The answer is, of course, yes. What is there to stop them? Sure, it's difficult -- but where there's a will, and where the resources of China are involved, there is most assuredly a way.
I remember when their cars were a joke, and when their cellphones were cheap trash. Now I don't think I'd buy a non-Chinese new car or cellphone, lol.
China IS building it's own chip foundrys and lithographic machines that ARE producing chips that ARE closing the gap towards parity with the best western (ASML) companys.
The question is can they do that, this year, or next?
Yes and that will be great. More competition = more choice = less political risk = great.
Protectionism policies are blocking low prices (what about tariffs ? what about monopolies ?) and are benefiting only the ones holding the knowledge and factories at the detriment of the rest of humanity.
Can't wait for ASML / TSMC / Zeiss equivalents so we can have access to memory sticks and GPUs / AI accelerators to run Qwen Super-Large distilled on Claude Zulu model, GTA VIII or whatever will come at that time.
The question is "can anyone". Makes you wonder why the USA hasn't built one? Maybe the latest technology required some rare discovery. Just like nobody can replicate the taste of Coca Cola, maybe there some tiny detail that they discovered by experimenting.
The US is ran by a moronic kleptocracy of conmen and number-go-up techbros that give precisely zero shits about human rights and improving life for the average citizen.
There is no way to defend the moral or political superiority of the west anymore. And who needs to worry about foreign intervention destabilizing internal affairs when we let the extremists, the populists do that for us?
At least if China pulls this off we might get some semi-affordable RAM and SSDs.
ASML literally makes the most complex machines on Earth. Sure rockets are powerful and they help us reach outer space ... yet they need computers to do so. Computers in turn are made with lithography machines and the SOTA is ASML.
Also ASML is not alone. In fact ASML can not exists without its partners, first and foremost American Department of Energy but also s IMEC in Belgium and Zeiss in Germany. Those are all SOTA in either R&D or production. They are not "some of the best" they are literally the best in their very complex expertise. In fact they have to collaborate reach such level.
... and yet, it's "just" that. There is nothing magical about ASML. Yes it might be practically impossible because of IP, economics, etc but still China (or anyone else) can definitely pour a lot of resources to try and make significant process. Will the result be competitive though in light of the moat ASML has, in particular partnerships, that is hard to imagine.
PS edit : I did like Chris Miller's "Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology" and FWIW did have a former colleague working at ASML and been invited to IMEC events.
Any nation state can build pretty much anything (albeit over a varying time period), because at the State Level the budgets can be billions, no commercial pressure and also immunity from prosecution (e.g. a Chinese spy caught would be traded for something or another and returned home and state authorised hackers based in China won't get extradited).
The only thing to stop them is the will of more powerful states.
If you take Iran as an example, they would have possessed Nuclear weapons long ago if it wasn't for USA/Israel as Iran as a state will throw everything at it.
p.s. And that's a very detailed and well laid out visual article above usual broadsheet standards.
As many comments say, of course they can. They are an illiberal country, very good at semi-centrallised command, semi market economy. They have shown a number of areas where through determination and massive central effort they bridged enormous gaps. Chinese cars are already much better than a lot of established tech, not to mention solar, batteries etc.
I do however wonder how long China can afford to pay the price for this. China is effectively heavily subsidising it's export and research efforts to catch up. But subsidizing with what? They don't have a magic money tree.
To flesh it out a bit more: people in the West complain that the Chinese are unfairly competing, by selling their stuff - cars, batteries, chips etc - at an unfairly low price, either via subsidies or an artificially low exchange rate (or both). There's also IP theft, sure, but there's plenty of home grown IP too.
So this means that when German workers build a car, they get paid a lot more than the Chinese workers. The Chinese AI researchers get paid less than the Americans - for the same work. Sure, it's a mix of patriotic fervor, different purchasing power of the salary (agricultural goods are cheaper in China because farmers get paid less for the same work), etc etc. Subsidies are the same thing scaled up - Chinese government collects taxes, i.e. makes Chinese people work more for the same ultimate outcome.
But this extra economic heft is not coming from nowhere. China is channeling funds that it could spend elsewhere, but instead spends on high IP industries.
