We will accept any words you think have a chance of being the best thing we will read about the premise of 'GPU World'. Because the premise is so specific, we wanted to leave participants a lot of freedom in how they used it.
(Also a little bemused at the discussion of the grand prize amount here. $40k is a very generous prize for a short piece of writing. For perspective, the Commonwealth Short Story Prize, which you may have heard of recently, offers its global winner 1/6th as much; the last contest I ran offered 1/4th as much, and the contest before that was... 1/40th as much? And I didn't hear anyone complaining about them. For further perspective, $40k is about the median American per capita annual income: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Per_capita_personal_income_in_... )
Right now the people who have access to Sol/Fable/frontier are a tiny, self-selected sample, both on the determination (even if just by paying $100/mo) and tech literacy, just like the early Internet, and therefore completely not representative.
We had these big dreams of peer-to-peer boundless communication as the Internet reaches every corner of the world. We got billions of Facebook and Instagram users because this is what most people want. Even Twitter is too niche and sophisticated for most. Imagine that.
The eternal AI sloptomber is coming. We are now on AI timeline as we were when debating future of the web on Usenet on the Internet timeline.
That is not to say that it will be all bad. I am genuinely keeping my fingers crossed for a common cold cure/vaccine.
Yeah, yeah, I know, to you vibecoders and openclawers are the bottom of the barrel. But they are the elite of who's to come.
>"Someday, such as in 2040, there may be available, for every human being, the performance equivalent of 'a B300 GPU for contemporary LLMs'.
What would this world be like?
What will our world be like when (not if) every human being has access to the equivalent of a Fable or Sol LLM 24/7/365? Will this lead to a panopticon of indefatigable AI surveillance? Will education be revolutionized by infinitely patient tutors? Will social media cease to exist as we know it? Will healthcare be revolutionized by world class AI doctors and personalized medicines? What will happen in the oft-ignored developing world?"
What great questions!
These would be great questions to pose to a Creative Writing class, any Creative Writing class!
Or heck, any Creative Writing class, Philosophy class, or Futurist!
You know, there should be a web page, a time-capsule web page if you will, where people of 2026 ask questions about what specific future years will look like in terms of health, climate, politics, religion, currency, geopolitics, social media, news, education, etc., etc., and then all of these questions could be aggregated statistically into the most asked ones, and that could be preserved going forward in time...
That's from a looking-forward-into-the-future perspective...
We could, from a looking-backwards-into-the-past perspective, try to discover what people, in say 1900, thought about the future; what their specific concerns were, what their specific questions were... perhaps some historian or historians or books or (copied to) web pages out there contains some of this information somewhere...
Which might be interesting to look at for comparison purposes...
You know, "for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only...", to quote Charles Dickens' 1859 book, "A Tale Of Two Cities"... :-)
Back in 2023 I sent myself an email with some predictions about the future and my thoughts on LLMs at the time, good and bad. I can’t remember when it’s supposed to arrive though…
Hopefully in this world, someone figures out how to deliver the performance equivalent of a B300 GPU for about 1/100th the power of a current B300 (which can be up to 1400 watts), or the world will bake.
current global average electricity production = approximately 3.6 terawatts
But then again these systems do not use 1400 watts all the time. We would probably have much more then 11.2 terawatts demand if all humans turn on all their electrical consumers at the same time.
Specialized chips like what cereberus is building combined with small models can give great result in the long run, but at the pace AI is growing it's not very practical yet.
Compared to 20-30kw spend on cruising the highway in a car (considerably higher for older ICEs) 1.4kw does not really seem to dent the energy consumption.
Especially if cognitive technologies mean that we need to travel less (eg communiting to work, or ineffecient supply chains).
2-3 hours at 20kW daily (assuming commute, etc) vs 20ish hours always on tasks really is close to equivalent
which is to say that the last thing our planet needs is another universalized technology that outputs as much total emissions as cars
in an ideal world, we'd keep LLMs/CNNs/etc specialized and academic until we really get a handle and are hitting diminishing returns on optimizing fundamental microprocessor tech like GAA. but the pursuit of market dominance and mass adoption is our current operating philosophy, and so we have things like this top graph: https://hai.stanford.edu/news/inside-the-ai-index-12-takeawa...
I think personalized suriveillance and manipulation (thought control, manipulating people through filtering of content they receive) on a level any dictator would drool over can be gotten for a fraction of 1 GPU per person.
Most of the energy consumption comes from moving data between memory and compute units rather than the math itself.
While HBM stacked on a silicon interposer was a signification efficiency improvement over traditional DDR, there's still room for improvement. The high energy costs will drive this further, e.g. near-memory/in-memory compute (PIM) or tighter 3D packaging and possibly optical interconnects.
(And of course training/model optimisations)
Right, if everyone in the world has a GPU we would have solved so many problems with power generation and... I'm not going to do the math but I think we'd be mining asteroids too? I'd probably use it as a bookend at the point.
I just finished reading Service Model by Adrian Tchaikovsky [1], a really timely novel that deals with lots of open ended questions of AI, robots, humanity, control, and so on. Really recommend it if you're into these kinds of things.
> Premise
Imagine that AI frontier progress stops as of 1 September 2026: AI becomes faster and cheaper, but it never becomes superhuman or improves considerably across the board.
I absolutely love this premise. I wrote a comment a few days ago about this very thing. I've had this "revelation" in early 2024, when using a small local model, that even if models never improve, I'd still have a few years of discovering all the things I could do with the models.
Really cool, hopefully we get some interesting and not overwhelmingly pessimistic stories out of this project. There's enough cynicism and negativity in the world. We could use some funny takes on everyone using openclaw2040 ran by fable. Shenanigans galore.
The more I use Fable the more impressed I am with it. I am still learning how to use it, same with gpt-5.6-sol. I don't think the model has changed much, but both models have gotten smarter in leaps and bounds as I've improved the documentation, context, how I provide work to them and how I specify success.
(And generally that consists of keeping only the very most relevant details and deleting a lot of the boilerplate I used to need for other models, it's a great trend.)
I am excited for the next tier of models, but I could readily work for the rest of my career feeling like I have superpowers with only what we have right now. I'm also very excited for the idea of these same strength models getting faster, and much, much cheaper.
I find it interesting that we are still talking in terms of modifying our behaviour to accommodate the tools. Surely the point of LLMs is not to "learn how to use it" but as an extension of our own unique capabilities - the most personalised tool in all of history.
I finished reading it recently, too. I thought it was quirky, delightful, and obviously exaggerated for entertainment and contemplation purposes. I've recommended it to a bunch of people, too!
It triggered one of my favorite weird activities: after reading a book that I fully enjoyed and feel was completely "worth it," I give myself a few days to float on that happy feeling. Then, I go look at specifically only one and two star reviews. And laugh. Man, some people hated that book!
Note that otherwise, as a rule, I basically never read reviews of entertainment, restaurants, hotels and similar before nor after. I'm just not interested.
>but it never becomes superhuman or improves considerably across the board.
With were AI agent clusters already are I'd say they have reached superhuman capabilities in a number of metrics. I for example am not going to go toe to toe writing exploits against the best models we have out. Faster and cheaper just means they can pear down and explore the problem space even faster than I already can.
Ironically, that is one of the things that have changed. In 1980 working from home was borderline unthinkable. Now, while it is far from universal its also not that unusual.
Society wise yes, but if you had an office job, you essentially take inbound mail and transfrom it into outbound mail. That has been possible to do from home in the 80s. If you work in a large corporation, you also don't talk to people directly, you call them. That's possible from home too.
Until the industrial revolution, every work was home work.
Everyone working in an office (maintenance excepcted) could work from home right now. The fact so few of us do, and that so many companies (read "people who are invested in urban office space") force employees to work from offices.
I honestly still see some benefit from working together, quick meetings over lunch and the psychological effects of leaving work. Needing to physically leave your workplace helps your brain leave work at work.
The downsides of it are well known, however. Higher costs of living near work, less mobility (both home and work need to be mostly in the same place, so you end up missing opportunities), unmet demands for housing (resources invested in office space), more time spent commuting in public transport (or worse, cars), and so on. Even for employers, the cost is limiting where you can hire talent. I live in Ireland and, while a lot of talent is concentrated in the Dublin area, there are other talent pools that are simply out of reach to us.
I too love to meet my colleagues in person, but the cost for society, and for myself, are non-trivial. I would love if we had a weekly office day, so we could have meetings, lunch, discuss work, projects, intersections on what we are doing, and so on.
Life in Asia and Africa has changed pretty dramatically, and improvements are accelerating. Yeah, we're not in utopia yet, but more people than ever live comfortable, safe lives. "Business at the speed of light" has become a reality, and we're still getting to grips with it. We dealt with a global pandemic with an efficiency never seen before - had it happened in the previous century, we would have probably seen "black death" levels of casualties.
Issues like inequality and conflict are mostly rooted in the human psyche more than the human condition, so they will continue to be there probably forever; but we're getting better.
Well, population explosions tend to happen in hellholes and sensible declines happen in civilized society. The term happiness of course isn't something you can measure that easily, though.
So much have changed. The way we shop, travel, navigate a town, the way we socialize, receive information. My formative memory is during the transition from computers are a furniture piece and internet a thing you do to being on your pocket with constant high speed connection and the difference is incredible.
I was also part of the people that thought everyone having access would turn out a lot better than it ended up being. I think the issue is not that it did not change much, is that good changes got offset a bit by a lot of very bad outcomes.
No comment on the distribution and concentration part, that one I agree.
In the limited pockets of society you experience directly.
How much has changed in the relationship between the West and Asia, the economic inequalities globally, or even in the West, etc...
if you look at macro, everything moves according to laws that have little to do with the even distribution of technology and a lot to do with the decision makers that get to pick how that distribution takes place.
That's not what I'm saying, and I don't know where you inferred that from.
I'm saying that tech has changed the world in the way we experience it, for sure, but it has been driven by political choices, more that drive political choices itself if we look at the bigger picture.
Isn't that exactly one of the interesting tensions here?
You original point is that at a macro level it's driven by the elite decision makers not technology. I think the point you are perhaps missing is how much of that is constrained by the distribution of power and how technology can change that distribution.
I think there is no doubt that access to the internet and information ( and propaganda ) , and self-organised mass communication has had an impact - that's why countries switch off the internet when trying to suppress an uprising for example.
A lot of previously stable countries are starting to feel 'ungovernable' in the sense that's it's increasingly difficult for the established order to create and maintain it's preferred narrative.
If you look back in history at the last big information revolution - the printing press - the consensus is that it played a significant role in things like the French or American revolution or the breaking the power of centralised religion.
