Jev Does Not Play Dice: 83% probability, 19% accuracy on a hidden fair die roll (kantahayashiai.github.io)

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Author here. I tested Jev with a fair die 400 times without telling it the die result. The true probability of face 1 is 1/6, but Jev always chose face 1 and the probability it returned was about 83%.

Code and data are here: https://github.com/KantaHayashiAI/jev-does-not-play-dice

Happy to answer questions!

magicalhippo 1mo ago ↗

Maybe it watched Rosencrantz & Guildenstern Are Dead[1] once too many.

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_TfdNAXOwE

kantahayashi 1mo ago ↗

I found that in the play it's 92 heads in a row [1], and in my coin test Jev returned around 92%. Maybe Jev was actually trained on it.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosencrantz_and_Guildenstern_A...

verdverm 1mo ago ↗

saw this yesterday (when someone else posted your post), thanks for sharing such easy to understand cases which show Jev does not produce real world likelihoods for the choices

kantahayashi 1mo ago ↗

Thanks! I'm really glad that you read my article.

verdverm 1mo ago ↗

it's the kind of posts I come to HN for!

you did a interesting little analysis of a hot topic, wrote it up nicely, makes an interesting facet of Jev et al very clear

mstaoru 1mo ago ↗

– Will I see a crocodile today?

– Yes: 0.1% / No: 99.9%

– ...but I work at a crocodile farm!