Europe and US could do the same. But at a cost! They could tax people more, who would have less money to spend (making them unhappy and affecting GDP growth), or cut investment elsewhere. You could finance it with debt, and we all know how well this tends to go.
I don't know enough about the Chinese economy to even try to have an opinion as to where this money is coming from, and what they aren't spending it on but should. But the unwind is coming sooner or later. You can't subsidise something forever. You can't grow your GDP with subsidies. So what's going to give?
It might be that they are hoping to kill foreign industry, become a monopoly and milk it, like the US under Trump is trying to in smaller scale. But of they were a free economy, it would be a race - can they stay solvent for long enough? Liberal or not, they are still an economy, and you can't beat gravity forever. I'm curious how it plays out.
The latest from Huawei (which is probably the company to watch here) is an idea called "logic folding" which will squeeze more juice out of DUVL by 3D-stacking logic chips.
So far they have announced road maps and benchmarks for their upcoming products using this. A new Kirin-series phone/laptop chip and an Ascend AI accelerator - stated performance comparable to leading US products made with EUVL.
I saw this clickbait article once about how china was making laser propelled submarines, and the 3D stacking logic chips kind of sounds about as outlandish.
Looking into it, they are "folding" a logic chip to have shorter paths with their SRAMs, which is the main application of 3D integration these days, chucking memory (low-power) above high power logic die.
stacking logic chips is hard because they have to dissipate a lot of power, and stacking them multiplies your power density (which is already very high for the logic die, generally) by the number dies you stack~effectively. Most of the progress on these sorts of things have just been stacking layer on layer of memory on a single logic die.
It looks like they are folding other components other than memory onto the logic die which I haven't seen before, but this isn't cold fusion and even intel has thrusts doing this type of 3D integration.
R&D is difficult and expensive which makes this "logic folding" more impressive. It might not have been a new idea but Huawei, against all the demonization against it over the last 10 years, is commercializing it and that's a huge achievement.
R&D is difficult and expensive which is why the US and Europe gives up on many cutting edge technologies and relies on the tried and true and discounting opportunities. This will be the end of their dominance.
The question is can ASML and western semi keep up with PRC long term. Every western semi player is projected short 100k talent while PRC is only semi power on trend to produce enough IC talent for the entire supply chain, and surplus to seriously investigate multiple paths. I.e. west/ASML stuck on LPP EUV with seriously terminal economics, while PRC doing LPP, LDP, synchrotron, nanoimprint, FEL etc all of it, several branches of which could essentially instantly validate ASML model.
These arguments always remind me of 1960s-1970s era spy movies, where Bad Guy has the secret design for SuperNewBig computer chip, which will tip the balance of power inevitably in his favor.
Meh. For a year or so, his computers will work a little faster. Unless they power an armageddon-device, it's just a short head-start in a long race.
Can China build its own ASML? NEVER! Western brains and economic greatness cannot be equalled!
Yes, China will catch up. It won't give them anything but a short lead.
24 comments
[ 2.5 ms ] story [ 48.1 ms ] threadI remember when their cars were a joke, and when their cellphones were cheap trash. Now I don't think I'd buy a non-Chinese new car or cellphone, lol.
the qn is if it will be what china wants and needs
more likely something better or more suited to the ecosystem in china will emerge
China’s willpower and centralized deployment of that willpower is legendary.
Protectionism policies are blocking low prices (what about tariffs ? what about monopolies ?) and are benefiting only the ones holding the knowledge and factories at the detriment of the rest of humanity.
Can't wait for ASML / TSMC / Zeiss equivalents so we can have access to memory sticks and GPUs / AI accelerators to run Qwen Super-Large distilled on Claude Zulu model, GTA VIII or whatever will come at that time.
The US is ran by a moronic kleptocracy of conmen and number-go-up techbros that give precisely zero shits about human rights and improving life for the average citizen.
There is no way to defend the moral or political superiority of the west anymore. And who needs to worry about foreign intervention destabilizing internal affairs when we let the extremists, the populists do that for us?
At least if China pulls this off we might get some semi-affordable RAM and SSDs.
