I have to admit that some themes posted in this article run through my head every now and then. My plan is to use the runway I've amassed over the past year to work on startup projects while cutting out freelance work. Will I find new clients if I fail with my projects? Can I even compete with the lengthy requirements of most companies around here (Silicon Valley) require? Will being "out of work" for a year hurt my chances to get a job if I need one?
While these thoughts pass through my head, I don't believe things are as dire as they were in 2001 - 2002. Hopefully working on side projects can give me enough of a resume in the worst case scenario. I guess time and experience will tell if this and similar situations will be difficult in the next few years.
I "took off" for over a year, worked around the clock on my own projects, amassed a huge amount of new skills, and had absolutely no problem finding a new job afterwards.
It was almost eerie - nobody even cared if my projects were successful or how much money I made. They only wanted to know that I did have all the skills that I put on my resume, and (to a lesser degree) my motivation for doing what I did.
Working on your own stuff you learn ten times as fast as in a "regular" job. I highly recommend it.
For instance, I recently took a well-paying job as an "Integration Engineer" basically just setting up VMs and automatic builds. It's pretty easy and surprisingly pays better than I could make right now doing much else (I worked for the last 7 years as a software engineer). I worry I'll settle into complacency and let my skills rust (if at least on paper alone).
At the same time though I have other projects I want to pursue on my own and have some faith that I'm basically a pretty good software engineer who can land on his feet eventually given that our world is mostly automated now.
Also, the author goes out of his way to paint some sort of bleak picture. If you re-read it, basically, for the last 30 years he's raked in cash, taken multi-month leaves from work, and been unemployed for maybe 6 months total, along with a couple years of lower-than-expected payment around the dotcom burst? That's living the high life, man. We should all hope to be so lucky.
The article is an interesting mix of things you'd expect from economic theory: salaries going down as demand went down and supply stayed high, and things you wouldn't: the irrational aversion to people who got laid off and the importance of ass-kissing. Both of these things reduce efficiency, but they're a major phenomenon of the modern work force.
This must be unique to the UK or finance jobs or some other variable other than simply "IT" or "consulting". As an independnet consultant, I've never seen demand higher in my niche, and that's with me constantly raising my rates over the past few years.
Ditto, but... I think the point is that it can all change, quickly.
I was around in the first dot-com boom/bust, and do understand it could happen again, but I'm less pessimistic that things would crash again as hard and as fast. From an IT perspective, there's simply more technology powering more people's lives and businesses than there was 10-12 years ago. Mobile computing, cheap computers, widespread internet have all made "the web" far more entrenched and important to all collapse at the same time. The support/demand for all the IT jobs is too broad across too many sectors.
Doesn't mean demand won't fluctuate or slow down or reverse, but not likely all at once within just a few months.
Gentle plug: http://indieconf.com is an upcoming conference to help freelancers learn about and deal with these sorts of issues - self-employment, boom/bust cycles, pricing, legal, etc. :)
That's definitely true. I manage my finances with the expectation that the bottom will eventually fall out of the investment driven tech sector, whether because money can't be as cheap as it currently is forever or because too many high profile IPOs will fail to produce results, and that will pull the rug out from under the rest of us too. I'm also never rude to recruiters, as seems to be in fashion these days, for the same reason.
You're right that adaptation is key too. 15 years ago, I was writing desktop VB apps on the client-side and Perl scripts on the server-side. Now I'm writing HTML5 apps on the client-side and JavaScript nearly everywhere. 15 years from now, I wonder if I'll still be using JavaScript at all?
Everyone from small businesses to Fortune 500s in the past couple years. A surprising number of them are deploying internal tools and applications that target cutting edge browser features, even if their public-facing sites still require IE7 support.
It's true that there are more varieties in technology these days but on the other hand, the rise of some of the medium-size SaaS players (Salesforce.com, Dropbox.com, Box.net) and some of the "cookie-cutters" technology (wordpress, blogger.com, any CMS system out there) do change the game of consulting.
