This is a non-story; for those who haven’t read them, prospectuses include every potential risk under the sun. There will be risks that never make the news alongside the exciting backlash.
“Everyone hates us and the very fundamentals of what we are promising, will fight to prevent us establishing infrastructure, may pass laws to limit our activities in their states, and will extend that hatred to our major investors, potentially materially damaging their businesses” is not a common thing in an IPO prospectus, I imagine, for quite obvious reasons.
But that is the gist of the situation is it not? If it’s an honest statement, it is going to say something like this.
Which prospectus got close to anything like this? People hate SpaceX products less.
I'm sure you can find similar stuff in the prospectuses of many controversial companies spanning oil, cigarettes, alcohol, cannabis, adult entertainment, guns, gambling, defense, etc... Anything someone is trying hard to ban.
One risk they should include is: Our vision is working on a product and business model, that if we succeed, will make our business model and product obsolete.
I expect this will effectively be stated, that their success will depend on developing a succession of products and evolving the company in response to the market climate.
negative sentiment towards AI and data centers will be listed as a risk factor
The fact that the technology can "hallucinate" and is unreliable is not just a "sentiment" --- it is a well established fact. And it is more than a risk, it is virtually guaranteed to happen if you use it repeatedly.
Calling it "sentiment" is like an "alternative fact".
its a bit sad that the public can't grasp tools that have high variance but still end up being useful. lots of things in real life follow the same pattern yet when it comes to AI..
I said it [1][2] when OpenAI was supposed to go public "next week" and I'll say it again today: neither Antropic nor OpenAI are going public in the coming few years.
The moment they go public is the moment the music stops and everyone who still has their head in the sand realizes that they now can't deny there's no money to make in selling AI models, only money to lose.
I think the AI industry desperately needs one of the two to get to IPO for its own sense of identity, though; the morale boost and the sense of validation are crucial at this point.
I think it’s possible that the remaining power of the delusion gets Anthropic to IPO.
I don't know if they will never go public,but their business is clearly not profitable as it is today.
I'm a heavy user but the moment they stop subsidizing I will pick something else because I know how damn expensive it actually is (my usage is ~4k usd/month, but paying 200 in their max plan).
Anthropic is absolutely going public now that Leopold got taken for a ride and the market is back at its very tip top. There is no other option at this point. It is imminent.
What you get wrong is who the music stops for. It stops for us (retail). They dump their bags and consolidate into a more manageable business in the long run. S&P drops 10% and life moves on in a few years.
I think you’re right about OpenAI though. They got outplayed at every step and wont go public.
It all implodes once they can't afford to lock up all the RAM and SSD, and/or when the reduced resources environment(private/China) models get good enough to negate frontier lead / become equivalent (almost there)
Interesting how that whole conversation about "AGI tomorrow" completely disappeared and it's all about making money now.
I'm a fan of claude and I have been using their top tier plans because it's so damn cheap comparing to my real usage. They will have to stop subsidizing this at some point, and people (include me) will flee. What they are gonna do?
The risk is that we rise up and violently lynch the elites when they try to implement autonomous AI mass surveillance backed by an army of robots to quell the growing unrest of unemployed "useless eaters".
It's a big risk and the only ways to mitigate it are either:
a) build the dystopian system quickly and violently killing all dissenters on sight
b) build a utopian system where robots build our houses, grow our food and serve us 24/7
scenario c) Mass surveillance is used to reduce crime in high crime areas usually ignored by police, and public safety is provided to all citizens, even the poor and working class?
How about the army of robots helps to clean the streets, provide services to the poor and working classes, and provide high quality low cost housing, clean water, and livable cities?
I hope this is Larry Ellison's account otherwise the naivety on display in your comment is what I would expect from a preteen that hasn't ever watched the news.
We live in a world of greed and corruption, but magically the powers that be truly find Jesus in their hearts and donate all their money to 'clean the streets, provide services to the poor and working classes, and provide high quality low cost housing, clean water, and livable cities'?
I guess preteens live in Singapore and Japan, because their poor live in what by US standards is "crime free" cities, which are also, by US standards, clean and well serviced.
Of course that's just an impression but my point is that your dystopian view is a morality tale with bad villains and some implied good guys.
Life is not a comic book, there are good versions of the future, all government isn't evil, and sometimes things improve for everyone.
I’m not a pessimist, I am fundamentally an anarchist. Government is bad, lobbies are bad and both get exponentially worse the larger the country. That’s why Singapore is more governable than the USA.
Things can certainly improve, but I have no hope for the machine god in the hands of a couple billionaires to solve world hunger. Life is indeed not a comic book, and Sam Altman is not Bruce Wayne.
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[ 0.21 ms ] story [ 14.6 ms ] threadBut that is the gist of the situation is it not? If it’s an honest statement, it is going to say something like this.
Which prospectus got close to anything like this? People hate SpaceX products less.
The fact that the technology can "hallucinate" and is unreliable is not just a "sentiment" --- it is a well established fact. And it is more than a risk, it is virtually guaranteed to happen if you use it repeatedly.
Calling it "sentiment" is like an "alternative fact".
The moment they go public is the moment the music stops and everyone who still has their head in the sand realizes that they now can't deny there's no money to make in selling AI models, only money to lose.
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48211272
[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48358945
I think the AI industry desperately needs one of the two to get to IPO for its own sense of identity, though; the morale boost and the sense of validation are crucial at this point.
I think it’s possible that the remaining power of the delusion gets Anthropic to IPO.
I don't know if they will never go public,but their business is clearly not profitable as it is today.
I'm a heavy user but the moment they stop subsidizing I will pick something else because I know how damn expensive it actually is (my usage is ~4k usd/month, but paying 200 in their max plan).
I guess lot of people will do the same.
What you get wrong is who the music stops for. It stops for us (retail). They dump their bags and consolidate into a more manageable business in the long run. S&P drops 10% and life moves on in a few years.
I think you’re right about OpenAI though. They got outplayed at every step and wont go public.
I'm a fan of claude and I have been using their top tier plans because it's so damn cheap comparing to my real usage. They will have to stop subsidizing this at some point, and people (include me) will flee. What they are gonna do?
Interesting times we live in.
It's a big risk and the only ways to mitigate it are either:
a) build the dystopian system quickly and violently killing all dissenters on sight
b) build a utopian system where robots build our houses, grow our food and serve us 24/7
Just a hunch they'll try option A.
scenario c) Mass surveillance is used to reduce crime in high crime areas usually ignored by police, and public safety is provided to all citizens, even the poor and working class?
How about the army of robots helps to clean the streets, provide services to the poor and working classes, and provide high quality low cost housing, clean water, and livable cities?
We live in a world of greed and corruption, but magically the powers that be truly find Jesus in their hearts and donate all their money to 'clean the streets, provide services to the poor and working classes, and provide high quality low cost housing, clean water, and livable cities'?
Of course that's just an impression but my point is that your dystopian view is a morality tale with bad villains and some implied good guys.
Life is not a comic book, there are good versions of the future, all government isn't evil, and sometimes things improve for everyone.
Things can certainly improve, but I have no hope for the machine god in the hands of a couple billionaires to solve world hunger. Life is indeed not a comic book, and Sam Altman is not Bruce Wayne.