And sure those in power are scrambling to put the genie back in the bottle, and they may succeed - but that just illustrates the potential transformative power.
The relationship between the West and Asia in its current form (Asia as a manufacturing powerhouse, the West as hub of global finance, outsourcing all over the world, JIT manufacturing) all this stuff is totally dependent on instant communication over the internet.
We would not be able to coordinate the world's production activity from Manhattan without the internet. Capital would be far less accumulated and allocated in a way less granular way. Demand signal would be completely different, based way more on brick and mortar. Feedback loops between capital and demand would be constrained to different geographic areas which would make basically all markets way more segregated...
So it changes labor, production, demand, markets, culture, media... I think that's basically everything!
I'll tell you. I would have a different job, my city would have a different population, I would spend my time after work differently, I would shop differently, I would watch different movies and listen to different music.
> Turned out: not much have changed
Changed a lot, I am getting to know what a random person living some where in the world think about what change it has brought
Waxing poetic, it's been a while since the wheel was invented and we've gone through a lot since then, yet the rich are still rich and the poor are still poor and the loved are still loved and the loveless still loveless.
Would one GPU data center/person make a difference? Probably not, but it could be quite fun to have your own personal genie. And then we get used to it.
Still, I'm not sure if most people care to make the distinction between technology (a rocket promising to reach for the stars) and the human condition (has it ever changed since the dawn of time?).
I think the idea of "even distribution" is dangerous, as it often assumes equal preferences and views of what needs to be distributed.
Do we want equal outcomes or equal opportunities. What constitute and outcome and an opportunity.
Even in something as harmless as giving people equal access to e.g. internet, we're assuming that the cost of access to internet < than the cost of their alternative preferences.
If people want to live nude in the jungle, that should be their prerogative.
Let's just turn it around for a second, where a nude-jungle-living population was majority, and had the ability to force their will on you. Would you like for them to make nude-jungle-living a universal and equally distributed circumstance, in alignment with their preferences? (I wouldn't).
I want access to more and "better" compute. I'm willing to sacrifice my time to get access. With my current compute spend, I'd estimate that roughly 1 hour of work per week, goes to purchase compute and related equipment.
It's only fair that those who have worked hard to manifest this compute in the world, also want something in return. I too want something in return for the hours I spend producing things that people want.
The idea that people have a "claim" on things I produce, purely as an artifact of existing, is completely bonkers.
If you want to give something to others, use your free will to do so. I do so, on occation. And I don't expect others to. But I do expect others to leave me and the things I produce alone, unless we've agreed to transact.
Sorry, but these socialist ideas of "those who make things are evil and only does so to get power over others" are so fucking tiring. "The world would be a better place if we just distributed x equal to my preference (y)". Fuck off. I don't want your Lada. But by all means go out and exchange the things YOU produce, for free internet for others. Sounds terrific. Don't force me to do the same. I have other but equal ideas of how to make the world a better place.
> What would happen when every one would have access to Internet? How different will the world be when everyone carries a computer in their pocket? Can communicate with anyone regardless of location and language, with no intermediary? Those were questions we used to ask ourselves not so long ago. Turned out: not much have changed.
We are far short of everyone having access to the internet.
We can't even predict/understand our current world, yet alone the world in 20 years.
Even if we get to one GPU pe person, it's not like that's the end state, the world constantly changes and will constantly evolve. If it stagnates too long, people get bored and a revolution would happen.
So, whatever that world would be, it would be temporary too
I think the point of stories like these is to accept that the world is too complex to fit into a story but we can try to fit a part of it anyway and we might learn something from it or at least get an interesting experience.
Boredom may cause teenagers to commit acts of vandalism; it’s not a typical cause for revolution. (That would be things like famine, gross inequality, severe injustices and so on.)
> LLM use is permitted, but discouraged; we remind participants that LLM use tends to reduce originality and writing quality, and the flaws are especially obvious when LLM outputs are read as a group---unskillful use of LLMs will reduce the odds of being the best entry. We request disclosure of AI use.
Lot of submissions won't disclose it. Wouldn't it better to run your own checker instead of asking to disclose (to be fair to everyone).. I suppose there ought to be some checker which is SOTA.
If you anyway intend to use the checker then kindly do no ask to disclose it, coz what's the point then.
A Mac Studio m4 max in low power mode consumes ~50-100 watt on 100% gpu consumption. On GPU idle it is ~10 watt. If we imagine improved models (e.g. qwen 3.8 is a 5b moe which is way faster to process) and improved chip performance on 2nm and half a day of usage (the AI will sleep when we sleep then):
((75 watt / 2 [faster models]) / 2 [faster chips]) / 2 [half a day of usage]) => ~ 10 watt.
AI for everyone does not imply pC mAsTeRraCe for everyone.
I have been in tech for 20 years. i researched, covered, produced analysis, written extensively about innumerable trends. I have always done it with a grain of sane skepticism, but I have been wowed so many times. And yet, for the first time, I see something like this and I can’t utter anything but “oh my effing God”. It’s disturbing to me—to have this incredible technology available, the most incredible I’ve seen ever, and yet feel so empty about it. I just feel a fundamental repulsion. A generation ago the nerds were quirky cool outcasts with enough of a humanistic background, an understanding of the value of culture, or the humility of those who don’t know enough. This enabled them understand that tech is only part of a broader set of values, even though many of them were certainly technological maximalists. With AI another form of tech power has prevailed. It’s tech totalitarism, tech for tech’s sake. The drivers are of course the usual suspects: money and power. Yet there’s more. The resistance, even the most basic skeptical resistance, from the broader public isn’t there. With gen AI the nerd found the gold in the mine: the sudden realization that millions of people just couldn’t wait for the moment a machine could alleviate the curse of thinking. So here they go, merrily and joyously deferring their mind process to a mimicry engine, running back into the warm womb of Plato’s cave.
That said, interesting competition, big prizes, but the premises are pretty opinionated and quite prescriptive.
> What will our world be like when (not if) every human being has access to the equivalent of a Fable or Sol LLM 24/7/365
One single sentence illustrating why tech bro has become a derogatory term. Do they realize that today many humans don't even have access to clean water?
Asimov's laws of robotics and Herbert's Dune foreshadowed the troubles we are facing now and have been largely ignored. It appears fiction does nothing to guide us when it comes to technology; no matter how prescient or widely read. Consider this when writing your idealist drivel.
> LLM use is permitted, but discouraged; we remind participants that LLM use tends to reduce originality and writing quality, and the flaws are especially obvious when LLM outputs are read as a group---unskillful use of LLMs will reduce the odds of being the best entry. We request disclosure of AI use.
We already know the answer, it's identical to the answer for: what if everybody had UBI.
Most of the population wouldn't do anything with it. They got 5g mainframes in the palm of their hands and they watch sports, play Candy Crush or doom scroll TikTok.
We know what they do with their spare time and we've known for generations. See: decades past + TV viewing time. Swap TV viewing time for TikTok et al.
They get GPT 5.6 Sol or Gemini and they use it to cheat on their homework. They don't create amazing art. They don't build anything useful. They don't start businesses. They don't drastically increase their productivity or life prospects through self-education. They also largely didn't use the Internet for any of that, even though they could have.
They're not going to create anything.
Mimics never do, that's not their role in humanity. 99% of the population are mimics and can never do more than mimic established pathways, it's outside their biology. They'll use AI to make their lives a tiny bit better, based on what everybody else is doing, and that'll be it. Given useful machinery like advanced home robots + AI, they'll use that to reduce their home labor and increase doom scrolling time (or the equivalent).
If you want to improve the prospects for humanity, you want to shrink the population faster, before it chokes on its own obsolescence and drowns in purposelessness. Pay people to stop having children. Focus on raising the bar for education, per capita output, per capita standards of living, quality of life.
We have a quite shitty but effective version of basic income (not universal) today in many countries. People don't generally starve or freeze to death anymore. They get shelter and healthcare too. We might not give people free money directly in all cases. But we are already paying for everyone to be taken care off. Going from there to a UBI isn't as much of a leap as many people seem to think it is.
The working population only actually works part of their life. The rest of their life they are provided for as well. In fact, in many modern countries the amount of people that are allowed to vote and yet is not considered part of the working population is approaching 50% or actually more than 50%. There are lot of retired people, students, stay at home parents, chronically ill/disabled, etc. that are not considered to be pariahs in most societies and yet they don't really perform any payed labor. They are not counted as unemployed. And plenty of them actually do very useful things of course.
And if you start looking at what it is people actually do for money these days, things get weirder. Sure, they get paid. But there are some seriously weird things people do for a living. A lot of which you might label as redundant, frivolous, or so abstract it's questionable what the actual benefit is. Arguably, a lot of the work that gets done unpaid by the non working class is a lot more useful and essential than quite a disturbingly large amount of stuff done by the working classes these days. A lot of those working the hardest doing the most useful things get paid the least.
You could label a lot of "work" as busy work for people to give them an income. It's not all that consequential if they stop doing it for a while. The lockdowns a few years ago were instructive in how minimal the disruption was when masses of people stopped showing up for that work. Many people doing actual real work of course never stopped working. But many of us were just confined to our home office where we got to sit on zoom calls, bake bread, or do whatever it was we did to keep ourselves busy. While still getting paid.
I think that was a little glimpse of the future. Minus the restrictions on movement and freedom. We'll still do stuff for each other. And some of us will still work quite hard. It was never about the money.
> Someday, such as in 2040, there may be available, for every human being, the performance equivalent of 'a B300 GPU for contemporary LLMs'. What would this world be like?
If we talk about just LLMs, given how things have been going since ChatGPT, my bet it would not change that much. LLMs are not foundational technology such as Internet or Steam engine or Rail roads were. There are very few products that can build upon them because of reliability issues which are completely unresolvable for LLMs, chatbots is a decent product that came out of it, coding harnesses is another one, this is not even close to the impact Internet or Steam engine had. LLMs gave us nice productivity tools for highly motivated expert knowledge workers, that is all. LLMs are getting better and will get better, but it is impossible to describe the universe and compress it into few terabytes and that is what they are doing atm effectively, so all serious LLMs's issues will still be there in 2040: the lack on continues learning, hallucinations, terrible sample ratio, agent's failures on long horizon tasks, instruction following failures.
I disagree with this take. While LLMs themselves are currently unreliable, the work done in the math community on hooking up creative LLMs to reliable verifiers like Lean show that it’s possible to construct systems where the unreliability is suppressed. For now, that still requires experts to set up and monitor, but I do believe that in a couple of decades we’ll make progress on how to do more mundane tasks in a reliable way without expert supervision, where an LLM still sits as the translation layer between humans and machines. And that universal human-to-machine translator, I would certainly consider a foundational technology.