I'm guessing that in the past, one can run a successful and profitable "web-design" business easily as there aren't too many software like Drupal, Wordpress, phpBB, and the customers aren't necessarily "educated" in the sense that they could google these software and learn or hire some high-school kids cheaply out there.
Ditto with custom software like PoS, accounting software, CRM, etc. These days people would go with Salesforce, NetSuite, MS Dynamics, and the like.
Consultants have to become more specialized and there is a lifespan for those niches as the companies behind those software would like to increase their profits as "agile" as possible. This is definitely tougher on the consultants.
Long-term clients, word of mouth, and (a surprising number of) people contacting me through my technical blog. Feel free to send me an email (link in my profile) if you have any specific questions.
I would be curious to see a HN poll of people's sentiment towards job demand across the US and different countries. I know in both Silicon Valley and in Chicago demand is pretty high right now for all kinds of tech, but especially for the sort of young full-stack generalists that startups seems to focus the most on hiring. At one point in 2008-2009 it felt a little worse - I was happy to have a job at a big IT consulting firm - but now for the most part my then-colleagues and I feel like we have huge amounts of choice. How are other folks / other geographies seeing the trends in their area?
I'm in Vancouver and the hiring rate is definitely going up for Developers who know Java + a bit of front-end knowledge (according to some of the recruiters I talked to a few months ago).
On the flip side, Vancouver is a small market that most knowledge workers know almost everyone and the opportunity to work with his/her former colleagues are quite high.
On the consulting side, IT projects typically come from governments/municipals and there are plenty small IT shops that only do one or two of these projects to stay afloat.
It's a bit tough city overall even though some people would disagree with me.
Uhm, all I read was whine, whine and more whine.
- Too long unemployed and getting weird looks at interviews? Create your own consulting company, say "provided consulting to <your expertise>". Swallow down that your customers where your mom, aunt, uncle or your next neighbour. Why did you apply for this job? Expanding your horizon, sharpen your skills, new adventures, the whole shebang
- company having requirements no one can fullfil? guess what, the company is probably shit anyway
- get a job at some coder shop, even if it is below your standard
- if you have done consultancy for any money house - please don't call yourself anything technical (like speed traders) but go rot in hell
It seems to me that he did not keep his skills aligned up with the market. You've got to be looking 3 years ahead. Does it ever say what skills he has?
Working in banking, you kind of have two axes of career development to consider - your technology skills, and also the particular business line you work in. EG you could be the world's best developer at working on, say, mortgage securitisation systems, but that won't help you if that business line drops off a cliff.
Although a lot of the knowledge is transferable, recruiters often don't just want a C# or java developer - they want a fixed income Java developer.
If you work on packaged systems, you could even add a third dimension. What is the hot package for Equity Trading? Or Commodities? Should you specialise in Rolfe and Nolan? Summit? OpenLink? etc etc.
After reading the article I checked the date, expecting it to be from the early or mid 2000s. He talks a lot about the past and only briefly mentions the future when he says what he'd say to potential employers if he were without a job now.
Ok. I definitely respect any hardships the author has had to endure - I've had a few of my own. I also appreciate being frugal, calculated and managing risk in one's career.
OTOH, I am hearing echoes of what sounds like a textbook case of victim mentality. It's almost as if his fate wholly lies in the hands of these IT companies he's vying to work for. He mentions failing to hold his own during negotiations. He blames outsourcing. Complaint after complaint about why it's not all "roses, just roses"... like it used to be.
Folks: if you spend the time getting the right skills to pay the bills, this article does NOT apply to you. The crowd that I "run with" generally has NO problem finding lucrative engagements, or employment. Especially in this market. And even in a down market. There's always something brewing.
I hope I'm just gagging on some expensive link bait.
I was thinking exactly the same thing. You can complain about your job going to India, Russia or Eastern Europe all you like, but the sorts of jobs that are realistically compatible with those locations shouldn't be paid highly or in demand in the first place. The short of it is GOOD people are still HARD to find (heaven knows I've been looking for them).
