This continues to be reported as an asymmetric war. Russia attacks people and seeks to take legitimacy from the Ukranian government by loss of belief it can prevent deaths. It may work. Churchill's "eels get used to skinning" about the blitz was only partly true.
Ukraine attacks energy infrastructure which destroys Russian capacity to run industry, heat and light the population and earn foreign currency. Which path succeeds first is a good question.
Prior write ups of belief under ww2 bombing and Vietnam war era bombing suggests morale is harder to destroy but not impossible. America absolutely torched the Vietnamese economy but they won.
The economic damage is self evident but Russia has a higher capacity economically speaking.
Russian popular psychology about war as reported in the west is sometimes inexplicably dichotomous, the enemy is "evil" and characterised as "the invader" but Russian deaths are very much "well, what can you do" despite both at root being due to Russian expansionism, not Ukranian invasion. It's hard not to believe a degree of servile cynicism has set in "if your numbers up, there's nothing you can do"
Western write-ups of front line Russian troops emphasises brutality and corruption and also complete shambolic supply chain logistics, mining 1960s vintage soviet hardware to maintain state, repeating a story of ww2 vintage troops sending toilets and cooking gear home as unimagined wealth, except now it's pillaged dishwashers and cookers.
What's reasonably clear is a lack of movement, a war of static trenchlines, and an emerging rear line defensive problem for Russia which won't go away. What was once a remote problem for remote regions to fix, is now a home front nightmare, echoing one foisted on Kiev for the duration of the war. You can't hide 5 mile petrol queues.
I continue to believe Russia has functionally lost the war and may even lose far East territory to China if it cannot show an ability to manage its economy. Winning the peace is about who funds reconstruction and what you make with it. Ukraine is going to be a modern day post ww1 Czech Republic, a powerhouse of materiel and weapons and microelectronics. It's already exporting drone tech.
1 comment
[ 1.1 ms ] story [ 7.2 ms ] threadUkraine attacks energy infrastructure which destroys Russian capacity to run industry, heat and light the population and earn foreign currency. Which path succeeds first is a good question.
Prior write ups of belief under ww2 bombing and Vietnam war era bombing suggests morale is harder to destroy but not impossible. America absolutely torched the Vietnamese economy but they won.
The economic damage is self evident but Russia has a higher capacity economically speaking.
Russian popular psychology about war as reported in the west is sometimes inexplicably dichotomous, the enemy is "evil" and characterised as "the invader" but Russian deaths are very much "well, what can you do" despite both at root being due to Russian expansionism, not Ukranian invasion. It's hard not to believe a degree of servile cynicism has set in "if your numbers up, there's nothing you can do"
Western write-ups of front line Russian troops emphasises brutality and corruption and also complete shambolic supply chain logistics, mining 1960s vintage soviet hardware to maintain state, repeating a story of ww2 vintage troops sending toilets and cooking gear home as unimagined wealth, except now it's pillaged dishwashers and cookers.
What's reasonably clear is a lack of movement, a war of static trenchlines, and an emerging rear line defensive problem for Russia which won't go away. What was once a remote problem for remote regions to fix, is now a home front nightmare, echoing one foisted on Kiev for the duration of the war. You can't hide 5 mile petrol queues.
I continue to believe Russia has functionally lost the war and may even lose far East territory to China if it cannot show an ability to manage its economy. Winning the peace is about who funds reconstruction and what you make with it. Ukraine is going to be a modern day post ww1 Czech Republic, a powerhouse of materiel and weapons and microelectronics. It's already exporting drone tech.