I share this sentiment, while deploring the current AI board room sentiment. I know some people that design (safe) buildings. They use software all the time for their load-bearing work (lol). Think about the creativity that could be unleashed if that (like LEAN for math) becomes a commodity.
The same thing for my job: creating insurance premiums is somewhat hard but not stellar. A combination of skills, data, tools and people. I can imagine a future where you can post a 'have good weather on holiday or money back' bond on a platform. (I can think of more serious applications...) The sheer diversity and amount of liquidity AI's can create is enormous. (Switching to a very general outlook here.) And with liquidity hopefully comes more specificity in the ROI on saving our planet. (Or the disproving of the necessity thereof, if that is your outlook.)
Construction isn't using LLMs any time soon like that. We don't even send our files in structured data because everyone's playing nose goes for liability and sending pdfs
I know! And financials and actuaries aren't either. Excel, Python, R and don't know what we can use ducktape and spit for to keep together. But as the LEAN-example quite nicely shows: with the right scaffolding I am convinced the GPU World /could/ look rosy.
An economic problem would be - how could the builder of a scaffold capture _some_ value without right away be copied. The fact that LLMs threw away every protection of intellectual property at their inception makes it a lot harder to invest in (with the goal of capturing some) value. I am at least /somewhat/ influenced by RMS on the 'seductive mirage' of IP but I have my doubts on how copyleft could bring more than breadcrumbs to those who build scaffolds.
The LEAN example is the ideal case. It's like a baby POC to me.
I can only assume the only realistic way to get all the federated data will be a ton of massivr vertical consolidation of industry by hubris laden tech execs crossing industry domains.
In spirit of this conversation - Terence Tao is awesome right? He was already one of the best mathematicians on the planet when he happened to start dabbling in computer assisted proofs (obviously as a giant standing on the shoulders of giants) at exactly the right time for the computer revolution to find a perfect use case (as you point out).
> I disagree with this take. While LLMs themselves are currently unreliable, the work done in the math community on hooking up creative LLMs to reliable verifiers like Lean show that it’s possible to construct systems where the unreliability is suppressed. For now, that still requires experts to set up and monitor, but I do believe that in a couple of decades we’ll make progress on how to do more mundane tasks in a reliable way without expert supervision, where an LLM still sits as the translation layer between humans and machines. And that universal human-to-machine translator, I would certainly consider a foundational technology.
Yes, for a verifiable domains you can set up a harness and brute-force a search space if you have enough money for compute. Why do you think they keep coming up with those examples of impressive achievements like solving math puzzles? Why not focus on something with economic value to it? My answer is they can't, those are hard problems, those require building an actual product, those require reliability.
> EDIT: If you asked people on the street in 1990, they’d probably not consider the Internet to be in the same category as the Steam engine either. I mean, you already had phone and fax, so it wasn’t that ground breaking. And I’ve even read articles from the mid-90s declaring the Internet a temporary fad.
We are not people people on the street we are people who are directly involved in application of the technology, we posses a higher level of insight.
Not yet, as far as I know, but perhaps someone will find a way to do that in the future. We're talking about the next two decades here, a lot can happen in that time.
DNA itself can be thought of as a language which describes proteins, and I personally don't know enough about the limits of LLMs as a technology to claim that it can never be adapted to, say, do reverse translation from desired protein shapes into DNA sequences.
This is why it's better to call the underlying technology transformers rather than 'language model'. It can make a model from anything you can digitize and is informational (random noise would not be informational for example). It's the relations between the bits of data that matters.
Most notably Paul Krugman Nobel winning economist in 98:
"By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s."
Also goes to show how hard it is to predict anything that is a massive change - these levels of changes are so infrequent that we can't rely on priors to predict the future.
pretty sure Krugman himself said his prediction was intentionally pessimistic to counter the hyper-optimism of his peers. and in fairness, he wrote that at the height of the dot-com bubble.
actually, thinking about it more, I wonder if we'll see something similar with LLMs where, the bubble will eventually pop, but the technology won't disappear, and we'll see it quietly improve and integrate further into our lives over time. probably not that wild of a prediction to make, but I do wonder still
More or less the same as social media but for agents, perhaps?
When I want to book an airline ticket in the future, I expect my LLM agent to contact the airline LLM agent, and the two to discuss options and negotiate a deal on my behalf.
Negotiate? For an airline ticket? When's the last time a human did that and why would an agent?
There's a price, and if you don't like it you go to a competitor you don't call customer service and negotiate? Who in their right mind would let an LLM set prices?
I don't think you've said anything different than the person you're responding to. The difference primarily seems to be whether you think AI is transformative vs simply being another tool (which is really just a matter of perspective).
If you're not an expert software engineer, it's transformative. If you are, it's just another tool.
I’m an expert software engineer. I would categorize something that multiplies my productivity by > 2x is transformative. AI has certainly done that and more for me
> hooking up creative LLMs to reliable verifiers like Lean show that it’s possible to construct systems where the unreliability is suppressed.
You can also have LLMs create these things called "programs" that are written in "code" that result in deterministic outputs when given inputs.
I say this with a bit of snark to highlight the point that both humans and LLMs can write code that is cheaper to run and easy to verify. I'm not saying Lean being used like this is a bad idea, just that it's just one end of the spectrum.
The thing that would change it a lot is that people would start trading their GPUs, because some people would get vastly more economic use out of them.
> it is impossible to describe the universe and compress it into few terabytes
Why? I'm not an expert, but from my understanding, there say species that function well in their ecological niches with significantly smaller cognitive capacities. And we already have autonomous cars and drones navigate and function reasonably well. So I don't see any reason to believe it's impossible. And even if terabytes aren't sufficient, there's no real barrier to increasing capacity.
> there say species that function well in their ecological niches with significantly smaller cognitive capacities
Yes, but LLMs are not animals, animals learn from experience and LLMs don't.
Btw I meant bigger and bigger amount of data of extracted reasoning chains when you go deeper and generate more and more of them in your attempt to describe the universe, the amount of permutations explodes. And it seems LLMs can't workaround that because they don't build world model inside so they can't deduct it from pre-built world/object model, they must memorize it and look it up later.
>but LLMs are not animals, animals learn from experience and LLMs don't.
I mean they kind of do by distilling said experience and putting it in the next model.
Current LLMs can't do it because building said world model is super expensive, anything that lowers that requirement brings us closer to continuous learning.
Also the models we train these days are typically generalized human text models. Animal models are a bit different because they won't be "word" models and they aren't going to be generalized text models like us humans use. In fact there is a story just today on HN about a user creating some rather simple transformer models to solve a number of the Arc-AGI problems not using (human) words at all. The reason you don't see more of this is most people aren't dumping compute into these kinds of issues, but instead going for the AGI prize.
> LLMs gave us nice productivity tools for highly motivated expert knowledge workers, that is all.
I feel like this is incredibly simplistic, and if you changed "LLM" to "computer" or "internet" and went back decades, it's highly likely you'd read the exact same takes in the newspaper back then about those things.
It's also at the same time downplaying just how valuable "nice productivity tools for highly motivated expert knowledge workers" could be, just like computers did for us "highly motivated expert knowledge workers" in the first place. Or computers isn't a "foundational technology" either?
> I feel like this is incredibly simplistic, and if you changed "LLM" to "computer" or "internet" and went back decades, it's highly likely you'd read the exact same takes in the newspaper back then about those things.
We are not people who write newspapers we are people who are directly involved in application of the technology, we posses a higher level of insight.
> I feel like this is incredibly simplistic, and if you changed "LLM" to "computer" or "internet" and went back decades, it's highly likely you'd read the exact same takes in the newspaper back then about those things.
Computers, the Internet, Steam engine, Rail roads are much more reliable. If you were a problem solver and entrepreneur you could go and apply those on small scale, get profits, reinvest, set up a flywheel, build a fortune on the top of those, there were a lot of low hanging fruit due to the fact that the foundation was laid out, a break-even period of James Watt steam engine was like 2-3 years I believe until everyone saw it and margins flattened. Can you do that with LLMs? It doesn't look that way.
> We are not people who write newspapers we are people who are directly involved in application of the technology, we posses a higher level of insight.
Cool, you're still a person who share their thoughts, just like the people who had similar reactions to when computers and the internet first came around. So many people were railing against the internet with "You'll never make payments over the internet", "it's too slow" and whatever. To the surprise of none of us nerds, the internet eventually ate the whole world and now large swaths of the population can't imagine life without it, for better or worse.
> Computers, the Internet, Steam engine, Rail roads are much more reliable.
You're comparing the reliability of huge ecosystems after they've gone mainstream, after decades, with something that is a couple of years old, hardly a fair comparison. Instead, compare where LLMs are today with the first years of computers, the internet and all that, and maybe you'll gain a new perspective on where LLMs are? None of those things were reliable initially and in many cases, involved actual human deaths before safety actually caught up.
Even when I got started with using the internet, which isn't that long time ago but around the modem-era, things were not so reliable or simple as they are today.
>Computers, the Internet, Steam engine, Rail roads are much more reliable.
Because mostly they are doing a limit number of tasks in a non-generic manner.
Railroads had all kinds of problems at first, from iron rails bending and skewering the riders to engines exploding like high pressure bombs cutting down swaths of people like grain. People still used them with those risks because taking a wagon was worse.
The internet itself is a pretty simple concept. It's "just" packet routing. Now, to make that reliable at scale we've added an enormous amount of complexity to it. If you talk an old TCP stack and dump it on todays internet it you'd find yourself hacked pretty quickly. The internet is a generic packet router, but not a generic anything router.
Computers is where the reliability starts to fall apart. Once you go from specialized purpose to general purpose the size of the problem space explodes. You wouldn't get companies called things like Micro$lop (and these things were from before the AI days).
Then when you get to AI/LLMs and especially when you push into AGI you're creating a do anything now machine. And when you can do anything it takes a lot of training to eliminate the choices that end badly. You are the endpoint of 500 million years of training, for example.
>Can you do that with LLMs? It doesn't look that way.
Can anyone do it now? You're talking about low hanging fruit 200 years ago, but how much of that is left? How much harder are we going to have to fight for the next apple up?
This take is unfathomable to me. How are LLMs not massively revolutionary, despite them not being infallible? This comment reminds me of there being competitions for finding useful purposes for electricity when it was first discovered. Imagine talking about the usefulness of LLMs while thinking that LLMs in 2026 just compress a few TB of data into a set of weights and that's all they work with lol.
