I don't believe it'll work for anything that doesn't have a tight feedback loop. So while it can replace a lot of software engineers, it doesn't seem plausible to me that it would make a significant difference in other engineering industries.
I'm a firm believer in technological progress, but not so fond of group-think hype trains. The LLM/diffusion breakthrough(s) are huge, but they aren't what their rabid fans/neurotic critics are thinking.
I'm not clear how the bond markets should behave if they say expect agi in five years. Do long bonds go up or down?
Thinking about it long bond should mostly reflect the rate of inflation which depends much more on monetary policy than tech. Like after WW1, Germany and the US had much the same tech but Germany had hyperinflation and the US very little because Germany printed a lot of money and the US was on the gold standard.
The equity markets seem quite keen on NVDA stock though.
I wonder how they react to expected inflation, and how to build that in.
Official numbers say inflation has been 3% since Trump got in office in 2025. We’re seeing > 30% across the board on our bills, and GDP “growth” statistics imply inflation well above 3% (e.g., last quarter growth in the US was entirely due to increased health care spending).
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[ 5.7 ms ] story [ 15.1 ms ] threadI'm a firm believer in technological progress, but not so fond of group-think hype trains. The LLM/diffusion breakthrough(s) are huge, but they aren't what their rabid fans/neurotic critics are thinking.
Thinking about it long bond should mostly reflect the rate of inflation which depends much more on monetary policy than tech. Like after WW1, Germany and the US had much the same tech but Germany had hyperinflation and the US very little because Germany printed a lot of money and the US was on the gold standard.
The equity markets seem quite keen on NVDA stock though.
Official numbers say inflation has been 3% since Trump got in office in 2025. We’re seeing > 30% across the board on our bills, and GDP “growth” statistics imply inflation well above 3% (e.g., last quarter growth in the US was entirely due to increased health care spending).
Default spread reflects... well the likelihood of default.
Cost of debt = rf rate + default spread