Show HN: I measured the half-life of 41,301 Show HN launches. It's 7 hours (jonno.nz)

37 points by jonnonz ↗ HN
I scraped every Show HN from the last 12 months (41,301 posts) plus the full comment tree of every launch with 10+ comments, ~100k comment timestamps, all from the Algolia HN API.

The median launch gets 2 points and 0 comments. For launches that do get traction, half the comments they'll ever get arrive within 7.2 hours and 90% within 26, and the top decile decays on the same clock as everyone else.

Vote timestamps aren't public, so comment timing is the attention proxy; caveats are in the post. Everything reproduces from the repo with one command (https://github.com/jonnonz1/hn-attention-cliff), and every number in the post maps to a named function. Keen to hear where the methodology falls short

12 comments

[ 4.2 ms ] story [ 38.8 ms ] thread
Launching today is all about sponsored distribution channels and less about posts in specific forums.

But let's hope this one beats the statistics..

> "... every launch with 10+ comments..."

Using "launch" may give readers the wrong impression. Show HN is not for product launches or advertising. It is for "something you've made that other people can play with" according to the specific rules for such submissions at https://news.ycombinator.com/showhn.html .

Submitters try to game the system to self-promote constantly but generally such improper submissions are ignored or shut down by the site moderators or users very quickly. Those who want to advertise or SEO on Hacker News are not welcome here.

From what I see, Show HN could be the best place to get the first few users for your product. Im trying to find ways to market apps and i found a few: - paid ads (problem if you dont have money) - posting self made ads on social media (you need to be an expert in short form) - Reddit (50 to 100 karma points to even post something about your app)

All of these seem bad for people wanting to find the first few users.

Just so we are clear, i havent posted anything here with Show HN because i cant yet, I have a new account and it doesnt let me. But it just seems like this is the best place left to find users.

But if you know places where i could find the first few users for new apps right now without having to get karma points please tell me.

I’m posting this comment 8 hours after the post so I can be in the better half of the distribution.
Very meta and congrats on beating the median! I am replying at 17 hours so I too am not the average lol
Great analysis—it's a refreshing reminder that successful projects on HN are about genuine utility rather than just "launch" mechanics.
A simple show HN submission brought our user count up from 13,000 to 16,000.
Whats the half life of the Show HN half life in the AI era?
Annnnnnnnd it’s dead haha