Whichever side of the divide you're on, I think it's really weird that on a site like HN (where people have at least a passing familiarity with technology) there are such polarised takes on whether it's the next industrial revolution, or a technological parlour trick.
I'm giving away which side I'm on now, but most of the TAM have experienced the product at this point, and trillions of dollars have been invested. I would wager most other revolutionary technologies found their game changing, broad reaching applications by this point.
Did you experience the popularization of the WWW? There were massive disagreements even among smart tech-savvy people. We even had a stock market boom and just cycle associated with it.
Funnily, none of that mattered. What mattered is that enough ordinary people on the street found it useful, both for personal and business reasons. Ask yourself: are regular people using this tech, either as producers or consumers? And remember that this is the least powerful that it will ever be.
> Funnily, none of that mattered. What mattered is that enough ordinary people on the street found it useful, both for personal and business reasons.
Broad economic impact due to Internet boom in the US comes from 2 main categories:
1) New huge internet enabled tech companies appeared(Amazon, Google, Meta etc.), all created their own products, all were build on reliable foundational technology. LLMs is not reliable foundational technology.
2) Existing legacy companies could utilize internet to connect their teams/departments/offices though a bunch of new software which were build on reliable foundational technology. LLMs is not reliable foundational technology.
> And remember that this is the least powerful that it will ever be.
This mantra is being repeated but "serious LLMs's issues" I described are still there and will be there because they are part of how LLMs are built and work.
It's very hard to disagree with the point that it will get more powerful, perhaps in uenxpected ways.
I don't know that the average regular person is using this tech as a producer, and while it's hard not to consume it - I don't know if anybody consuming it really wants to. I'm in a bubble of people where we give it a lot more mindshare, but e.g my electrician is aware of the tech, knows what it does, and doesn't really care. I think you're right that if it could manage his books, help him rewire a switchboard, order inventory for him etc that would be very different.
From what i hear in a small subset of local small businesses is that they are using it for backoffice stuff, like taxes, finding legal codes, organization, planning etc.
> I don't know if anybody consuming it really wants to.
You don't know of people who ask LLMs questions? Or just chat with it for fun and to learn?
Maybe your electrician isn't interested. A pharmacist and a nurse I talk to are. Virtually everybody I've talked to uses it to some degree or another. I think it'll soon replace Alexa/Siri for most people, as well as google search.
I think the first parent post all this conversation originated from, pointed that LLMs are not groundbreaking inventions.
If people use it to replace voice assistants or search engines, you can see how this new invention is not really adding anything you already hadn't.
AIs in general are very useful, but apart from the campaign they did to change everything's name into AI (also well known algorithms and "old" machine learning), if you look at all the possible applications, LLMs are possibly the least useful of them.
Especially if you take into account how much money they spent, and how much effort they put to shove it in your throat.
If a technology is convenient for people, you shouldn't need to insist to make people use it. If it is convenient, people will use it in a natural way.
> If a technology is convenient for people, you shouldn't need to insist to make people use it.
This is like the railroads, and the tracks have been laid. Because of the enormous cost, it can't be left to "hope they'll find it useful," and has to be pushed like crazy, or we're going to be left with a train system with no goods or passengers, and no path into the future.
Personally, having AI as an intelligence I can call like it's a library from apps I build... and to help build those apps... I feel that the future is as bright as the sun. I've always believed in software, but I feel like a chef that's just discovered salt and butter.
I don't know what it means for the world stage, but I believe that software is the highest art, and it's just had an incalculably massive buff. As an artist, I am stoked. The possibilities for creation of good things are limitless, and if you can't see that, I can't help you.
However, I wouldn't necessarily invest in AI companies. I don't know how this all fits into the rest of the world, except that I believe in my own ability to make products, same as I ever did, but now with AI.
> This is like the railroads, and the tracks have been laid.
Except that for railroads I don't need people to convince me about how/when/why it can be useful.
Railroads came out to solve an issue we had (and then it evolved).
LLMs are not giving us any new solution, just different speed (better) and quality (worse) to solve things we co&ld already solve.
It's basically the same concept as fast fashion.
Worse quality, more speed, possibly more economic.
You can change your wardrobe possibly every year, but you will never wear good quality clothes.
Now you can write code at impressive speed, but it is worse in quality, and you need to review it more often than "normal" code.
AI code should always be fully reviewed and put into the correct context to make it useful, otherwise long term problems will void short term benefits
Nobody convinced me AI was useful. At this point, nobody could convince me it wasn't - it's like going from whittling stuff out of wood to having a kitted-out fully-manned machine shop.
It's clear from your words you lack experience and skill in this area - you've only got opinions.
Yeah, because I can see some of my own thoughts and experience from a long time ago in your words, and my experience tells me loud and clear that they're outdated and wrong.
I guess we might actually have similar feelings, except, you say "only speed", and "only economics". Only time and only money. As if those aren't two of the most valuable currencies on earth.
If people use [the Internet] to replace [Sears catalogs] or [paper mail], you can see how this new invention is not really adding anything you already hadn't.
It would have been a good counter-example, if only internet wasn't:
- adding encryption
- removing processing time
- removing geography
- removing logistic issues
... and much more at a convenient price.
They basically invented teleportation for sear catalogs and paper mail, can you see how this is different?
Also, Internet was built to solve a problem we had, and it solved it beautifully and at reasonable prices.
I for sure can understand it introduced different issues, buy this is another topic.
You can ask LLMs questions about an immense variety of subjects, and they can give you customized explanations to those questions. It is as if an acquaintance of yours had digested Wikipedia and tens of thousands of books and had infinite patience to help you understand whatever you are curious about. And while the answers are not going to be picture perfect every time, just like Wikipedia or a well-educated acquaintance, they will be generally very useful.
I understand exactly what the Internet of the 90s did and did not do, because I was there to witness it myself. I had these same types of conversations with naysayers back then. Guess who was right?
Maybe you have all the means to avoid sycophancy bias and other flaws LLMs have by design, this doesn't mean that everyone can use it the same way.
The fact the you were right in a previous topic, doesn't grant you objective truth.
You have your strong opinions on AI, and that's ok.
Fortunately not everyone has to share the same idea.
If you think LLMs can do better than you, feel free to use them in production and bring them to work with you, it's your choice.
Do not force others do the same, tho.
I’m remodeling a room in my house and I’ve used Gemini help me troubleshoot problems and it works pretty well. It’s come up with a lot of ideas that I wouldn’t have thought of. Of course it’s contradicted itself a few times too so you have to think about what you’re doing as well.
>Did you experience the popularization of the WWW? There were massive disagreements even among smart tech-savvy people. We even had a stock market boom and just cycle associated with it.
In the early phase of the Internet envelope, we all wanted to build the real Internet and destroy the AOL's and Compuserves' .. but now the Internet has turned into a mass of AOL's and Compuserves.
I think the same thing is happening with the silo'ization of LLM's. People don't want to have to use the "AOL of LLM's" for things - they want to build out their own infrastructure and have a pool of local LLM's (where once it was the company's own modem pool, etc.)
It is, oddly enough, parallel with the original arguments in the 70's and 80's regarding supercomputers versus personal computers, or the cloud versus locally managed resources, etc. We are still fighting this battle, just with higher bandwidth.
Do we operate a terminal with a fixed window into a bigger computer, or do we operate a heavier local computer with a proper interface?
Most people I know, blue and white collar up to and including surgeons and IT folks, use it as better search.
My wife is a GP, and all she would ever need is a reliable speech to voice recognition of medical jargon, in french. Not 98%, not almost there, just there.
Most people don't live in IT echo chambers like HN. For them, chatgpts are just another online gimmick that saves a bit of time vs googling things, or puts together some paperwork quicker, and thats it.
For me, I can see potential beyond but are largely unmoved by it. The price to pay, in fucking up our environment, losing skills and/or losing skills to build skills, making large swaths of population unemployed with no replacement in sight, seems much more like devolution and net loss. Extremely few winners and big bunch of losers. Very happy to be wrong here of course, but only time will tell and neither you nor me know for sure.
Because it’s so powerful and versatile. The other day my wife took a picture of our living room and chathgpt picked out the perfect rug. That’s both a better search and avoided, say, an interior decorator. In that scenario it’s kinda both.
But only a small part of AI applications are that search-like. I mean we could even argue if this is still only search, but that's semantics and boring. But even if we would, there are a lot more applications than pure search. So the GP's original claim that it's just an improved form of something that doesn't put people out of a job, and also puts large amounts of people out of a job, doesn't make sense. Framing tax advise as "yeah it's just a better way to search tax codes" is in the same boat. It's such a massive improvement of both searching and synthesizing that it's a bit weird to call it that. Like saying a 2026 car is just an improvement of a Model T.
I think we agree. I think we’ve barely touched the surface on its applications. It’s digitized reasoning. That’s hard to wrap one’s head around. My hope is that the vertical applications that gain traction aren’t from a handful of companies.
The TAM of electricity is 99.999% of humanity, yet there was 82 years between Alessandro Volta's Voltaic Pile experiments and the first electrical grid in the world, Pearl Street Station, New York City.
A farmer may have seen an LLM answering their questions about how to make a less dry chicken sandwich, but he hasn't seen a specifically designed and tested harness that autonomously manages a crop harvester. There is not a lot of work in this space right now, because programming and math are infinitely more verifiable, and the capabilities of never models would probably invalidate any usecases, but if the model progress slows down, all attention will go towards making them work for any aspect of production.
Fair points (and I appreciate very much that they read like a human wrote them). As a counter point - and I know it's a weak one - a few years ago people were telling me that crypto was going to replace currency, and soon every person on the planet would be using it for every transaction. Many people believe that will still happen, but I don't think many serious people do.
I want to believe there is big bucks in this technology - my employer is tied up in it and so is my compensation. I just find it personally very unremarkable in a way that I never did with phones or the internet. When I got my first phone, or first started using Dogpile for research - I saw immediate value, and would have paid big bucks to keep it in my life. AI has had a few years and a huge amount of investment (time and money) and if it disappeared overnight I wouldn't pay $10 to get it back. I keep trying it, there's just something missing in my brain where it should be clicking for me :(
> a few years ago people were telling me that crypto was going to replace currency, and soon every person on the planet would be using it for every transaction. Many people believe that will still happen, but I don't think many serious people do.
As you say, that is a weak counter point. I do get what you're saying, but crypto flaws were built in from the start:
- Deflationary currency isn't going to be spent, it is going to be hoarded, if it would have any value at all. The design was self defeating from the very start.
- Technical limits of PoW. Obvious right from the start, which led to the block wars. PoS "solves" that but with other costs. And it still doesn't solve the first point.
