Yeah, but are they factoring in tesla bots replacing all manual labor in the next 5 years while everyone rides robotaxis everywhere? With AI? And a TeraFab? And 3D datacetenter mass drivers on orbiting satellites to mars?
Looks like classic manipulation so they can buy low before we hit $10T valuation
I recently bought some TSLQ (2x short ETF) with a bit of play money after many years of being long on Tesla. I do think they're cooked at the current valuation and my thinking is pretty simple: almost the entirety of their valuation is predicated on near-instantaneous robotaxi rollout and a near monopoly on humanoids and neither of those are going to happen. None of the other businesses they've tried have worked and the car and storage businesses together are worth probably 15% of current valuation.
So first, why is robotaxi not happening? Well, it is just not on the scale they need it to. In addition to Waymo, many other companies are working on driverless systems and they're all making good progress. nVidia has a full stack competitors based on VLA models, as do Chinese manufacturers etc. In short, we'll see capable self driving systems from probably a dozen companies world wide. Tesla has some advantage here, but real world acceptance and scaling are slow, trust in Tesla is low and most of their cars are physically incapable of running the size of models L4 systems will require. My 2022 Model Y has roughly the same processing power as my Rovers Jetson Orin Nano and that thing isn't driving itself.
The humanoid part is even worse, Tesla has absolutely no structural advantages there - they're no better than Chinese companies at making the hardware and they're no better than the AI Labs at developing the models required. Also, again low trust. Tons of people will absolutely not let a tesla bot in their house. There's no reason to think they'll be wildly successful, and the actual capabilities and economic usefulness of humanoids are still some years away.
> almost the entirety of their valuation is predicated on near-instantaneous robotaxi rollout and a near monopoly on humanoids and neither of those are going to happen.
I also expect their robotaxis and robots to be a joke business-wise for the foreseeable future, but I totally disagree that they have much to do with the stock price. The real driver is Elon's immense cult following. The Tesla stock price has always been absurd relative the actual business, but cult followers don't care about financial statements, or engineering work, or business logic. They will ignore all of that to support their leader.
Elon has been spewing blatant lies for well over a decade at this point and always claims to be chasing some shiny object a year out that will transform the business and grow its revenue to match the valuation. It never happens, but people don't care.
He has lost some supporters from his peak due to his political and social media insanity, but most of the diehards have kept by him. The odds of him diving back into MAGA politics in a visible way is a larger stock price risk than continuously declining sales, but even then he would have to go to extreme lengths to shake off most of the people who have stuck behind him for this long.
The difference in quality and performance between Tesla and the EVs from Hyundai, Toyota, Kia, and Nissan is closing fast.
Tesla is stuck with marginal innovation and has to pull stunts like the Tesla Diner just to stay relevant in the news cycle.
TSLA at $150 would still be a phat valuation. The best that can be said for that number is the Tesla lacks a lot of the baggage of legacy car OEMs. Their current cars are still competitive for three or four more years, but I don't see them spending what it takes to update their products, which is how you make a path from a $150 to zero.
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[ 4.0 ms ] story [ 32.4 ms ] threadLooks like classic manipulation so they can buy low before we hit $10T valuation
https://futurism.com/advanced-transport/tesla-europe-sales-2...
So first, why is robotaxi not happening? Well, it is just not on the scale they need it to. In addition to Waymo, many other companies are working on driverless systems and they're all making good progress. nVidia has a full stack competitors based on VLA models, as do Chinese manufacturers etc. In short, we'll see capable self driving systems from probably a dozen companies world wide. Tesla has some advantage here, but real world acceptance and scaling are slow, trust in Tesla is low and most of their cars are physically incapable of running the size of models L4 systems will require. My 2022 Model Y has roughly the same processing power as my Rovers Jetson Orin Nano and that thing isn't driving itself.
The humanoid part is even worse, Tesla has absolutely no structural advantages there - they're no better than Chinese companies at making the hardware and they're no better than the AI Labs at developing the models required. Also, again low trust. Tons of people will absolutely not let a tesla bot in their house. There's no reason to think they'll be wildly successful, and the actual capabilities and economic usefulness of humanoids are still some years away.
I also expect their robotaxis and robots to be a joke business-wise for the foreseeable future, but I totally disagree that they have much to do with the stock price. The real driver is Elon's immense cult following. The Tesla stock price has always been absurd relative the actual business, but cult followers don't care about financial statements, or engineering work, or business logic. They will ignore all of that to support their leader.
Elon has been spewing blatant lies for well over a decade at this point and always claims to be chasing some shiny object a year out that will transform the business and grow its revenue to match the valuation. It never happens, but people don't care.
He has lost some supporters from his peak due to his political and social media insanity, but most of the diehards have kept by him. The odds of him diving back into MAGA politics in a visible way is a larger stock price risk than continuously declining sales, but even then he would have to go to extreme lengths to shake off most of the people who have stuck behind him for this long.