope with. OR,
2. Demographics: Most boomers die of old age after raiding whatever remains of the treasury.
Coincidentally, if my quick math is right, both of these scenarios are very likely to coincide within the next ~10 years or so. So make of that what you want...