The sign in is required for detailed plans to save the plans. Those plans also incure real comupte on the server. QC results are based on a cache in the browser and don't need sign in.
This doesn't know the important part. Will I live to 62 as the earliest of my ancestors died, or 98 as the latest? My family history is about average for lifespan but that is a big difference. If I live to 62 I should retire at 50 - or perhaps I shouldn't have bothered saving at all since the growth isn't there. Of medical advances make me love to 150 I should save until I'm 80 which will be a nice income to really enjoy the rest of my life.
I want more defined benefit accounts, but they are hard to find
For me no, but for a few thousand people it isn't to hard. Which is why I look for defined benefit plans that are not scams, and in frustrated that I can't fibd them
Foresight Planner is not yet available in your region.
We're launching in Canada (excluding Quebec) first. We don't yet support Quebec, because we don't yet offer the product in French. If you'd like us to let you know when we expand, email hi@foresightplanner.com.
Foresight Planner n'est pas encore disponible dans votre région. Nous lançons d'abord au Canada (hors Québec). Pour être informé·e de l'élargissement de notre service, écrivez à hi@foresightplanner.com.
Why not let people try it from abroad? Not in the USA? No luck.
Why does the withdrawal rate need to be a multiple of 0.5%?
It's curious that the highest chance was associated with the highest (100%) stock ratio.
I'm in NZ and it worked. It gave me US figures and numbers though. And I find there are existing FIRE calculators already out there that are tried and true.
Glad it ran, but the numbers aren't US. Once you login, "Other, rest of world" gives you a gross projection with tax and benefits off. The returns come from the same 25 country bootstrap everyone gets, with the domestic country resampled rather than pinned to the US.
What's genuinely missing for you is NZ tax and NZ Super. So it worked, but you got the generic version.
On the existing calculators, they're good and I use them too. Most are tried and true against US history, which is the one sample where equities did unusually well. That's the gap I was after.
I didn't want to put in my email address in order to access the detailed calculator... The quick check doesn't have nearly enough information to give anyone an idea of what actually to expect...
It's really nice to see a simulator that removes the home country bias. So many of these types of simulations use American data. But that's pretty extreme cherry-picking: America has had a pretty exceptional run these last 100+ years. Any retirement simulator cannot assume that America's exceptional growth will continue. Maybe it will, but you cannot plan on a maybe.
huh, yesterday I vibe coded a similar tool. It lets me set my current savings, investment, retirement. Expected yearly savings, expected number of years of work left. After retirement, only withdrawals are allowed (investments, savings still get returns tho)
Codex suggested a bunch of improvements: monte carlo, investment volatility, expense inflation, capital gains tax etc. One thing codex didn't ask about was social security. So that's another factor that could be improved.
I wanted to know 'do I really need to work 30 more years?'
What would be really interesting is discovering an attainable formula where my investments outpace my expenses. Or, what variables let me die with basically $0 in the bank
At the end, I realized I had no idea what the calculator was REALLY doing. So it could be right... it could be really wrong too. Having historical data might help solve those issues
It will be far more interesting to show a model of how to have a successful retirement with more or less "normal" financial disasters, such as not making enough money to save in a high-COL area, losing your job in your 40s or later, followed by one to two years of unemployment, and then the replacement job pays a fraction of what you made before. There are other financial disasters, such as divorce or a major medical problem, that don't have to lead to bankruptcy, just a serious financial hit. Or even a model of what we have today, where people don't make enough money to save for retirement given the high COL.
That's a great feedback. I think I can add these scenarios as new features to the life events section. I have also thought of allowing to specify correlation between income and markets performance.
If you are interested in beta testing these feature, shoot me an email at hi@foresightplanner.com
It's really sobering how much your use of international data impacts the failure rates. If you limit yourself to US historical data then I think about 3.5% withdrawal rate is bulletproof. But in your data I managed to get 2.2% failure rate when withdrawing just 2.5% p.a for 20 years!
34 comments
[ 0.24 ms ] story [ 9.0 ms ] threadBrother I have a better claude code vibe app than this in an hour
You need to really talk to a financial planner and learn what the proper inputs are
I want more defined benefit accounts, but they are hard to find
Foresight Planner is not yet available in your region. We're launching in Canada (excluding Quebec) first. We don't yet support Quebec, because we don't yet offer the product in French. If you'd like us to let you know when we expand, email hi@foresightplanner.com.
Foresight Planner n'est pas encore disponible dans votre région. Nous lançons d'abord au Canada (hors Québec). Pour être informé·e de l'élargissement de notre service, écrivez à hi@foresightplanner.com.
Region: CA-QC
Something is wrong with the calculations/simulations.
If I can't trust the Quick Check, why would I trust anything else on the site?
What's genuinely missing for you is NZ tax and NZ Super. So it worked, but you got the generic version.
On the existing calculators, they're good and I use them too. Most are tried and true against US history, which is the one sample where equities did unusually well. That's the gap I was after.
Codex suggested a bunch of improvements: monte carlo, investment volatility, expense inflation, capital gains tax etc. One thing codex didn't ask about was social security. So that's another factor that could be improved.
I wanted to know 'do I really need to work 30 more years?'
What would be really interesting is discovering an attainable formula where my investments outpace my expenses. Or, what variables let me die with basically $0 in the bank
At the end, I realized I had no idea what the calculator was REALLY doing. So it could be right... it could be really wrong too. Having historical data might help solve those issues
If you are interested in beta testing these feature, shoot me an email at hi@foresightplanner.com