Despite these, crypto did get adopted, just not in any way that crypto maximalists said it would. It got hoarded, as expected.
But the real test is: If crypto disappeared tomorrow, would the world notice or really care? I would argue, apart from people losing money, most of the world wouldn't even notice it was gone.
Nitpick or two. Holborn in London was a little earlier. Also neither was really a grid. That took another ~45 years. Maybe that's better for your argument - but I'm not quite sure that the analogy fully holds - as it's a different class of infrastructure problem.
>but he hasn't seen a specifically designed and tested harness that autonomously manages a crop harvester.
Eh, I'd say there is a lot more stuff like this being developed these days. Autonomous seeders are becoming more common and (semi-)autonomous tractors are in use.
I'd say a very large part of the in field work can be done now, and is using enhancements like vision models to identify potential problems that crop up to notify humans. It's when the machines have to interact in tight busy spaces or with non-farm traffic that control is handed over to a human.
We absolutely are - but we’re still at the “weirdo factory owner installs experimental electric motor” stage. You look at what’s going on in robotics, look at GROOT/Isaac, and the circle closes quite neatly. World’s going to change in ways we can barely even imagine, no more than someone in 1720 could imagine the buffet car on an intercity express train.
That polarizing take is magnified by our failure to teach how to manage discussions that contain controversy and disagreement. Then there is the fact that most people's idea of debate is some game of dominance and not to find solutions.
We're still in early stages, but in just 2 years AI has presented higher education with the single most disruptive change in decades. Now a computer can do your entire coursework for you, is available to converse on a broad range of topics, and can accomplish unaided huge open-ended problems.
> most other revolutionary technologies found their game changing, broad reaching applications by this point.
I think your timeline expectations are miscalibrated. The steam engine goes back centuries. Even in the mid 1700s to 1800s, advances in engine design were decades apart, and the logistics of building and deploying steam engines mandated an uptake in years, even in perfectly-fitted applications.
Like these applications where there were existing manual-labor solutions that not only fought the technology but were still competitive, AI and LLMs weren't born in a vacuum. In order to revolutionize, it must displace, and people are rightly finding ways to do their jobs in more productive ways that moderate adoption speed.
Can you name some other technologies that have exploded from 0 to billions of users in just 3 years?
I'm with you on this. I remember when the Internet became a thing, how revolutionary it was to all areas of my life.
This is comparable.
While I dislike the bonkers valuations, and "were building Agi so it tells us how to be profitable" is onion worthy statement LLMs are an absolutely revolutionary technology.
Even with all the hallucinations.
Imagine telling someone 15 years ago Internet/Google is useless because people sometimes do not tell the truth online... It's like that.
I also hate the fact AI is being used as justification to grab all compute in the world and lock it up in one country's datacenters.
I hope this endeavour fails, but sadly being realistic I have to admit I think the so called "AI bubble" will not pop. Instead the companies will be bailed out with printed money.
I recently looked up there are approximately $20Trillion in circulation. Even if they print extra $2T it will dilute existing money supply by 10%. So everyone that uses USD as a currency will pay for the datacenter build out wether we want it or not.
All the compute will be slurped from the market for this and companies like nvidia that get used to 50bln deals will never go back to making consumer stuff.
I never thought I'll live to see the PC revolution reverse, but that is what seems to be happening.
I strongly agree. I cannot understand how anyone could seriously use this technology and come away thinking it's mostly useless. I suspect there is a LOT of bias baked into their opinion.
We've moved from LLMs being able to work on a task for about 2 minutes to about 2 hours in the last 18 months, and that's mostly limited by the context window size filling up. In 14 years time I don't really see a reason why that wouldn't have extended a time frame that's effectively continuous forever, or at least a ceiling that's indistinguishable from that.
The question really becomes "why would we want that?". The main reason you'd want an AI that can focus on a task forever is to completely remove the human from the loop. That's something we should be cautious about.
I do not think agents need to work continuously. They "just"
need to work on a project longer than an employee is able to
work on it for them to be commercially useful. Although this
does not consider that agents might take a shorter or longer
amount of time for the same task. Therefore, we should begin
to compare these in tasks completed during that time instead.
Not sure about that. The nature of work changes if you have some[one|thing] that can work on it continuously forever. The goal of using AI shouldn't be to do the things a person does; it should be to do the things a person would be able to do if they had (practically) unlimited time.
This is one of the inflection points around working with AI. When your thinking shifts from "AI does what the person used to do" to "AI does something different that leads to the same outcome as before, but with all that cool stuff I'd love to have the time for", then the equation changes. For example, I will never write another app that doesn't have 100% test coverage again. I stress- and soak-test everything these days. That's changing how I write code - I need to write things in ways that have deterministic harnesses for things mutable state outside of my immediate control (like random numbers or datetimes or state loaded from a save) so that I can task AI with building a fuzzer that does tens of thousands of random tests on every push to see if anything broke. I couldn't do that in the past because it was always effort that a client wouldn't get enough value from to pay me to do it. I can do those things now. It's ace.
(Everywhere I put 'I' you can replace with 'AI of the Week')
My codex tasks regularly cross 8 hours, and I'm only using Sol High. It's not unusual for tasks to span much longer. It just requires instructions to continue working until the spec is complete.
Anthropic and OpenAI are currently obsessed with getting humans out of the training and improvement loops. It's going to happen very soon and when it does I think we see staggering improvements in a very short space of time. Basically, the Singularity.
> It just requires instructions to continue working until the spec is complete
Try putting an LLM agent in a deterministic workflow without humans in the loop. My experience with this is not encouraging. Getting it to work requires sprinkling some context magic and hoping and praying the LLM does the right thing. More astrology or religion and less science. Great for use cases with humans-in-the-loop, but less than impressive when you need determinism and reliable operation.
They don't have to be though. You can give them a temperature of zero so they pick the highest-probability token every time to give you a deterministic output. I imagine this doesn't work on frontier models because there's a lot going on, but you can definitely do it with a small local model.
Are you breaking up your tasks and spawning new sessions for each, or are you just yoloing and letting it auto compact when it blows the context many times on such a long running task?
Computers were made and automated lots of work, even though it was still us operating those computers and making and running those automations. But eventually computers took over and running so much of the world.
Now LLMs are automating the computers themselves. This is a whole new layer that we never had before, not in this amount or with this much availability. It is not "not foundational".
Absolutely untrue. LLM will be the automation force of everything. It will connect and orchestrate our entire society. It will be a much bigger impact that any other revolution in the past. Our lives will be unrecognizable in 10 years from now.
In general we don't, as the "chatbots" already have way more capability than "just" being able to work with text, which "just" means encoding and processing real world information and lot's of it.
For example I just fixed the gearing of my bicycle by dropping some pictures into claude and it gave me a step by step guide to fix it.
"LLMs gave us nice productivity tools for highly motivated expert knowledge workers, that is all"
And I cannot understand how that can be "all" as it means giving this power to every human, not just the few in the position to hire expert knowledge workers. Steam engines gave us the capability to let machines do the hard labour. Now with better engines and tools, AI will give robots the capability to do allmost anything humans can do. If that is not revolutionary then I don't know what is.
The main reason we humans got to the top of the food chain was because we are expert knowledge workers, able to transform the world around us to our needs.
"but it is impossible to describe the universe and compress it into few terabytes and that is what they are doing atm effectively, so all serious LLMs's issues will still be there in 2040: the lack on continues learning, hallucinations, terrible sample ratio, agent's failures on long horizon tasks, instruction following failures."
So again, just limiting this debate to a simple fixed model - then no, not too useful - but a model that can take notes and at some point reliable clear up it's context - that is a whole different story.
And it has been repeated often enough, but AI does not need to be perfect - it just has to be as or more reliable than us humans. Because yes - AI does make misstakes - but so do humans.
Wow, you really do not understand them. The 'problem' with LLM AI is the weak educations of the people that cannot grasp their subtle multidimensional nature, and how that creates a requirement on the users' behalf to understand the language they use to communicate in a similar manner as numbers are to algebra. LLM AIs are literally literature calculus but that truthful phrase flies right over the majority's heads.
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[ 0.22 ms ] story [ 26.0 ms ] threadWe will accept any words you think have a chance of being the best thing we will read about the premise of 'GPU World'. Because the premise is so specific, we wanted to leave participants a lot of freedom in how they used it.
(Also a little bemused at the discussion of the grand prize amount here. $40k is a very generous prize for a short piece of writing. For perspective, the Commonwealth Short Story Prize, which you may have heard of recently, offers its global winner 1/6th as much; the last contest I ran offered 1/4th as much, and the contest before that was... 1/40th as much? And I didn't hear anyone complaining about them. For further perspective, $40k is about the median American per capita annual income: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Per_capita_personal_income_in_... )
How are you going to evaluate 10^6 submissions? Let me guess: You'll preselect with AI for the expedient narrative:
"AI will be democratized and a small model will run on any GPU and there will be no oligarchies and China will pay for all of it!"
Right now the people who have access to Sol/Fable/frontier are a tiny, self-selected sample, both on the determination (even if just by paying $100/mo) and tech literacy, just like the early Internet, and therefore completely not representative.
We had these big dreams of peer-to-peer boundless communication as the Internet reaches every corner of the world. We got billions of Facebook and Instagram users because this is what most people want. Even Twitter is too niche and sophisticated for most. Imagine that.
The eternal AI sloptomber is coming. We are now on AI timeline as we were when debating future of the web on Usenet on the Internet timeline.
That is not to say that it will be all bad. I am genuinely keeping my fingers crossed for a common cold cure/vaccine.
Yeah, yeah, I know, to you vibecoders and openclawers are the bottom of the barrel. But they are the elite of who's to come.
Heh. In the future I imagine, this would be embarrassingly redundant. "Thou shalt not make a machine in the likeness of a human mind."
[1] https://dune.fandom.com/wiki/Butlerian_Jihad
What would this world be like?
What will our world be like when (not if) every human being has access to the equivalent of a Fable or Sol LLM 24/7/365? Will this lead to a panopticon of indefatigable AI surveillance? Will education be revolutionized by infinitely patient tutors? Will social media cease to exist as we know it? Will healthcare be revolutionized by world class AI doctors and personalized medicines? What will happen in the oft-ignored developing world?"
What great questions!
These would be great questions to pose to a Creative Writing class, any Creative Writing class!
Or heck, any Creative Writing class, Philosophy class, or Futurist!
You know, there should be a web page, a time-capsule web page if you will, where people of 2026 ask questions about what specific future years will look like in terms of health, climate, politics, religion, currency, geopolitics, social media, news, education, etc., etc., and then all of these questions could be aggregated statistically into the most asked ones, and that could be preserved going forward in time...
