I live in Japan and five years ago my drinking buddy at the time only had USD and was about to get on the shinkansen. He needed Yen ASAP. So he said, "dude I'll trade you a 100USD for 10000YEN." At the time it was an easy fifteen bucks or something profit after exchange, so I said, sure, here ya go.
I put it in a drawer and forgot about it until a few weeks ago. I'm going to the moon with this, ladies and gentlemen
They can't afford to. At 4.5% average rates, their interest payments will consume something on the order of 80% of their government budget and huge portions of GDP. Their 30 year paper was trading at 4.1% last week. If the short end of the yield curve pumps even higher, they are utterly screwed. Consequences of 250% debt to gdp.
It's not that simple. Untold numbers of U.S. bonds are held by people running the "carry trade" (borrowing JPY at low interest rates in order to buy mostly U.S. treasuries and make money on the difference).
If you raise JPY rates, then these U.S. treasuries are going to get liquidated driving up U.S. rates and of course the U.S. doesn't like that.
So, I believe the US is pressuring Japan NOT to raise rates, i.e. to save the U.S.'s own currency.
This is undoubtedly why Bessent bought $5 to $10 billion JPY using Euro awhile back (as rumored, the exact amount is a secret). That way he could try and bailout Japan and by using Euro instead of USD, not affect US inflation so much. He also did it without telling anyone in Europe which quite pissed them off as well.
It's really funny seeing these shenanigans take place with all the pompousness the US shows regarding its currency and how it pretends it itself is not going broke.
More detail on the Patrick Boyle video where the actual picture of Bessent's note that included that purchase is mentioned. Also the fact that these are specifically French bonds that were dumped with no warning. This is dropping the mask of Western solidarity I think Xi is over the moon
Because that was 1985, and this is now. Entire supply chains, input costs, planning, etc. have been built around the assumption of the JPY trading in some sort of range.
Of course that will change over time, if it hasn't already. The Japanese government's messaging about this has been that they're not really worried about the currency weakening (after all they're massive net exporters! it should be a good thing), but rather the speed at which it's happening.
Because you cherry-picked 1985. It went below 160:1 in 1986 and hasn't been back since, until now. So it's the weakest it's been in literally 40 years; that's at least potentially a big deal.
Current moves have been to implode all currencies, but peg the dollar to petrol, so it floats slightly higher on the pile.
The only ways to pay back 120%+ GDP is hyper-inflation or a debt jubilee. Given the South Seas company debt interest is still being paid back, doubt it will be the latter.
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[ 4.0 ms ] story [ 10.8 ms ] threadI put it in a drawer and forgot about it until a few weeks ago. I'm going to the moon with this, ladies and gentlemen
I guess it still is - it just went from 1 USD to 1 AUD to now 1 NZD :-D
If you raise JPY rates, then these U.S. treasuries are going to get liquidated driving up U.S. rates and of course the U.S. doesn't like that.
So, I believe the US is pressuring Japan NOT to raise rates, i.e. to save the U.S.'s own currency.
This is undoubtedly why Bessent bought $5 to $10 billion JPY using Euro awhile back (as rumored, the exact amount is a secret). That way he could try and bailout Japan and by using Euro instead of USD, not affect US inflation so much. He also did it without telling anyone in Europe which quite pissed them off as well.
It's really funny seeing these shenanigans take place with all the pompousness the US shows regarding its currency and how it pretends it itself is not going broke.
With almost all of its industries no longer in a leading position, with its car industry being demolished by EVs, 250:1 is what it is heading.
Of course that will change over time, if it hasn't already. The Japanese government's messaging about this has been that they're not really worried about the currency weakening (after all they're massive net exporters! it should be a good thing), but rather the speed at which it's happening.
Always seems to go wrong. Like spraying water on a forest fire with a straw.
The only ways to pay back 120%+ GDP is hyper-inflation or a debt jubilee. Given the South Seas company debt interest is still being paid back, doubt it will be the latter.