Ask HN: Has there been a "software crisis" since the 60s?

1 points by boxesnlines ↗ HN
I happened across this quote from prof.dr.Edsger W.Dijkstra, circa 1968:

"In the mid-sixties we observed what was then known as "the software failure" or "the software crisis". Its emergence was no surprise, its occurrence had been predicted. In not much more than ten years the power of commonly available computers had increased by a factor of thousand, and our programming ability had not increased in proportion. Besides that, the logically simple, sequential machines of the fifties had been replaced by much more complicated pieces of equipment, complicated by such features as multi-level stores and asynchronously active peripherals. It was very clear that the programming task was outgrowing our programming capacities and the emergence of the software crisis was, as said, no surprise. The problem, however, was that very little could be done about it, as long as its existence was hardly admitted or even denied: it is vain to urge a world to try to improve its programming habits as long as that world pretends that its programming habits are perfectly adequate."

My first instinct is to say "you ain't seen nothing yet!", but I was surprised to see this problem being called a crisis as early as the 60s. I'm curious what perceptions other people have of this.

I never had the perception of a 'crisis' in the 90s, but the described problem has very obviously accelerated over the course of my career. I remember the days when a living could evidently be made producing those thick tomes of coding knowledge that would be completely impractical for anyone to write these days - technology moves far too fast to maintain anything like that.

It makes me wonder if I saw the end of one 'wave' at the start of my career and the start of another, or if we've been in one big accelerating crisis for more than 60 years.

2 comments

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You can at least say that there hasn't been one software crisis since the 60s. From my understanding the crisis referred to by Dijsktra was in regards to programs being so difficult write in those times that software development couldn't move forward as a field.

This was prior to "Structured programming" catching on which contains the usual constructs of today (for-loops, if statements, etc.). Structured programming somewhat ended that first crisis, once again allowing software to grow in complexity and scope.

We've had other crisis since then and do right now. But they are not the same as that specific crisis. Our programming capacities did increase with the adoption of structured programming.

If you haven't, you should watch "The root of the root of all evil" by Casey Muratori which discusses this whole train of thought in much further detail. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpj6r6CjJf8

Thank you, that really recontextualizes the quote; from my perspective it does seem like we've been rapidly sliding into chaos for >20 years, just in a different way!