The hype cycle for AI products is brutal. Going from "this will change everything" to silence in a few months is rough. Makes you wonder how many other AI products are riding the same wave right now without anyone noticing.
It's a business for all the spin doctors who make money with creative marketing to keep the hype going. Everyone with the ability to sell hot air has an opportunity to get rich right now.
It took off rapidly but that was hardly because of any hyping and almost entirely due to word of mouth and people actually liking the product, until the press picked up on it.
From what I remember they still had an invite process when they were getting popular and the demand clearly overwhelmed their servers several times, indicating a much bigger response than they expected. If anything I think OpenAI was downplaying the product at the time.
I think the way Sam Altman talked about AI. The framing of it. That they had to hold back the real version because it is just too powerful; they don't even know how it is working; it is already doing these incredible things that would change the world, but we can't / won't release it was all cleverly orchestrated.
Investors immediately lose confidence in the entire space. Anyone who doesn't have other revenue streams -- e.g. Google, Apple, Microsoft, X -- probably goes under or sells shortly thereafter. the aforementioned big tech companies pull back investment considerably because shareholders no longer want to see investment in AI because they see it as a waste of capital resources that could be spent on things that actually make money. They go for the simplest lowest cost implementations and largely abandon advancements. Billions if not trillions of dollars in data center plans and hardware purchases are cancelled causing significant pain in the hardware sector. Hardware manufactures try to pivot to the next thing, but it will be multi year slow process to pivot.
It makes total sense to me that this would happen. The economics around Sora and video generation in general are just not there right now, and if you're a company that's also doing research into these things, that's basically a bottomless pit for money. I think OpenAI ceding the space to Google and others for the moment is probably the smart move.
I had fun using Sora and I'm bummed to see it will get removed from the API as well later this year, but no biggie. Veo is plenty good.
It really must cost so much money to generate these videos. That they can generate 12 second videos that are high quality in such a short amount of time - that takes some serious horsepower.
I'm actually very surprised, even if it was costing money. Their technological moat has turned out to be much more shallow than expected and competition fiercer. At the moment I think their greatest asset is brand and engagement. With a popular product and a deal with Disney seemed like a slam dunk on remaining prominent in the brand space and retaining user engagement.
Not only have they thrown out a name everyone knew, and exited the market segment, but they've also triggered Netflix/Google graveyard woes. "We may not maintain products you like". This could make people wary of buying into new products, "will it be there in a year?"
They're just removing it from public access and selling it to big money instead. Think large advertising companies, government agencies, Coke-Cola, Hollywood, etc. The scary part is now that they've removed it publicly, it's going to be harder to keep a pulse on what is real and what is fake. We can't trust any video, audio or text content now.
I went to the Snowflake Summit last year. And Altman sat on the stage saying LLMs would be coming up with new chip architectures and medical solutions within a year, and that AGI was around the corner. I turned on GPT and let it listen and respond to some of what he said. It replied, in less flattering terms than I am about to use, that he was -- being too optimistic. When you are bouncing around between AGI, Mickey Mouse videos, ad algorithms, and p@rn-bots, I think it's appropriate to question your motives.
I think the only logical conclusion is that many of these tech leaders are liars or have absolutely no idea what they are talking about. Maybe somewhere in between.
On here and else where there are people who see AI for what it is and are absolutely blown away by it and defend these people without realizing that they are regularly promising something much more to investors that can never be fulfilled. The idea that LLMs can ever reach any sense of true AGI is delusional.
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[ 3.9 ms ] story [ 150 ms ] threadWas it fun while it lasted? Sorta, but it got old pretty quick.
Is this a business? Hell no.
It took off rapidly but that was hardly because of any hyping and almost entirely due to word of mouth and people actually liking the product, until the press picked up on it.
From what I remember they still had an invite process when they were getting popular and the demand clearly overwhelmed their servers several times, indicating a much bigger response than they expected. If anything I think OpenAI was downplaying the product at the time.
It's had a ton of hype since then of course.
Which may or may not be a good thing depending if you want AI to "succeed".
I had fun using Sora and I'm bummed to see it will get removed from the API as well later this year, but no biggie. Veo is plenty good.
It really must cost so much money to generate these videos. That they can generate 12 second videos that are high quality in such a short amount of time - that takes some serious horsepower.
Not only have they thrown out a name everyone knew, and exited the market segment, but they've also triggered Netflix/Google graveyard woes. "We may not maintain products you like". This could make people wary of buying into new products, "will it be there in a year?"
Goodbye to Sora
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47508246
On here and else where there are people who see AI for what it is and are absolutely blown away by it and defend these people without realizing that they are regularly promising something much more to investors that can never be fulfilled. The idea that LLMs can ever reach any sense of true AGI is delusional.