It's a good news and a milestone to celebrate but if we count all energy and not only electricity and not only developed world then the progress is not as fast unfortunately [1].
Not a long time ago I've seen a post arguing based on the data [1] that renewables are irrelevant and should not be taken seriously and fossils will the main source for the lifetime.
Part of this is about a new way to store energy. In the Netherlands, they have started storing heat energy with sand, in Germany, they are using bricks. This has some advantages. It allows the direct use of heat for industrial processes and heating industrial and commercial facilities. They can either convert energy into electricity or use the heat directly. This technology can be used with a wide variety of energy sources. This includes nuclear because it allows thermal storage of excess heat from nuclear energy. This kind of setup is supposed to be more stable for the grid and more reliable for storing energy.
I have heard this news many times, technically not wrong, but each time with a different metric. This time it is production over a year.
It reminds me of the Voyager probes that left the solar system half a dozen times, each time taking a different definition of what marks the edge of the solar system.
Anyways, we are now getting to sensible metrics, which is good.
That doesn't seem like a problem as long as the metrics chosen are trending towards greater achievements and are not just attempts at moving the goalposts.
I'm confused by the US conservatives' full court press for fossil fuels and against wind/solar. I believe it's mostly about protecting existing money/power structures, but I don't really know. I mean, where does all Trump's energy on this topic come from? Is it owning the libs or courting donors or the Heritage Foundation/AEI?
If it's really about protecting fossil fuel wealth, is there a long-term plan or are they just juicing quarterly earnings as long as they can? Is there a serious belief that wind/solar is a fad?
This isn't the kind of thought that begets rational discussion, but if you can avoid cynicism and sarcasm, I am curious to hear what the smart people of HN think.
I knew as soon as I read your comment that multiple people would object to your use of 'conservative' instead of focus on the point (as if the opposing political views lack integrity, values, respect for law, etc).
In any case I think the reason comes down to money/power structures and short-term thinking. We have two corporate controlled parties with one that is wholly owned and the other which allows a tiny sliver of dissent. Fossil fuels will never completely go away but anything that questions the entire infrastructure (worldwide, including the need for bases in producing countries), is seen as a threat to the status quo. In this way I don't see it as any different than teams protecting their turf in a large company which stifles innovation.
My favourite theory is that the climate crisis is stressful to think about, reducing its impact requires everyone to make sacrifices, and there’s a lack of control over the situation.
People will be inclined to latch on to anyone making an alternative suggestion: it’s a hoax, it will all be fine, the real problem is those people making you make sacrifices. It’s a relief to think that way, because the alternative is harrowing. It’s an easy sell for populists who are willing to say anything to get votes.
See also Covid: it’s easier to think of it as some kind of hoax than parse the true horror of the situation. Someone comes along and says it’s far less bad than the news is reporting, that these solutions aren’t necessary. You don’t need to feel guilty that you want to break isolation, find masking uncomfortable and find the jab unpleasant, because it’s all made up.
Not so much this specific structure as the structure at all, the ownership of energy resources.
In a country like the US somebody owns the coal. They didn't make that coal, but we decided they can own it anyway, and so even though they didn't make the coal and it's never going to be replaced, just destroyed for all time, they get to capture the economic value from that.
Nobody, even in the US, owns the wind, and a wind farm doesn't capture some finite wind and gradually use it up, there's more wind where that came from, essentially forever.
Solar is even worse, because it works at a tiny scale. Owning your own wind turbine almost never makes sense but owning some solar panels makes sense for most owner-occupiers, especially if you live outside a city.
I don't think Trump would care whether the guy handing him an "America's Best Ever President" trophy and a $5Bn check is a Californian Sunlight Baron or a Wyoming Coal Baron, but the problem is that there can't be a Californian Sunlight Baron. You can't own California's sunlight, that's not a thing.
This point is very useful to me. I consider myself a pretty good engineer and a not so good entrepreneur. Maybe I'm not so good at it because I find it far more interesting to think every detail of PKCE, something only tangentially related to my work, than I do to think about how to make all the money.
It would never have occurred to me that the appeal of carbon based fuel over renewables is that carbon base fuels are not renewable. There is less of a moat. Huh!
I love renewables, but the problem with solar is the lack of inertia (literally). Big spinning masses like steam turbines have an easier time staying on network frequency. Wind turbines better than solar of course so I hope we continue to have diversity there.
This is interesting. They can't make AC inverters more reliable than spinning motors? I thought the problem was more about supply not matching demand quickly enough.
