If this argument is true, who will pay the toll? Europe or the Gulf states or both? Oil is a global market, but the suppliers have to get to market. And the Gulf states sit behind a gate via a vis the straits.
I heard a similar analysis by an episode of Predictive History[0]. Only watched the first 15 minutes so far where it gets to where the US country/those in power (not population) benefits.
Just seems like baseless speculation, another attempt to rationalize what occam's razor can much more easily explain with long-established egomania or senility.
A big factor the author ignored, is this potential “strategy” he speculates no longer works in a multi-polar world, especially when there is a thing called China. It is not exactly true if reopening Hormuz is simply a will of US or not.
The damage of loosing even 1 carrier is much much higher than 20 years ago because of this. But US force itself to play this unfavorable game that its enemies can not even dream about.
The theory is completely debunked, as ships are passing through now but not because the US allows it, but because Iran selectively allows it. Theory is moot.
It's just one of the bazillion bits of speculation US sources have thrown up, from the batshit crazy (the POTUS) to incredibly improbable (various analysts), in desperation to try and rationalise the fact that the US has long ago lost control of the situation, and therefore of the war.
What a fucking irritating reading experience. I have no idea what argument the author is trying to make. I was genuinely interested, but my patience is exhausted.
15 comments
[ 3.1 ms ] story [ 34.2 ms ] threadThe Hormuz Hypothesis – What If the U.S. Navy Isn’t in a Hurry to Reopen the Strait?
… and then …
“The binding constraint on Hormuz was never a minefield or insurance. It is the US Navy’s willingness and ability to reopen it.”
[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrmERlHUqBk
Occam's razor... senility? I'm tired of fixing this.
> can much more easily explain with [something]
An "easy explanation" is very different from a truthful and proper one. I mean, different as night and day.
The damage of loosing even 1 carrier is much much higher than 20 years ago because of this. But US force itself to play this unfavorable game that its enemies can not even dream about.
https://gcaptain.com/controlled-passage-first-ships-edge-thr...
It quacks way more like a duck.