The other thing that rubbed me the wrong way is this guy was taking 6 month holidays and working when he felt like it. Then he gets all upset when there's a low in the market and he's desperate for cash. What ever happened to making hay when the sun shines?
Surely with "decades of experience," this guy should have saved plenty by that point in his life to have a happy early retirement; but by the sound of it he's taken the work and salary for granted and wasted it away.
At some age, no amount of skill is going to help much. Someone will employ a developer nearing senior citizenry, but they'll want a deep discount over what they'd pay for younger.
Of course it is. But many employers will want that asset cheaper than in a younger package, and some other employers will pass at any price. And that's fair, because the older developer has fewer potential years to give to the company.
"The older developer has fewer potential years to give to the company."
That 58 year old developer probably won't reach retirement age for many years. Even if they retire promptly at 65 (which fewer people are doing these days), that would potentially be seven years of employment with the company that hired them. How many young developers expect to stay at the same company for seven years? (Talking about employees here; obviously if you're a founder, it's different.)
set thy face against Gog, the land of Magog, the chief prince of
Meshech and Tubal, and prophesy against him, 38:3 And say, Thus saith
the Lord GOD; Behold, I am against thee, O Gog, the chief prince of
Meshech and Tubal: 38:4 And I will turn thee back, and put hooks into
thy jaws, and I will bring thee forth, and all thine army, horses and
horsemen, all of them clothed with all sorts of armour, even a great
company with bucklers and shields, all of them handling swords: 38:5
Persia, Ethiopia, and Libya with them; all of them with shield and
helmet: 38:6 Gomer, and all his bands; the house of Togarmah of the
north quarters, and all his bands: and many people with thee.
38:7 Be thou prepared, and prepare for thyself, thou, and all thy
company that are assembled unto thee, and be thou a guard unto them.
Hmmm.. The ready availability of low cost labor in Russia and India must be why Microsoft, Google, and Amazon shell out 100k/year + 80k in stock to new employees.
30 comments
[ 2.7 ms ] story [ 73.8 ms ] threadWhile these thoughts pass through my head, I don't believe things are as dire as they were in 2001 - 2002. Hopefully working on side projects can give me enough of a resume in the worst case scenario. I guess time and experience will tell if this and similar situations will be difficult in the next few years.
It was almost eerie - nobody even cared if my projects were successful or how much money I made. They only wanted to know that I did have all the skills that I put on my resume, and (to a lesser degree) my motivation for doing what I did.
Working on your own stuff you learn ten times as fast as in a "regular" job. I highly recommend it.
For instance, I recently took a well-paying job as an "Integration Engineer" basically just setting up VMs and automatic builds. It's pretty easy and surprisingly pays better than I could make right now doing much else (I worked for the last 7 years as a software engineer). I worry I'll settle into complacency and let my skills rust (if at least on paper alone).
At the same time though I have other projects I want to pursue on my own and have some faith that I'm basically a pretty good software engineer who can land on his feet eventually given that our world is mostly automated now.
Also, the author goes out of his way to paint some sort of bleak picture. If you re-read it, basically, for the last 30 years he's raked in cash, taken multi-month leaves from work, and been unemployed for maybe 6 months total, along with a couple years of lower-than-expected payment around the dotcom burst? That's living the high life, man. We should all hope to be so lucky.
I was around in the first dot-com boom/bust, and do understand it could happen again, but I'm less pessimistic that things would crash again as hard and as fast. From an IT perspective, there's simply more technology powering more people's lives and businesses than there was 10-12 years ago. Mobile computing, cheap computers, widespread internet have all made "the web" far more entrenched and important to all collapse at the same time. The support/demand for all the IT jobs is too broad across too many sectors.
Doesn't mean demand won't fluctuate or slow down or reverse, but not likely all at once within just a few months.
