The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults, will need to offer great concessions to Iran in order to extricate from the effects of a disastrous, illegal (both from a US as well as an intentional standpoint) and of course, completely, utterly failed war. And it might be just that Iran gets to be a permanent toll collector for the global economy.
> when finally back in control by reasonable adults
no one even knows who was really in control during the previous administration. quite a few idiotic and destructive policy changes were made during that administration too
Just about a week ago, Trump was joking about Pearl Harbor on TV while the Japanese PM was sitting right next to him. What's more, she's a nationalist.
Last week the US stated they didn't need any of the oil, and that if other countries wanted it they could go figure it out themselves. Looks like they have. And yet the US is now back to threatening Iran if they don't open up the oil.
Israel wants to completely destroy Iran so than no one would be willing to in any way challenge its occupation of Palestine, nor its ambition to expand into Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt and beyond.
Then there's an element of extremist Christian ideology from Pete H. etc.
Hormuz has little to do with it, it's just an excuse to destroy Iran.
Trump has been convinced that the Iranians are after him, plus there's the Epstein kompromat that the Israelis have on him. He's the only US president compromised enough to destroy Iran for them, war crimes and all.
This seems like one of the first very clear indications that separating your country from the US can be beneficial. The first stone unturned - will we see more countries aligning with other powers?
I like the progress but I think the article oversell the hope here. Its not about getting to 10s of crossings a day. The previous volume of ships was 130-140 per day. If the capacity of the strait is down +90% their is going to be long lasting problems. I've seen as many as 3 million of the ~20 million barrals might be getting through. The 17m/day deficit has to come from somewhere i.e more coal or increased oil prices or reduced World GDP by reduced production/consumption.
Also Iran's leverage is in the reduced world volume. If they allow 110 Ships to go through but block the 20 american-aligned (vastly over stated US-bound ships are not anywhere near 20/day). Than the problem for the US is minimized because that would stablize oil prices a reduction of 2% of the world supply might be managable 20% is very hard to make up. Being seperated from the US does not = safety because Iran's leverage is the world shock that will effect the US last. The US is net exporter of Oil. They also import a ton of oil from other nations though due to the Jones act (temporarily on hold). Oil is a world market if cheap oil flows Iran's leverage is gone.
There’s every chance that the US loses the trust of the GCC countries and they choose to spend their oil money away from the US should all of this madness ever calm down.
It's extremely unlikely without a common currency and a military alliance with larger, more populous states like Egypt and Iraq. The former would be unacceptable as it would represent a competitor to the Petrodollar, and the latter would be a threat to Israel.
Israel recently refused to buy more French military equipment, and France's relations with Israel is at a low; I'm wondering it was the reason the French vessel was allowed through.
That is a good move from Iran. The EU is tired of US induced wars, tired of Greenland threats and just wants to focus on its economy.
In a US war you always have to ask yourself if you do exactly what the US wants in secret. Here it could very well be that the Gulf monarchies are deliberately weakened and the EU/Japan/China are cut off from fossil fuels, so they are even more dependent on the US.
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[ 4.4 ms ] story [ 52.6 ms ] threadno one even knows who was really in control during the previous administration. quite a few idiotic and destructive policy changes were made during that administration too
Then there's an element of extremist Christian ideology from Pete H. etc.
Hormuz has little to do with it, it's just an excuse to destroy Iran.
Trump has been convinced that the Iranians are after him, plus there's the Epstein kompromat that the Israelis have on him. He's the only US president compromised enough to destroy Iran for them, war crimes and all.
Because no matter how much they pretend it doesn't affect the US, oil is a global market.
Also Iran's leverage is in the reduced world volume. If they allow 110 Ships to go through but block the 20 american-aligned (vastly over stated US-bound ships are not anywhere near 20/day). Than the problem for the US is minimized because that would stablize oil prices a reduction of 2% of the world supply might be managable 20% is very hard to make up. Being seperated from the US does not = safety because Iran's leverage is the world shock that will effect the US last. The US is net exporter of Oil. They also import a ton of oil from other nations though due to the Jones act (temporarily on hold). Oil is a world market if cheap oil flows Iran's leverage is gone.
In a US war you always have to ask yourself if you do exactly what the US wants in secret. Here it could very well be that the Gulf monarchies are deliberately weakened and the EU/Japan/China are cut off from fossil fuels, so they are even more dependent on the US.