That's from a looking-forward-into-the-future perspective...
We could, from a looking-backwards-into-the-past perspective, try to discover what people, in say 1900, thought about the future; what their specific concerns were, what their specific questions were... perhaps some historian or historians or books or (copied to) web pages out there contains some of this information somewhere...
Which might be interesting to look at for comparison purposes...
You know, "for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only...", to quote Charles Dickens' 1859 book, "A Tale Of Two Cities"... :-)
current global average electricity production = approximately 3.6 terawatts
But then again these systems do not use 1400 watts all the time. We would probably have much more then 11.2 terawatts demand if all humans turn on all their electrical consumers at the same time.
Especially if cognitive technologies mean that we need to travel less (eg communiting to work, or ineffecient supply chains).
which is to say that the last thing our planet needs is another universalized technology that outputs as much total emissions as cars
in an ideal world, we'd keep LLMs/CNNs/etc specialized and academic until we really get a handle and are hitting diminishing returns on optimizing fundamental microprocessor tech like GAA. but the pursuit of market dominance and mass adoption is our current operating philosophy, and so we have things like this top graph: https://hai.stanford.edu/news/inside-the-ai-index-12-takeawa...
> Premise Imagine that AI frontier progress stops as of 1 September 2026: AI becomes faster and cheaper, but it never becomes superhuman or improves considerably across the board.
I absolutely love this premise. I wrote a comment a few days ago about this very thing. I've had this "revelation" in early 2024, when using a small local model, that even if models never improve, I'd still have a few years of discovering all the things I could do with the models.
Really cool, hopefully we get some interesting and not overwhelmingly pessimistic stories out of this project. There's enough cynicism and negativity in the world. We could use some funny takes on everyone using openclaw2040 ran by fable. Shenanigans galore.
[1] - https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/195790861-service-mod...
I thought this was one of the less plausible parts of the book, Sigh! :)
(And generally that consists of keeping only the very most relevant details and deleting a lot of the boilerplate I used to need for other models, it's a great trend.)
I am excited for the next tier of models, but I could readily work for the rest of my career feeling like I have superpowers with only what we have right now. I'm also very excited for the idea of these same strength models getting faster, and much, much cheaper.
I find it interesting that we are still talking in terms of modifying our behaviour to accommodate the tools. Surely the point of LLMs is not to "learn how to use it" but as an extension of our own unique capabilities - the most personalised tool in all of history.
It triggered one of my favorite weird activities: after reading a book that I fully enjoyed and feel was completely "worth it," I give myself a few days to float on that happy feeling. Then, I go look at specifically only one and two star reviews. And laugh. Man, some people hated that book!
Note that otherwise, as a rule, I basically never read reviews of entertainment, restaurants, hotels and similar before nor after. I'm just not interested.
With were AI agent clusters already are I'd say they have reached superhuman capabilities in a number of metrics. I for example am not going to go toe to toe writing exploits against the best models we have out. Faster and cheaper just means they can pear down and explore the problem space even faster than I already can.
I think the world has changed a lot since the 1980s.
Our cars are cleaner, our phones are much better, our TVs much lighter and bigger.
And trees and mountains and animals still exist...
Rate of change, it appears, depends entirely on someone's perspective.
Ironically, that is one of the things that have changed. In 1980 working from home was borderline unthinkable. Now, while it is far from universal its also not that unusual.
Until the industrial revolution, every work was home work.
I too love to meet my colleagues in person, but the cost for society, and for myself, are non-trivial. I would love if we had a weekly office day, so we could have meetings, lunch, discuss work, projects, intersections on what we are doing, and so on.
Issues like inequality and conflict are mostly rooted in the human psyche more than the human condition, so they will continue to be there probably forever; but we're getting better.
The fertility rate where I live is 1.21.
1 in 5 adult women where I live are on prescription anti-depressant medication.
For comparison - the fertility rate under Stalin - the uber evil bad guy as we all know was between 3 and 4.5.
So much have changed. The way we shop, travel, navigate a town, the way we socialize, receive information. My formative memory is during the transition from computers are a furniture piece and internet a thing you do to being on your pocket with constant high speed connection and the difference is incredible.
I was also part of the people that thought everyone having access would turn out a lot better than it ended up being. I think the issue is not that it did not change much, is that good changes got offset a bit by a lot of very bad outcomes.
No comment on the distribution and concentration part, that one I agree.
You original point is that at a macro level it's driven by the elite decision makers not technology. I think the point you are perhaps missing is how much of that is constrained by the distribution of power and how technology can change that distribution.
I think there is no doubt that access to the internet and information ( and propaganda ) , and self-organised mass communication has had an impact - that's why countries switch off the internet when trying to suppress an uprising for example.
A lot of previously stable countries are starting to feel 'ungovernable' in the sense that's it's increasingly difficult for the established order to create and maintain it's preferred narrative.
If you look back in history at the last big information revolution - the printing press - the consensus is that it played a significant role in things like the French or American revolution or the breaking the power of centralised religion.
And sure those in power are scrambling to put the genie back in the bottle, and they may succeed - but that just illustrates the potential transformative power.
Maybe I am misremembering it.
That example alone feels enough.
The relationship between the West and Asia in its current form (Asia as a manufacturing powerhouse, the West as hub of global finance, outsourcing all over the world, JIT manufacturing) all this stuff is totally dependent on instant communication over the internet.
We would not be able to coordinate the world's production activity from Manhattan without the internet. Capital would be far less accumulated and allocated in a way less granular way. Demand signal would be completely different, based way more on brick and mortar. Feedback loops between capital and demand would be constrained to different geographic areas which would make basically all markets way more segregated...
So it changes labor, production, demand, markets, culture, media... I think that's basically everything!
I'll tell you. I would have a different job, my city would have a different population, I would spend my time after work differently, I would shop differently, I would watch different movies and listen to different music.
Waxing poetic, it's been a while since the wheel was invented and we've gone through a lot since then, yet the rich are still rich and the poor are still poor and the loved are still loved and the loveless still loveless.
Would one GPU data center/person make a difference? Probably not, but it could be quite fun to have your own personal genie. And then we get used to it.
Still, I'm not sure if most people care to make the distinction between technology (a rocket promising to reach for the stars) and the human condition (has it ever changed since the dawn of time?).
Do we want equal outcomes or equal opportunities. What constitute and outcome and an opportunity.
Even in something as harmless as giving people equal access to e.g. internet, we're assuming that the cost of access to internet < than the cost of their alternative preferences.
If people want to live nude in the jungle, that should be their prerogative. Let's just turn it around for a second, where a nude-jungle-living population was majority, and had the ability to force their will on you. Would you like for them to make nude-jungle-living a universal and equally distributed circumstance, in alignment with their preferences? (I wouldn't). I want access to more and "better" compute. I'm willing to sacrifice my time to get access. With my current compute spend, I'd estimate that roughly 1 hour of work per week, goes to purchase compute and related equipment.
It's only fair that those who have worked hard to manifest this compute in the world, also want something in return. I too want something in return for the hours I spend producing things that people want.
The idea that people have a "claim" on things I produce, purely as an artifact of existing, is completely bonkers.
If you want to give something to others, use your free will to do so. I do so, on occation. And I don't expect others to. But I do expect others to leave me and the things I produce alone, unless we've agreed to transact.
Sorry, but these socialist ideas of "those who make things are evil and only does so to get power over others" are so fucking tiring. "The world would be a better place if we just distributed x equal to my preference (y)". Fuck off. I don't want your Lada. But by all means go out and exchange the things YOU produce, for free internet for others. Sounds terrific. Don't force me to do the same. I have other but equal ideas of how to make the world a better place.
We are far short of everyone having access to the internet.
Even if we get to one GPU pe person, it's not like that's the end state, the world constantly changes and will constantly evolve. If it stagnates too long, people get bored and a revolution would happen.
So, whatever that world would be, it would be temporary too
Lot of submissions won't disclose it. Wouldn't it better to run your own checker instead of asking to disclose (to be fair to everyone).. I suppose there ought to be some checker which is SOTA.
If you anyway intend to use the checker then kindly do no ask to disclose it, coz what's the point then.
Do you know of a "checker" that can reliably detect AI-assisted writing with 100% accuracy? One does not exist.
> If you anyway intend to use the checker then kindly do no ask to disclose it, coz what's the point then.
You appear to think in absolute terms. I am guessing you are very young.
The continuous energy footprint per person globally averages to 356 watt currently.
((75 watt / 2 [faster models]) / 2 [faster chips]) / 2 [half a day of usage]) => ~ 10 watt.
AI for everyone does not imply pC mAsTeRraCe for everyone.
That said, interesting competition, big prizes, but the premises are pretty opinionated and quite prescriptive.
One single sentence illustrating why tech bro has become a derogatory term. Do they realize that today many humans don't even have access to clean water?
Did you even read the prompt
Most of the population wouldn't do anything with it. They got 5g mainframes in the palm of their hands and they watch sports, play Candy Crush or doom scroll TikTok.
We know what they do with their spare time and we've known for generations. See: decades past + TV viewing time. Swap TV viewing time for TikTok et al.
They get GPT 5.6 Sol or Gemini and they use it to cheat on their homework. They don't create amazing art. They don't build anything useful. They don't start businesses. They don't drastically increase their productivity or life prospects through self-education. They also largely didn't use the Internet for any of that, even though they could have.
They're not going to create anything.
Mimics never do, that's not their role in humanity. 99% of the population are mimics and can never do more than mimic established pathways, it's outside their biology. They'll use AI to make their lives a tiny bit better, based on what everybody else is doing, and that'll be it. Given useful machinery like advanced home robots + AI, they'll use that to reduce their home labor and increase doom scrolling time (or the equivalent).
If you want to improve the prospects for humanity, you want to shrink the population faster, before it chokes on its own obsolescence and drowns in purposelessness. Pay people to stop having children. Focus on raising the bar for education, per capita output, per capita standards of living, quality of life.
What a fantastically bleak world view.
The working population only actually works part of their life. The rest of their life they are provided for as well. In fact, in many modern countries the amount of people that are allowed to vote and yet is not considered part of the working population is approaching 50% or actually more than 50%. There are lot of retired people, students, stay at home parents, chronically ill/disabled, etc. that are not considered to be pariahs in most societies and yet they don't really perform any payed labor. They are not counted as unemployed. And plenty of them actually do very useful things of course.
