This will go down GREAT... Gulf oil will have to handle a 20% tariff vs. the rest of the world to get to market. Fertilizer, etc, anything made in the Gulf will be hit with this tariff independent of any trade agreement that might be in place with the US. Great, great way to encourage production from other regions of the world and with substitute products.
Although to be honest, oil companies will just charge everybody the tariff and pocket the profits.
That'll work until Iran starts sinking ships trusting Trump's word for them "controlling" Hormuz. Which should be more or less the first time a ship tries to cross without an Iranian blessing.
In the end, they'll pay extortion fees to two parties.
BTW, what will the US do? Sink oil carriers? Board them and take them by force regardless of their flag?
The Golden Age of Piracy lasted between 1650s and the 1730s, and it involved most of the oceans and most ocean trading nations.
Board or sink anyone who don't surrender to the extortion. Flags only work if nations respect them, and nations that are willing to pirate ships is very unlikely to respect flags.
The Hormuz strait is now basically the same as coast of Somalia, except that now the pirates has missiles, rockets and torpedoes.
Whilst I'm glad I got myself an EV, I'm entirely aware of the society-wide effects this will have on, literally, almost everything, from general inflation to food insecurity due to the fertilizer situation.
How much money has this single bad decision cost the population of the planet?
Straight up $5,000 my parents had to pay extra for their flight to Europe which was already booked. And that was just for changed flights due to Emirates (I think) being grounded.
Trump will be richer just by dint of having made everyone else poorer by a measurable amount.
This looks like seeing the Iranian demands to be paid for transit, and saying "Nice business model; let's steal it".
But there's a larger point here. Iran has been using the ability to close the Strait as leverage. "We can deny the transit of oil, so you have to not trample on our interests." Well, the US also has the capability to close the Strait, and therefore the same leverage - including that leverage over Iranian oil.
And by Trump saying this, he's pointing that out. Pointing it out in a way the Iranians should understand, because it's the same language that they used.
I don't know if Trump is deliberately doing that, or just doing an extortion threat.
US closing the strait also serves Iranian interests.
Charging a tariff is just the cherry on the top in that if Iran charges a tariff it's a way to get hard currency in spite of international sanctions, and if the US charges a tariff creates a slush fund for oligarchy and grift. Everyone else suffers.
Denying traffic is easy.
Ensuring safe passage is harder. Especially because maritime insurers have the last say. Every vessel stuck in the gulf continues to pay premiums. Every vessel that risks the transit has the potential of being struck by a missile.
What does the insurer choose?
"The U.S.A... will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World," he said.
Wasn't Iran only considering 1 or 2% (less than 5%) as the toll ...? Iran, right now, has a slight advantage over the Trump and Netanyahu administration as both are under pressure from their electorate, due to the looming elections. However, that also means both have very little diplomatic room as any concession they make to Iran will be showcased as "weakness" by their domestic opposition (whether it is or isn't).
Due to the huge trust deficit between the American and Iranian leaders, best course for Iran maybe to hold of all diplomatic engagements till the elections, even if that means they will have to bear the brunt of the American military for a few months more. It's a very risky approach as they will also have to watch out for the Trump administration trying to revive the Abraham Accords and try and normalise relations between the Saudis and the Israelis (that seems to one of the options Trump and Netanyahu are considering as a way to politically salvage something from this middle-eastern mess they created. ( https://www.axios.com/2026/05/24/trump-iran-war-israel-musli... ).
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[ 3.0 ms ] story [ 34.3 ms ] threadAlthough to be honest, oil companies will just charge everybody the tariff and pocket the profits.
In the end, they'll pay extortion fees to two parties.
BTW, what will the US do? Sink oil carriers? Board them and take them by force regardless of their flag?
Board or sink anyone who don't surrender to the extortion. Flags only work if nations respect them, and nations that are willing to pirate ships is very unlikely to respect flags.
The Hormuz strait is now basically the same as coast of Somalia, except that now the pirates has missiles, rockets and torpedoes.
How much money has this single bad decision cost the population of the planet?
Straight up $5,000 my parents had to pay extra for their flight to Europe which was already booked. And that was just for changed flights due to Emirates (I think) being grounded.
Trump will be richer just by dint of having made everyone else poorer by a measurable amount.
But there's a larger point here. Iran has been using the ability to close the Strait as leverage. "We can deny the transit of oil, so you have to not trample on our interests." Well, the US also has the capability to close the Strait, and therefore the same leverage - including that leverage over Iranian oil.
And by Trump saying this, he's pointing that out. Pointing it out in a way the Iranians should understand, because it's the same language that they used.
I don't know if Trump is deliberately doing that, or just doing an extortion threat.
US closing the strait also serves Iranian interests.
Charging a tariff is just the cherry on the top in that if Iran charges a tariff it's a way to get hard currency in spite of international sanctions, and if the US charges a tariff creates a slush fund for oligarchy and grift. Everyone else suffers.
“Control” is ambiguous.
Due to the huge trust deficit between the American and Iranian leaders, best course for Iran maybe to hold of all diplomatic engagements till the elections, even if that means they will have to bear the brunt of the American military for a few months more. It's a very risky approach as they will also have to watch out for the Trump administration trying to revive the Abraham Accords and try and normalise relations between the Saudis and the Israelis (that seems to one of the options Trump and Netanyahu are considering as a way to politically salvage something from this middle-eastern mess they created. ( https://www.axios.com/2026/05/24/trump-iran-war-israel-musli... ).