Tell HN: Who wants to be hired" posts outpace "Who's hiring" 2 to 1
I pulled the data using HN API and confirmed this "reversal". "Who wants to be hired" posts are getting 2x more comments than "Who's hiring" posts (and seems to be accelerating). For reference, in 2022 it used to be 0.25.
I'm old, I'm from the times where demand for software devs greatly outpaced supply, but maybe we're seeing a reversal of it?
I don't want to draw any conclusions yet, there could be many things going on. My initial thoughts would be AI-related. We're either entering a general recession because the AI bubble is bursting, or the job market is changing due to AI.
Again, I don't have any answers, but it's something definitively interesting to discuss!
Here's the source code (including data): https://github.com/santiagobasulto/hn-who-is-hiring-analysis
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[ 2.8 ms ] story [ 51.9 ms ] threadThen with increased interest rates. Which are still active and weirdly should've caused more hardship than ~3 months lower stocks.
And now ai, but this depends on demand for software too, which I don't how big it is, like can demand scale too with ai?
Like when you lower electricity cost people just use more electricity.
I'm happy my junior years passed before all this and I don't envy those who are just coming into this field.
And it's not just tech - all over my extended social circle there are people in various fields who were laid off. It's a crawling, largely invisible in the usual indicators, crisis.
[1] https://hnjobs.mathieularose.com
Well, yeah. High supply of workers meets low demand of jobs.
Really, what do you expect from a "profession" that has been trying to lower the entry level to a point where anyone with access to an AI is a programmer?
I remember when folks had to have a degree to enter the "profession" of software developer. Nowadays all you need to be a "programmer" is access to AI. And correspondingly the quality of the output has fallen to such a level that it no longer possible to distinguish between human generated or machine generated code.
The bad quality is hidden away with euphemisms such as "release early, release often" or "move fast and break things". The constant requirement to update because updates were broken is just another symptom of an industry gone badly wrong.
Worse still, the solution coming out the tech hubs isn't to slow down and reflect about these issues in IT, rather it's to throw even more technology at it. Technology that then also fails. Technology that is designed to cause vendor-lockin and dependence on a few controlling companies (OpenAI & Anthropic being the latest in a long line ... AWS for servers and Google for spreadsheets and email).
Hm ... now what do we do? More of the same probably.
Mix that with heavy AI bills, there isn't a lot of budget left for hiring.
AI is definitely disruptive to technical work though but how do you attribute it without confounding it with the economy weakness or just people transitioning in their own career? Not an easy task.
I know the stock markets are higher than ever due to AI investment. But the real economy may not be in a great shape hence the layoffs.
While the cause may be not be AI, but instead policy, e.g. tariffs. But also multiple conflicts ( Ukraine , Iran, Lebanon), leading higher oil , gas, critical raw material prices. China heavy exporting economy but not having domestic demand to fuel growth and bilateral trade with other countries.
All leading to less consumer consumption, slower economy , more layoffs to cut costs, less consumer consumption etc.
So no ai related but many external factors at the same time. But ai is hiding the pain due to the high stock market valuations. Which may explain that despite all the usual recession symptoms we aren’t treating it as a recession.
I am curious what other think.