And if you start looking at what it is people actually do for money these days, things get weirder. Sure, they get paid. But there are some seriously weird things people do for a living. A lot of which you might label as redundant, frivolous, or so abstract it's questionable what the actual benefit is. Arguably, a lot of the work that gets done unpaid by the non working class is a lot more useful and essential than quite a disturbingly large amount of stuff done by the working classes these days. A lot of those working the hardest doing the most useful things get paid the least.
You could label a lot of "work" as busy work for people to give them an income. It's not all that consequential if they stop doing it for a while. The lockdowns a few years ago were instructive in how minimal the disruption was when masses of people stopped showing up for that work. Many people doing actual real work of course never stopped working. But many of us were just confined to our home office where we got to sit on zoom calls, bake bread, or do whatever it was we did to keep ourselves busy. While still getting paid.
I think that was a little glimpse of the future. Minus the restrictions on movement and freedom. We'll still do stuff for each other. And some of us will still work quite hard. It was never about the money.
If we talk about just LLMs, given how things have been going since ChatGPT, my bet it would not change that much. LLMs are not foundational technology such as Internet or Steam engine or Rail roads were. There are very few products that can build upon them because of reliability issues which are completely unresolvable for LLMs, chatbots is a decent product that came out of it, coding harnesses is another one, this is not even close to the impact Internet or Steam engine had. LLMs gave us nice productivity tools for highly motivated expert knowledge workers, that is all. LLMs are getting better and will get better, but it is impossible to describe the universe and compress it into few terabytes and that is what they are doing atm effectively, so all serious LLMs's issues will still be there in 2040: the lack on continues learning, hallucinations, terrible sample ratio, agent's failures on long horizon tasks, instruction following failures.
even if you're right, all fields are progressing at the same time, including biology, and the synergies are going to be significant
The same thing for my job: creating insurance premiums is somewhat hard but not stellar. A combination of skills, data, tools and people. I can imagine a future where you can post a 'have good weather on holiday or money back' bond on a platform. (I can think of more serious applications...) The sheer diversity and amount of liquidity AI's can create is enormous. (Switching to a very general outlook here.) And with liquidity hopefully comes more specificity in the ROI on saving our planet. (Or the disproving of the necessity thereof, if that is your outlook.)
An economic problem would be - how could the builder of a scaffold capture _some_ value without right away be copied. The fact that LLMs threw away every protection of intellectual property at their inception makes it a lot harder to invest in (with the goal of capturing some) value. I am at least /somewhat/ influenced by RMS on the 'seductive mirage' of IP but I have my doubts on how copyleft could bring more than breadcrumbs to those who build scaffolds.
I can only assume the only realistic way to get all the federated data will be a ton of massivr vertical consolidation of industry by hubris laden tech execs crossing industry domains.
Yes, for a verifiable domains you can set up a harness and brute-force a search space if you have enough money for compute. Why do you think they keep coming up with those examples of impressive achievements like solving math puzzles? Why not focus on something with economic value to it? My answer is they can't, those are hard problems, those require building an actual product, those require reliability.
> EDIT: If you asked people on the street in 1990, they’d probably not consider the Internet to be in the same category as the Steam engine either. I mean, you already had phone and fax, so it wasn’t that ground breaking. And I’ve even read articles from the mid-90s declaring the Internet a temporary fad.
We are not people people on the street we are people who are directly involved in application of the technology, we posses a higher level of insight.
DNA itself can be thought of as a language which describes proteins, and I personally don't know enough about the limits of LLMs as a technology to claim that it can never be adapted to, say, do reverse translation from desired protein shapes into DNA sequences.
Predicting the future is hard.
Also goes to show how hard it is to predict anything that is a massive change - these levels of changes are so infrequent that we can't rely on priors to predict the future.
actually, thinking about it more, I wonder if we'll see something similar with LLMs where, the bubble will eventually pop, but the technology won't disappear, and we'll see it quietly improve and integrate further into our lives over time. probably not that wild of a prediction to make, but I do wonder still
When I want to book an airline ticket in the future, I expect my LLM agent to contact the airline LLM agent, and the two to discuss options and negotiate a deal on my behalf.
If you're not an expert software engineer, it's transformative. If you are, it's just another tool.
You can also have LLMs create these things called "programs" that are written in "code" that result in deterministic outputs when given inputs.
I say this with a bit of snark to highlight the point that both humans and LLMs can write code that is cheaper to run and easy to verify. I'm not saying Lean being used like this is a bad idea, just that it's just one end of the spectrum.
Why? I'm not an expert, but from my understanding, there say species that function well in their ecological niches with significantly smaller cognitive capacities. And we already have autonomous cars and drones navigate and function reasonably well. So I don't see any reason to believe it's impossible. And even if terabytes aren't sufficient, there's no real barrier to increasing capacity.
Yes, but LLMs are not animals, animals learn from experience and LLMs don't.
Btw I meant bigger and bigger amount of data of extracted reasoning chains when you go deeper and generate more and more of them in your attempt to describe the universe, the amount of permutations explodes. And it seems LLMs can't workaround that because they don't build world model inside so they can't deduct it from pre-built world/object model, they must memorize it and look it up later.
I mean they kind of do by distilling said experience and putting it in the next model.
Current LLMs can't do it because building said world model is super expensive, anything that lowers that requirement brings us closer to continuous learning.
Also the models we train these days are typically generalized human text models. Animal models are a bit different because they won't be "word" models and they aren't going to be generalized text models like us humans use. In fact there is a story just today on HN about a user creating some rather simple transformer models to solve a number of the Arc-AGI problems not using (human) words at all. The reason you don't see more of this is most people aren't dumping compute into these kinds of issues, but instead going for the AGI prize.
I feel like this is incredibly simplistic, and if you changed "LLM" to "computer" or "internet" and went back decades, it's highly likely you'd read the exact same takes in the newspaper back then about those things.
It's also at the same time downplaying just how valuable "nice productivity tools for highly motivated expert knowledge workers" could be, just like computers did for us "highly motivated expert knowledge workers" in the first place. Or computers isn't a "foundational technology" either?
We are not people who write newspapers we are people who are directly involved in application of the technology, we posses a higher level of insight.
> I feel like this is incredibly simplistic, and if you changed "LLM" to "computer" or "internet" and went back decades, it's highly likely you'd read the exact same takes in the newspaper back then about those things.
Computers, the Internet, Steam engine, Rail roads are much more reliable. If you were a problem solver and entrepreneur you could go and apply those on small scale, get profits, reinvest, set up a flywheel, build a fortune on the top of those, there were a lot of low hanging fruit due to the fact that the foundation was laid out, a break-even period of James Watt steam engine was like 2-3 years I believe until everyone saw it and margins flattened. Can you do that with LLMs? It doesn't look that way.
Cool, you're still a person who share their thoughts, just like the people who had similar reactions to when computers and the internet first came around. So many people were railing against the internet with "You'll never make payments over the internet", "it's too slow" and whatever. To the surprise of none of us nerds, the internet eventually ate the whole world and now large swaths of the population can't imagine life without it, for better or worse.
> Computers, the Internet, Steam engine, Rail roads are much more reliable.
You're comparing the reliability of huge ecosystems after they've gone mainstream, after decades, with something that is a couple of years old, hardly a fair comparison. Instead, compare where LLMs are today with the first years of computers, the internet and all that, and maybe you'll gain a new perspective on where LLMs are? None of those things were reliable initially and in many cases, involved actual human deaths before safety actually caught up.
Even when I got started with using the internet, which isn't that long time ago but around the modem-era, things were not so reliable or simple as they are today.
Because mostly they are doing a limit number of tasks in a non-generic manner.
Railroads had all kinds of problems at first, from iron rails bending and skewering the riders to engines exploding like high pressure bombs cutting down swaths of people like grain. People still used them with those risks because taking a wagon was worse.
The internet itself is a pretty simple concept. It's "just" packet routing. Now, to make that reliable at scale we've added an enormous amount of complexity to it. If you talk an old TCP stack and dump it on todays internet it you'd find yourself hacked pretty quickly. The internet is a generic packet router, but not a generic anything router.
Computers is where the reliability starts to fall apart. Once you go from specialized purpose to general purpose the size of the problem space explodes. You wouldn't get companies called things like Micro$lop (and these things were from before the AI days).
Then when you get to AI/LLMs and especially when you push into AGI you're creating a do anything now machine. And when you can do anything it takes a lot of training to eliminate the choices that end badly. You are the endpoint of 500 million years of training, for example.
>Can you do that with LLMs? It doesn't look that way.
Can anyone do it now? You're talking about low hanging fruit 200 years ago, but how much of that is left? How much harder are we going to have to fight for the next apple up?
I'm giving away which side I'm on now, but most of the TAM have experienced the product at this point, and trillions of dollars have been invested. I would wager most other revolutionary technologies found their game changing, broad reaching applications by this point.
Funnily, none of that mattered. What mattered is that enough ordinary people on the street found it useful, both for personal and business reasons. Ask yourself: are regular people using this tech, either as producers or consumers? And remember that this is the least powerful that it will ever be.
Broad economic impact due to Internet boom in the US comes from 2 main categories: 1) New huge internet enabled tech companies appeared(Amazon, Google, Meta etc.), all created their own products, all were build on reliable foundational technology. LLMs is not reliable foundational technology. 2) Existing legacy companies could utilize internet to connect their teams/departments/offices though a bunch of new software which were build on reliable foundational technology. LLMs is not reliable foundational technology.
> And remember that this is the least powerful that it will ever be.
This mantra is being repeated but "serious LLMs's issues" I described are still there and will be there because they are part of how LLMs are built and work.
I don't know that the average regular person is using this tech as a producer, and while it's hard not to consume it - I don't know if anybody consuming it really wants to. I'm in a bubble of people where we give it a lot more mindshare, but e.g my electrician is aware of the tech, knows what it does, and doesn't really care. I think you're right that if it could manage his books, help him rewire a switchboard, order inventory for him etc that would be very different.
You don't know of people who ask LLMs questions? Or just chat with it for fun and to learn?
Maybe your electrician isn't interested. A pharmacist and a nurse I talk to are. Virtually everybody I've talked to uses it to some degree or another. I think it'll soon replace Alexa/Siri for most people, as well as google search.
That's pretty far from nobody.
If people use it to replace voice assistants or search engines, you can see how this new invention is not really adding anything you already hadn't.
AIs in general are very useful, but apart from the campaign they did to change everything's name into AI (also well known algorithms and "old" machine learning), if you look at all the possible applications, LLMs are possibly the least useful of them.
Especially if you take into account how much money they spent, and how much effort they put to shove it in your throat.
If a technology is convenient for people, you shouldn't need to insist to make people use it. If it is convenient, people will use it in a natural way.
