Full tweet (since it wouldn't fit in the title): Sam Altman: Superintelligence probably by end of 2028. So we got roughly 2 years left. Enjoy your job while you still can. Time is ticking.
Yeah... I seem to remember seeing this before, only it was by the end of 2027. So the schedule is slipping by one year per year. (In fairness, it might not have been Altman who made the previous prediction.)
But one year slip per year is not the pattern of a successful project - it's the pattern of a floundering one. You see this sometimes in projects where they still haven't figured out what the spec is for what they're trying to build. (So, do they know the spec for building a superintelligence? I'm pretty sure that no, they don't.)
What they have is evidence that they're making progress, and a completely-without-evidence idea of how much further ahead superintelligence might be, and an extrapolation based on progress continuing at the same rate. Well, the part that is the most suspect is the guess as to how far away superintelligence is. If that's wrong, the whole estimate is worthless.
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But one year slip per year is not the pattern of a successful project - it's the pattern of a floundering one. You see this sometimes in projects where they still haven't figured out what the spec is for what they're trying to build. (So, do they know the spec for building a superintelligence? I'm pretty sure that no, they don't.)
What they have is evidence that they're making progress, and a completely-without-evidence idea of how much further ahead superintelligence might be, and an extrapolation based on progress continuing at the same rate. Well, the part that is the most suspect is the guess as to how far away superintelligence is. If that's wrong, the whole estimate is worthless.