Thank goodness the energy policy of the US is being dictated by a single, highly intelligent man that isn't falling for the clean energy hoax, a man who consistently puts the interests of the people over his own interests. It's sad that the rest of the world is falling for this scam. </sarcasm; gosh, i hope it was obvious>
The next frontier will be meat consumption. Particularly red meat.
A single 1/4 beef hamburger emits 7-12 kg of carbon[1]. Compared to ~1.5kg of carbon driving your car 3 miles[2].
Not telling you to go full vegetarian, but I'm personally far less interested in a beef product unless you're going to guarantee its an extremely expert prepared steak. Most beef is mediocre.
This is the most Euro commie thing I've heard in a long while.
Sure, get rid of factory farms and CAFO's, but I see nothing wrong with raising animals on family farms where they eat a nutritious diet in line with what they evolved to eat.
Grass for cows, pasture and bugs for poultry, silvopasture for pigs. Anyone who wants to go vegan for ethical or environmental reasons is fine, but I hate this idea that all of us have to fall in line with your crazy ideas.
In the spring I will get 3 cows with calf-a-foot who will graze the immense amount of herbal leys we have, as well as maintain our SSSI fields, and then in a few years some of them, the meanest, will go off to the abatoir to become the very finest and well fed beef that money can buy.
We'll expand the herd, and do mob grazing to maintain our species rich grasslands and our SSSI fields, while also providing the best beef to those that appreciate it, family first of course.
Grass fed and pasture fed, are not good enough. The cattle need a wide variety of food, which starts with more than grass or a monoculture pasture.
Getting people to agree to the same cultural diet is about as easy as getting people to agree to the same religion.
If we could change culture and the global diet, there are many exciting low carbon foods being promoted, especially in aquaculture. Shellfish and seaweed do not rely on artificial fertilizer, fresh water, or people burning down the rain forest.
Breaking news: "Wind and solar overtake fossil fuels in <insert_European_country> for the first time" for the 10th time this year.
Also on other unrelated news German economy is rocketing to the bottom, their industry is dying with thousands of layoffs, closing factories, and complains on energy prices and they can't even maintain their rail and road networks for the first time since forever. The signs of decline are not even signs anymore they are bright neon signs. But at least we are taxing cows farting. While china is steamrolling ahead and we are regulated to death by bureaucrats.
Your cause/effect doesn't have all that much truth to it with regards to rail.
German rail has been an under-invested in mess since reunification, it's a long slide not a recent one. They are finally investing the kind of amounts in it they need to, to actually revive it to what it should be. It's going to be a long road to actually get there, of course.
In other words it's been approximately 2.5 years since prices recovered. If Germany industry can be irrecoverably damaged by 3 years of high power bills, maybe there were deeper issues.
True. Less than 40% of the world's fossil fuel energy goes to generating electricity. The rest goes to transportation, industrial processes, material feedstock, and direct heating - which are not accounted for in this metric!
"Renewable alternatives cover half of 40% of fossil fuel demand" would be more accurate. Still a win, but it's not "overtaking fossil fuels" by any definition.
That's because Germany doesn't need so much energy anymore.
The heavy industry is disrupting, instead you get a climate anxiety and migration industries.
41 comments
[ 2.7 ms ] story [ 31.9 ms ] threadNot a long time ago I've seen a post arguing based on the data [1] that renewables are irrelevant and should not be taken seriously and fossils will the main source for the lifetime.
[1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-energy-substitutio...
https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/zone/FR/live/fifteen_min... Anyone is free to compare France and Germany here.
For an entire year, that year being 2025.
Also, yes, absolute generation from fossil fuels is declining quickly. The total generation is changing way more slowly than that share.
It reminds me of the Voyager probes that left the solar system half a dozen times, each time taking a different definition of what marks the edge of the solar system.
Anyways, we are now getting to sensible metrics, which is good.
If it's really about protecting fossil fuel wealth, is there a long-term plan or are they just juicing quarterly earnings as long as they can? Is there a serious belief that wind/solar is a fad?
This isn't the kind of thought that begets rational discussion, but if you can avoid cynicism and sarcasm, I am curious to hear what the smart people of HN think.
In any case I think the reason comes down to money/power structures and short-term thinking. We have two corporate controlled parties with one that is wholly owned and the other which allows a tiny sliver of dissent. Fossil fuels will never completely go away but anything that questions the entire infrastructure (worldwide, including the need for bases in producing countries), is seen as a threat to the status quo. In this way I don't see it as any different than teams protecting their turf in a large company which stifles innovation.