Also ASML is not alone. In fact ASML can not exists without its partners, first and foremost American Department of Energy but also s IMEC in Belgium and Zeiss in Germany. Those are all SOTA in either R&D or production. They are not "some of the best" they are literally the best in their very complex expertise. In fact they have to collaborate reach such level.
... and yet, it's "just" that. There is nothing magical about ASML. Yes it might be practically impossible because of IP, economics, etc but still China (or anyone else) can definitely pour a lot of resources to try and make significant process. Will the result be competitive though in light of the moat ASML has, in particular partnerships, that is hard to imagine.
PS edit : I did like Chris Miller's "Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology" and FWIW did have a former colleague working at ASML and been invited to IMEC events.
The only thing to stop them is the will of more powerful states.
If you take Iran as an example, they would have possessed Nuclear weapons long ago if it wasn't for USA/Israel as Iran as a state will throw everything at it.
p.s. And that's a very detailed and well laid out visual article above usual broadsheet standards.
I do however wonder how long China can afford to pay the price for this. China is effectively heavily subsidising it's export and research efforts to catch up. But subsidizing with what? They don't have a magic money tree.
To flesh it out a bit more: people in the West complain that the Chinese are unfairly competing, by selling their stuff - cars, batteries, chips etc - at an unfairly low price, either via subsidies or an artificially low exchange rate (or both). There's also IP theft, sure, but there's plenty of home grown IP too.
So this means that when German workers build a car, they get paid a lot more than the Chinese workers. The Chinese AI researchers get paid less than the Americans - for the same work. Sure, it's a mix of patriotic fervor, different purchasing power of the salary (agricultural goods are cheaper in China because farmers get paid less for the same work), etc etc. Subsidies are the same thing scaled up - Chinese government collects taxes, i.e. makes Chinese people work more for the same ultimate outcome.
But this extra economic heft is not coming from nowhere. China is channeling funds that it could spend elsewhere, but instead spends on high IP industries.
Europe and US could do the same. But at a cost! They could tax people more, who would have less money to spend (making them unhappy and affecting GDP growth), or cut investment elsewhere. You could finance it with debt, and we all know how well this tends to go.
I don't know enough about the Chinese economy to even try to have an opinion as to where this money is coming from, and what they aren't spending it on but should. But the unwind is coming sooner or later. You can't subsidise something forever. You can't grow your GDP with subsidies. So what's going to give?
It might be that they are hoping to kill foreign industry, become a monopoly and milk it, like the US under Trump is trying to in smaller scale. But of they were a free economy, it would be a race - can they stay solvent for long enough? Liberal or not, they are still an economy, and you can't beat gravity forever. I'm curious how it plays out.
So far they have announced road maps and benchmarks for their upcoming products using this. A new Kirin-series phone/laptop chip and an Ascend AI accelerator - stated performance comparable to leading US products made with EUVL.
Products are due in August.
Looking into it, they are "folding" a logic chip to have shorter paths with their SRAMs, which is the main application of 3D integration these days, chucking memory (low-power) above high power logic die.
stacking logic chips is hard because they have to dissipate a lot of power, and stacking them multiplies your power density (which is already very high for the logic die, generally) by the number dies you stack~effectively. Most of the progress on these sorts of things have just been stacking layer on layer of memory on a single logic die.
It looks like they are folding other components other than memory onto the logic die which I haven't seen before, but this isn't cold fusion and even intel has thrusts doing this type of 3D integration.
R&D is difficult and expensive which is why the US and Europe gives up on many cutting edge technologies and relies on the tried and true and discounting opportunities. This will be the end of their dominance.
US sanctioning GPUs to China, then blocking access to latest SOTA models will impact everyone in the world negatively.
We need competition, Europe is not an option anymore, hopefully Chinese labs will keep open sourcing SOTA models
Based on the trend, if China wins, everyone benefits, if US wins, only Americans will benefit and everyone else will suffer
Meh. For a year or so, his computers will work a little faster. Unless they power an armageddon-device, it's just a short head-start in a long race.
Can China build its own ASML? NEVER! Western brains and economic greatness cannot be equalled!
Yes, China will catch up. It won't give them anything but a short lead.