India [0], Indonesia [1], Australia [2] (thanks to India [3]), and others are also doing this. And other states like Vietnam [4] and Brazil [5] are also expanding their coal footprint.
A number of high value industrial products like fertilizers and steel have a carbon dependency that cannot be alleviated and which most of those states are expanding.
If current intensity holds til 2050 (and based on infrastructure and manufacturing dealflow in ASEAN, India, and the GCC it will), we are breaking the 2.1*C threshold by then.
It is NOT fatalistic or doomerism to accept that. This needs to be assumed as the base case because most climate projections are heavily optimistic.
I've been following PRC CT-X for few years, downstream effects still getting missed by analysts. At over $60/70 CT-x become profitable, CT-x build out last decade can only be rationalized as parallel strategic tech stack (i.e. blockade) or hedge against future oil price rise that has paid off passively. Either way, at high oil price PRC now has structural discount on industrial/petchem inputs at scale which synergizes with their already comprehnsive supply chains. They can displace ~4mb of industrial oil use, I think CTx already at ~2mbd equivalent and growing at 300kbd per year. Other consideration is PRC also going to displace like ~4mbd-8mbd of transport oil eventually, PRC extracts ~4mbd, is the worlds LARGEST refiner, and none of that expensive oil infra is likely going to sit idle/goto waste. So expect a PRC that uses less oil to sell more finished oil, and continue being massive swing buyer, i.e. their SPR and refinery size and reducing oil dependency will position them to be worlds largest oil SELLER, i.e. doesn't matter US somehow drills more, PRC can by more/store unfinished crude at volumes that can shape oil prices, while refining and selling finished oil for every barrel that gets electrifed / ct-xed. PRC will in all likely hood be an electrostate that has resells petro.
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[ 3.0 ms ] story [ 14.6 ms ] threadA number of high value industrial products like fertilizers and steel have a carbon dependency that cannot be alleviated and which most of those states are expanding.
If current intensity holds til 2050 (and based on infrastructure and manufacturing dealflow in ASEAN, India, and the GCC it will), we are breaking the 2.1*C threshold by then.
It is NOT fatalistic or doomerism to accept that. This needs to be assumed as the base case because most climate projections are heavily optimistic.
[0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-clears-4-billi...
[1] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indonesia-offer-ener...
[2] - https://www.energymining.sa.gov.au/industry/energy-resources...
[3] - https://www.pm.gov.au/media/collaborating-india-energy-and-r...
[4] - https://vnexpress.net/viet-nam-se-khai-thac-thu-nghiem-be-th...
[5] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/why-coal-still-cling...