People will be inclined to latch on to anyone making an alternative suggestion: it’s a hoax, it will all be fine, the real problem is those people making you make sacrifices. It’s a relief to think that way, because the alternative is harrowing. It’s an easy sell for populists who are willing to say anything to get votes.
See also Covid: it’s easier to think of it as some kind of hoax than parse the true horror of the situation. Someone comes along and says it’s far less bad than the news is reporting, that these solutions aren’t necessary. You don’t need to feel guilty that you want to break isolation, find masking uncomfortable and find the jab unpleasant, because it’s all made up.
In a country like the US somebody owns the coal. They didn't make that coal, but we decided they can own it anyway, and so even though they didn't make the coal and it's never going to be replaced, just destroyed for all time, they get to capture the economic value from that.
Nobody, even in the US, owns the wind, and a wind farm doesn't capture some finite wind and gradually use it up, there's more wind where that came from, essentially forever.
Solar is even worse, because it works at a tiny scale. Owning your own wind turbine almost never makes sense but owning some solar panels makes sense for most owner-occupiers, especially if you live outside a city.
I don't think Trump would care whether the guy handing him an "America's Best Ever President" trophy and a $5Bn check is a Californian Sunlight Baron or a Wyoming Coal Baron, but the problem is that there can't be a Californian Sunlight Baron. You can't own California's sunlight, that's not a thing.
It would never have occurred to me that the appeal of carbon based fuel over renewables is that carbon base fuels are not renewable. There is less of a moat. Huh!
This undoubtedly explains why the current US administration is openly hostile to it.
A single 1/4 beef hamburger emits 7-12 kg of carbon[1]. Compared to ~1.5kg of carbon driving your car 3 miles[2].
Not telling you to go full vegetarian, but I'm personally far less interested in a beef product unless you're going to guarantee its an extremely expert prepared steak. Most beef is mediocre.
1 - https://ourworldindata.org/environmental-impacts-of-food
2 - https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/greenhouse-gas-emissions-t...
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/new-nasa-study-tallies-carbon-...
>Stoked by Canada’s warmest and driest conditions in decades, extreme forest fires in 2023 released about 640 million metric tons of carbon
Sure, get rid of factory farms and CAFO's, but I see nothing wrong with raising animals on family farms where they eat a nutritious diet in line with what they evolved to eat.
Grass for cows, pasture and bugs for poultry, silvopasture for pigs. Anyone who wants to go vegan for ethical or environmental reasons is fine, but I hate this idea that all of us have to fall in line with your crazy ideas.
We'll expand the herd, and do mob grazing to maintain our species rich grasslands and our SSSI fields, while also providing the best beef to those that appreciate it, family first of course.
Grass fed and pasture fed, are not good enough. The cattle need a wide variety of food, which starts with more than grass or a monoculture pasture.
https://www.merkur.de/reise/reduzieren-sollte-besser-reisen-...
If we could change culture and the global diet, there are many exciting low carbon foods being promoted, especially in aquaculture. Shellfish and seaweed do not rely on artificial fertilizer, fresh water, or people burning down the rain forest.
Also on other unrelated news German economy is rocketing to the bottom, their industry is dying with thousands of layoffs, closing factories, and complains on energy prices and they can't even maintain their rail and road networks for the first time since forever. The signs of decline are not even signs anymore they are bright neon signs. But at least we are taxing cows farting. While china is steamrolling ahead and we are regulated to death by bureaucrats.
German rail has been an under-invested in mess since reunification, it's a long slide not a recent one. They are finally investing the kind of amounts in it they need to, to actually revive it to what it should be. It's going to be a long road to actually get there, of course.
Paywall but a decent read on that note: https://www.ft.com/content/db75e347-b13b-4753-8130-6301bb55c...
https://www.dw.com/en/high-electricity-prices-a-threat-to-ge...
In other words it's been approximately 2.5 years since prices recovered. If Germany industry can be irrecoverably damaged by 3 years of high power bills, maybe there were deeper issues.
If you compare e.g. with a country like Sweden or France they have been free from fossil fuels for electricity since the build outs in the 70s-80s.
Also Germany is an importer of significant electricity (e.g nuclear power from France).
But due to a stagnant economy and no increase in electricity demand - yes, I guess this milestone is now passed...
"Renewable alternatives cover half of 40% of fossil fuel demand" would be more accurate. Still a win, but it's not "overtaking fossil fuels" by any definition.