There is nothing to see here yet other than their stock popped 50%. Based on
unpublished data...
- The initial 49% number comes from a very small phase 2 trial that had only 157 patients.
And their original p-value was 0.053
- This phase 3 news so far is nothing more than a press release. They have not published hazard ratio, or confidence interval, their event counts or survival curves.
- They met the endppoint as used in the press release means nothing, until
they publish the actual 3 data, so my money is at the end this will be
a kind of marginal effect that researchers will struggle to reproduce for years
This is the type of study that will take 3 to 4 years to validate or dismiss,
in the meanwhile stock is up 50%....
7 comments
[ 8.1 ms ] story [ 397 ms ] threadWell done to Merck and Moderna.
- The initial 49% number comes from a very small phase 2 trial that had only 157 patients. And their original p-value was 0.053
- This phase 3 news so far is nothing more than a press release. They have not published hazard ratio, or confidence interval, their event counts or survival curves.
- They met the endppoint as used in the press release means nothing, until they publish the actual 3 data, so my money is at the end this will be a kind of marginal effect that researchers will struggle to reproduce for years
This is the type of study that will take 3 to 4 years to validate or dismiss, in the meanwhile stock is up 50%....