I analyzed 26,776 tic tac toe games and found first-mover wins 39% of the time (tictoe.org)

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AFAIK if you start the game you have a chance to win if the other plays poorly, otherwise it’s a draw.

I agree. My guess is that the only games that are not draws are played by people that does not know what they are doing (children?) and that is correlated to not playing on the center.