Pruning away excess information is about fitting into a niche, while keeping the extraneous is about flexibility. The selection should be based on how uncertain you are about the future and nothing else.
Me personally, I'm aware of four big picture questions that predict 16 possible (and incompatible) futures of great divergences, so I figure flexibility is the way to go.
1: Will the next 3-5 years of AI produce construction and/or freight solutions that are competitive or better WRT current methods of large machines using large quantities of diesel fuel?
2: Will the next 3-5 years of AI produce fleets of autonomous and convincing social engineering, experience machine and pig-butchering bot scammers that dispossess 10% or more of all human consumers liquid assets?
3: Will the rising severity of heat waves and the decline in diesel supply per capita globally produce severe food shocks in America, Europe and the developed parts of East Asia (the three parts of the world that could launch expeditionary wars if they really wanted to) instead of the frog-boiling decline the likes of Rystad and the OECD expect?
4: Will technologies to improve the bandwidth and/or speed of the human mind through uploading or surgery be developed to any degree of usefulness in the next 3-5 years?
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[ 5.0 ms ] story [ 18.4 ms ] threadMe personally, I'm aware of four big picture questions that predict 16 possible (and incompatible) futures of great divergences, so I figure flexibility is the way to go.
> I'm aware of four big picture questions that predict 16 possible (and incompatible) futures of great divergences [...]
What are they?
1: Will the next 3-5 years of AI produce construction and/or freight solutions that are competitive or better WRT current methods of large machines using large quantities of diesel fuel?
2: Will the next 3-5 years of AI produce fleets of autonomous and convincing social engineering, experience machine and pig-butchering bot scammers that dispossess 10% or more of all human consumers liquid assets?
3: Will the rising severity of heat waves and the decline in diesel supply per capita globally produce severe food shocks in America, Europe and the developed parts of East Asia (the three parts of the world that could launch expeditionary wars if they really wanted to) instead of the frog-boiling decline the likes of Rystad and the OECD expect?
4: Will technologies to improve the bandwidth and/or speed of the human mind through uploading or surgery be developed to any degree of usefulness in the next 3-5 years?