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I'd say rust is the new Java, not Go.

Complete with rewriting everything in the trendy memory safe quasi-portable language that is faster than (poorly written) C in your personal microbenchmarks.

I work in enterprise, and java still reigns supreme. You see some (very limited) cracks coming from other jvm languages, but that's all. Nobody talks about Rust, rarely about C.
Which enterprise?

All the job postings I see are for C++ (Annoyingly. Fortran is better). Or Python obviously.

can confirm, some do C++ (more than C, I meant C as a language family in my original post)

Enterprise I've seen, all europe, deliberately vague: Banking, Telecoms, Trains, Insurance

Isn't .NET kinda on quite a rise in enterprise?
Not really, going open seems to only helped Microsoft shops to migrate to Linux for deployments, thus saving on server licences.

I work in a polyglot agency, and the RFPs asking for .NET have gone down, even key enterprise products like Sitecore, have moved away from .NET.

Without answering anything privately. Are you in Asia, Americas or Europe or Oceania?
Germany.

Sitecore example you can easily check, Sitecore XP/XM is still .NET Framework, all new products usually use other programming stacks as extension SDK, mainly Next.js or plain JS/TS.

Huh? Rust is nothing like Java. Java is a dynamic garbage-collected type-erased abomination with FizzBuzzEnterpriseEdition standard library.
People have been rewriting software in better languages ever since there was more than one programming language. Eventually people will be rewriting Rust programs in GoombaLang or whatever. Isn't this what we want?
I don't think this is what we want. We want people to maintain and incrementally improve existing software and tooling and not rewrite and change things all the time.
The point of the article is pretty much that you can pick stable technology instead of joining the treadmill of rewriting in whatever the new thing is. When people are rewriting rust programs in GoombaLang, C will still be around. When people rewrite GoombaLang into SmurfLang, C will still be around, etc
You can pick C, but that doesn't mean it's a good option to write something in it
(comment deleted)
None of them are nowhere near the Java tooling and ecosystem.
(2023 - hopefully the post lasts another 100 years!)
Two words: Visual Basic.
Terrific writing. Just terrific. Copied verbatim:

  The Lindy effect in software The longer a tech has been around, the more robust it is seen as compared to more recent ones, we often talk about a technology’s maturity The C language SQL has been around for a while, https://antonz.org/fancy-ql/ JS libraries seem to come and goes
I somehow missed the sarcasm and went to read the article. Was a bit confused for a minute there..
Still better than AI, it has personality and not paragraphs of empty prose
you might be confused as to what terrific means
Probably not, given that "terrific" was almost certainly used sarcastically here.
The Lindy effect is ultimately a kind of momentum. If that's the case, it seems like it's not the language itself, but rather the 'contracts,' 'interfaces,' and 'standards' that survive longer than the specific implementations a language provides.

Looking at the examples of Lindy that the OP mentioned, they're mostly at the infrastructure level. That's probably because many systems have been built on top of them, and the cost of replacing them is high.

On the flip side, things with weak Lindy effects are likely frontend frameworks or specific libraries. CSS methodologies are a good example of that.

In other words, the deeper something is, the harder it is to change, and as long as that deep language and its ecosystem aren't replaced, it will persist. As a counterexample, Fortran comes to mind—it's still being used today. Fortran has also evolved to exist beneath NumPy and Julia.

Ultimately, I think the core isn't the Lindy effect itself, but rather how many people you can attract commercially, and how many jobs you can create based on that.

In that sense, I think the next-generation language will succeed when it's used to build new infrastructure, and when the cost of refactoring becomes exponentially high. Right now, something that's growing similarly strong is CUDA. Personally, I'm always waiting to see what that language will be.

If we had followed this more seriously in the past, we would have still stuck on to writing C for enterprise applications and had way too many memory bugs. Aren’t we glad there was a demographic who said no to C and brought the revolutionary idea to use Java instead?

Couldn’t a Lindy enthusiast have gone “umm but isn’t Java too new and shouldn’t we just stick to C which is well trodden and understood??”

It’s easy to write sloganeering articles. But it doesn’t tell me anything specific.

Invoking Lindy is just bias to status quo. I prefer bias to progress but respecting chestertons fence.

I think the Lindy effect is less about making strong arguments about which tool to use in debates, and more about calling out and explaining a real life phenomenon.

I've invoked it in my job mostly to explain to younger developers why learning vim keybindings+terminal git usage while they have the most plasticity is most likely going to be a good bet for the remainder of their career, as editors, operating systems and associated keybindings & UI will change around them much more often than those fundamentals.

It's not a guarantee, and i wouldn't bet my entire business on the Lindy effect, but it is worth reflecting on it as an explanation of something that is paradoxical or not obvious.

[delayed]
You should learn internals as well, it's not mutually exclusive :)

But at some point you have to teach your fingers some movements that will ideally make you fast on as many machines, as many operating systems, as many editors and as many keyboards for as many years of your career as possible.

> Couldn’t a Lindy enthusiast have gone “umm but isn’t Java too new and shouldn’t we just stick to C which is well trodden and understood??”

I think people often misrepresent history because they view it with the benefit of hindsight. People who chose to use Java didn't do it to embrace a revolutionary idea, they were embracing an evolutionary one. It seemed like a natural optimization step, rather than a clean slate.

Most Jave devs were proficient C devs who found the idea of a platform independent C quite appealing.

That's the Lindy effect. C (the essence of it) survives in Java and right up to JS/python/go.

Lisp lives on in Javascript, Ruby, Julia, R, etc
A lot of the article is extremely useful for people creating software libraries, IMHO.

Under the section -

"Applying the Lindy effect to software engineering"

The suggestions are -

- Prudent Adoption

- Stick to Proven Foundation

- Plan for Longevity

- Embrace Evolution, Not Revolution

This is just conservatism from first principles. Why doesn’t it apply to sociology? LGBTQ, equality rights and so on? Lot more at stake.
I really like the concept of novelty budget: keep most parts boring and use new stuff only where you can gain an advantage from it.
Lindy's has been completely out of business for over a decade after starting over at least once under new ownership.