This is like the railroads, and the tracks have been laid. Because of the enormous cost, it can't be left to "hope they'll find it useful," and has to be pushed like crazy, or we're going to be left with a train system with no goods or passengers, and no path into the future.
Personally, having AI as an intelligence I can call like it's a library from apps I build... and to help build those apps... I feel that the future is as bright as the sun. I've always believed in software, but I feel like a chef that's just discovered salt and butter.
I don't know what it means for the world stage, but I believe that software is the highest art, and it's just had an incalculably massive buff. As an artist, I am stoked. The possibilities for creation of good things are limitless, and if you can't see that, I can't help you.
However, I wouldn't necessarily invest in AI companies. I don't know how this all fits into the rest of the world, except that I believe in my own ability to make products, same as I ever did, but now with AI.
Except that for railroads I don't need people to convince me about how/when/why it can be useful.
Railroads came out to solve an issue we had (and then it evolved). LLMs are not giving us any new solution, just different speed (better) and quality (worse) to solve things we co&ld already solve.
It's basically the same concept as fast fashion. Worse quality, more speed, possibly more economic. You can change your wardrobe possibly every year, but you will never wear good quality clothes.
Now you can write code at impressive speed, but it is worse in quality, and you need to review it more often than "normal" code.
AI code should always be fully reviewed and put into the correct context to make it useful, otherwise long term problems will void short term benefits
It's clear from your words you lack experience and skill in this area - you've only got opinions.
Only because I do not share your point of view it doesn't mean I lack experience or skills.
You are pretty fast at jumping at conclusions.
Yeah, because I can see some of my own thoughts and experience from a long time ago in your words, and my experience tells me loud and clear that they're outdated and wrong.
They basically invented teleportation for sear catalogs and paper mail, can you see how this is different? Also, Internet was built to solve a problem we had, and it solved it beautifully and at reasonable prices.
I for sure can understand it introduced different issues, buy this is another topic.
I understand exactly what the Internet of the 90s did and did not do, because I was there to witness it myself. I had these same types of conversations with naysayers back then. Guess who was right?
The fact the you were right in a previous topic, doesn't grant you objective truth. You have your strong opinions on AI, and that's ok. Fortunately not everyone has to share the same idea.
If you think LLMs can do better than you, feel free to use them in production and bring them to work with you, it's your choice. Do not force others do the same, tho.
In the early phase of the Internet envelope, we all wanted to build the real Internet and destroy the AOL's and Compuserves' .. but now the Internet has turned into a mass of AOL's and Compuserves.
I think the same thing is happening with the silo'ization of LLM's. People don't want to have to use the "AOL of LLM's" for things - they want to build out their own infrastructure and have a pool of local LLM's (where once it was the company's own modem pool, etc.)
It is, oddly enough, parallel with the original arguments in the 70's and 80's regarding supercomputers versus personal computers, or the cloud versus locally managed resources, etc. We are still fighting this battle, just with higher bandwidth.
Do we operate a terminal with a fixed window into a bigger computer, or do we operate a heavier local computer with a proper interface?
My wife is a GP, and all she would ever need is a reliable speech to voice recognition of medical jargon, in french. Not 98%, not almost there, just there.
Most people don't live in IT echo chambers like HN. For them, chatgpts are just another online gimmick that saves a bit of time vs googling things, or puts together some paperwork quicker, and thats it.
For me, I can see potential beyond but are largely unmoved by it. The price to pay, in fucking up our environment, losing skills and/or losing skills to build skills, making large swaths of population unemployed with no replacement in sight, seems much more like devolution and net loss. Extremely few winners and big bunch of losers. Very happy to be wrong here of course, but only time will tell and neither you nor me know for sure.
A farmer may have seen an LLM answering their questions about how to make a less dry chicken sandwich, but he hasn't seen a specifically designed and tested harness that autonomously manages a crop harvester. There is not a lot of work in this space right now, because programming and math are infinitely more verifiable, and the capabilities of never models would probably invalidate any usecases, but if the model progress slows down, all attention will go towards making them work for any aspect of production.
I want to believe there is big bucks in this technology - my employer is tied up in it and so is my compensation. I just find it personally very unremarkable in a way that I never did with phones or the internet. When I got my first phone, or first started using Dogpile for research - I saw immediate value, and would have paid big bucks to keep it in my life. AI has had a few years and a huge amount of investment (time and money) and if it disappeared overnight I wouldn't pay $10 to get it back. I keep trying it, there's just something missing in my brain where it should be clicking for me :(
As you say, that is a weak counter point. I do get what you're saying, but crypto flaws were built in from the start:
- Deflationary currency isn't going to be spent, it is going to be hoarded, if it would have any value at all. The design was self defeating from the very start.
- Technical limits of PoW. Obvious right from the start, which led to the block wars. PoS "solves" that but with other costs. And it still doesn't solve the first point.
Despite these, crypto did get adopted, just not in any way that crypto maximalists said it would. It got hoarded, as expected.
But the real test is: If crypto disappeared tomorrow, would the world notice or really care? I would argue, apart from people losing money, most of the world wouldn't even notice it was gone.
There is no way you could say that for LLMs.
Eh, I'd say there is a lot more stuff like this being developed these days. Autonomous seeders are becoming more common and (semi-)autonomous tractors are in use.
I'd say a very large part of the in field work can be done now, and is using enhancements like vision models to identify potential problems that crop up to notify humans. It's when the machines have to interact in tight busy spaces or with non-farm traffic that control is handed over to a human.
Electricity took about half that time, 50 years, to go from “hey look a motor” to “why don’t we put them everywhere and build power grids?”
TV took 25 years from patent to mass market adoption.
The internet, 15 years from lynx to iPhone.
Google published the transformer architecture in 2017. We are currently at “oh hey a talking computer”.
> most other revolutionary technologies found their game changing, broad reaching applications by this point.
I think your timeline expectations are miscalibrated. The steam engine goes back centuries. Even in the mid 1700s to 1800s, advances in engine design were decades apart, and the logistics of building and deploying steam engines mandated an uptake in years, even in perfectly-fitted applications.
Like these applications where there were existing manual-labor solutions that not only fought the technology but were still competitive, AI and LLMs weren't born in a vacuum. In order to revolutionize, it must displace, and people are rightly finding ways to do their jobs in more productive ways that moderate adoption speed.
Can you name some other technologies that have exploded from 0 to billions of users in just 3 years?
This is comparable.
While I dislike the bonkers valuations, and "were building Agi so it tells us how to be profitable" is onion worthy statement LLMs are an absolutely revolutionary technology.
Even with all the hallucinations.
Imagine telling someone 15 years ago Internet/Google is useless because people sometimes do not tell the truth online... It's like that.
I also hate the fact AI is being used as justification to grab all compute in the world and lock it up in one country's datacenters.
I hope this endeavour fails, but sadly being realistic I have to admit I think the so called "AI bubble" will not pop. Instead the companies will be bailed out with printed money.
I recently looked up there are approximately $20Trillion in circulation. Even if they print extra $2T it will dilute existing money supply by 10%. So everyone that uses USD as a currency will pay for the datacenter build out wether we want it or not.
All the compute will be slurped from the market for this and companies like nvidia that get used to 50bln deals will never go back to making consumer stuff.
I never thought I'll live to see the PC revolution reverse, but that is what seems to be happening.
We've moved from LLMs being able to work on a task for about 2 minutes to about 2 hours in the last 18 months, and that's mostly limited by the context window size filling up. In 14 years time I don't really see a reason why that wouldn't have extended a time frame that's effectively continuous forever, or at least a ceiling that's indistinguishable from that.
The question really becomes "why would we want that?". The main reason you'd want an AI that can focus on a task forever is to completely remove the human from the loop. That's something we should be cautious about.
This is one of the inflection points around working with AI. When your thinking shifts from "AI does what the person used to do" to "AI does something different that leads to the same outcome as before, but with all that cool stuff I'd love to have the time for", then the equation changes. For example, I will never write another app that doesn't have 100% test coverage again. I stress- and soak-test everything these days. That's changing how I write code - I need to write things in ways that have deterministic harnesses for things mutable state outside of my immediate control (like random numbers or datetimes or state loaded from a save) so that I can task AI with building a fuzzer that does tens of thousands of random tests on every push to see if anything broke. I couldn't do that in the past because it was always effort that a client wouldn't get enough value from to pay me to do it. I can do those things now. It's ace.
(Everywhere I put 'I' you can replace with 'AI of the Week')
Anthropic and OpenAI are currently obsessed with getting humans out of the training and improvement loops. It's going to happen very soon and when it does I think we see staggering improvements in a very short space of time. Basically, the Singularity.
Try putting an LLM agent in a deterministic workflow without humans in the loop. My experience with this is not encouraging. Getting it to work requires sprinkling some context magic and hoping and praying the LLM does the right thing. More astrology or religion and less science. Great for use cases with humans-in-the-loop, but less than impressive when you need determinism and reliable operation.
I would not use a sewing machine to repair my deck :) LLMs are non-deterministic, by design.
They don't have to be though. You can give them a temperature of zero so they pick the highest-probability token every time to give you a deterministic output. I imagine this doesn't work on frontier models because there's a lot going on, but you can definitely do it with a small local model.
Now LLMs are automating the computers themselves. This is a whole new layer that we never had before, not in this amount or with this much availability. It is not "not foundational".
In general we don't, as the "chatbots" already have way more capability than "just" being able to work with text, which "just" means encoding and processing real world information and lot's of it.
For example I just fixed the gearing of my bicycle by dropping some pictures into claude and it gave me a step by step guide to fix it.
"LLMs gave us nice productivity tools for highly motivated expert knowledge workers, that is all"
And I cannot understand how that can be "all" as it means giving this power to every human, not just the few in the position to hire expert knowledge workers. Steam engines gave us the capability to let machines do the hard labour. Now with better engines and tools, AI will give robots the capability to do allmost anything humans can do. If that is not revolutionary then I don't know what is.
The main reason we humans got to the top of the food chain was because we are expert knowledge workers, able to transform the world around us to our needs.
"but it is impossible to describe the universe and compress it into few terabytes and that is what they are doing atm effectively, so all serious LLMs's issues will still be there in 2040: the lack on continues learning, hallucinations, terrible sample ratio, agent's failures on long horizon tasks, instruction following failures."
So again, just limiting this debate to a simple fixed model - then no, not too useful - but a model that can take notes and at some point reliable clear up it's context - that is a whole different story.
And it has been repeated often enough, but AI does not need to be perfect - it just has to be as or more reliable than us humans. Because yes - AI does make misstakes - but so do humans.