That's effectively what all the 99% or 1% prediction markets are: a bet that an asteroid will destroy the planet or that the Rapture will occur or that we'll all upload our consciousnesses into computronium or whatever is not actually a bet that those events will happen (and that the site and enough of the economy will survive to allow you to collect and spend your winnings), it's a bet that the market will resolve incorrectly.
"It sucks that someone potentially tricked a temperature sensor with a hairdryer to scam actual gamblers out of potential winnings" really missed a chance to say it blows.
It’s not gambling, these are legitimate financial instruments designed to allow proper risk management through appropriately market-set pricing on the value of that risk mitigation, and it’s doing this in a way that democratizes risk management in a way previously inaccessible to the public.
I think what's also telling is Polymarket's non-reaction to this. If there are obvious concerns that the outcome was manipulated, I'd expect them to invalidate the bet - otherwise they're effectively incentivising manipulation.
If that happened, has a crime been committed? I don't think so. Well, maybe tampering with the thermometer might be a crime, but, on the gambling angle, I would say it's not.
The betting contract depended on the Oracle's data for resolution. The Oracle's data was altered. The betting contract wasn't altered, however the social contract was.
Just to be clear, my understanding of news here is France is that there is an investigation for someone having possibly rigged the weather sensor but there was nothing release about how this could have been done.
The hair dryer thing is a joke, even if it is still a possibility, but just to say, it could be a cover, it could be a hot air gun, it could be a hack, it could be just luck, ...
Take care because there are ai generated videos of a guy with a hair dryer doing that, but these are fake!
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[ 3.0 ms ] story [ 42.7 ms ] threadj/k totally gambling
(Whether you read this as a defense of polymarket or an indictment of shareholder capitalism might depend on your ideology)
You love to see it.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47869664
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47878208
The hair dryer thing is a joke, even if it is still a possibility, but just to say, it could be a cover, it could be a hot air gun, it could be a hack, it could be just luck, ...
Take care because there are ai generated videos of a guy with a hair dryer doing that, but these are fake!