Gentle plug: http://indieconf.com is an upcoming conference to help freelancers learn about and deal with these sorts of issues - self-employment, boom/bust cycles, pricing, legal, etc. :)
You're right that adaptation is key too. 15 years ago, I was writing desktop VB apps on the client-side and Perl scripts on the server-side. Now I'm writing HTML5 apps on the client-side and JavaScript nearly everywhere. 15 years from now, I wonder if I'll still be using JavaScript at all?
I find it surprising that the technology is gaining more traction for consultants (as opposed for the hot up-n-coming silicon valley startups).
Mind to share the type of clients that are looking for your services in this area?
I'm guessing that in the past, one can run a successful and profitable "web-design" business easily as there aren't too many software like Drupal, Wordpress, phpBB, and the customers aren't necessarily "educated" in the sense that they could google these software and learn or hire some high-school kids cheaply out there.
Ditto with custom software like PoS, accounting software, CRM, etc. These days people would go with Salesforce, NetSuite, MS Dynamics, and the like.
Consultants have to become more specialized and there is a lifespan for those niches as the companies behind those software would like to increase their profits as "agile" as possible. This is definitely tougher on the consultants.
On the flip side, Vancouver is a small market that most knowledge workers know almost everyone and the opportunity to work with his/her former colleagues are quite high.
On the consulting side, IT projects typically come from governments/municipals and there are plenty small IT shops that only do one or two of these projects to stay afloat.
It's a bit tough city overall even though some people would disagree with me.
Although a lot of the knowledge is transferable, recruiters often don't just want a C# or java developer - they want a fixed income Java developer.
If you work on packaged systems, you could even add a third dimension. What is the hot package for Equity Trading? Or Commodities? Should you specialise in Rolfe and Nolan? Summit? OpenLink? etc etc.
After reading the article I checked the date, expecting it to be from the early or mid 2000s. He talks a lot about the past and only briefly mentions the future when he says what he'd say to potential employers if he were without a job now.
OTOH, I am hearing echoes of what sounds like a textbook case of victim mentality. It's almost as if his fate wholly lies in the hands of these IT companies he's vying to work for. He mentions failing to hold his own during negotiations. He blames outsourcing. Complaint after complaint about why it's not all "roses, just roses"... like it used to be.
Folks: if you spend the time getting the right skills to pay the bills, this article does NOT apply to you. The crowd that I "run with" generally has NO problem finding lucrative engagements, or employment. Especially in this market. And even in a down market. There's always something brewing.
I hope I'm just gagging on some expensive link bait.
The other thing that rubbed me the wrong way is this guy was taking 6 month holidays and working when he felt like it. Then he gets all upset when there's a low in the market and he's desperate for cash. What ever happened to making hay when the sun shines?
Surely with "decades of experience," this guy should have saved plenty by that point in his life to have a happy early retirement; but by the sound of it he's taken the work and salary for granted and wasted it away.
That 58 year old developer probably won't reach retirement age for many years. Even if they retire promptly at 65 (which fewer people are doing these days), that would potentially be seven years of employment with the company that hired them. How many young developers expect to stay at the same company for seven years? (Talking about employees here; obviously if you're a founder, it's different.)
God says...
set thy face against Gog, the land of Magog, the chief prince of Meshech and Tubal, and prophesy against him, 38:3 And say, Thus saith the Lord GOD; Behold, I am against thee, O Gog, the chief prince of Meshech and Tubal: 38:4 And I will turn thee back, and put hooks into thy jaws, and I will bring thee forth, and all thine army, horses and horsemen, all of them clothed with all sorts of armour, even a great company with bucklers and shields, all of them handling swords: 38:5 Persia, Ethiopia, and Libya with them; all of them with shield and helmet: 38:6 Gomer, and all his bands; the house of Togarmah of the north quarters, and all his bands: and many people with thee.
38:7 Be thou prepared, and prepare for thyself, thou, and all thy company that are assembled unto thee, and be thou a guard unto them.
In programmers, you get what you pay for.