- Demand from Asia for Canadian crude has increased as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has disrupted supplies from the Middle East.
- The 890,000-barrel-per-day Trans Mountain pipeline from the province of Alberta to British Columbia's west coast from where oil can be shipped to Asia hit full capacity for the first time in June.
- Canada's oil output, the world's fourth-largest, this year is set to exceed last year's record of 5.3 million barrels per day, according to Canada's energy regulator.
- "About two-thirds of ships that leave the dock go to Asia and then as we expand, I would expect that most of that (expansion) will be going to Asia," Maki told Reuters on the sidelines of the annual industry gathering APPEC in Singapore.
Almost a year, on their hoped-for timeline, just to complete the review process. No mention of how many years to build it.
Building across the mountain ranges of BC won't be easy. And being a pipeline, not a drop of oil can flow 'till it's done.
Vs. how much quicker & cheaper might it be to build a pipeline over flat ground to Hudson's Bay, then use icebreakers to keep the tankers moving in winter? Yes, it's further to Asian markets from there. But tankers sailing around Africa are still far faster and cheaper than pipeline construction through mountains.
> Vs. how much quicker & cheaper might it be to build a pipeline over flat ground to Hudson's Bay
I suspect that this would actually be much harder to build, for two reasons:
1. That part of the country is almost unimaginably remote, even by Canadian standards. There are small towns and farms scattered across most of the country, but there's almost nothing between Fort McMurray and Hudson's Bay [0] [1]. And even when you get to Hudson's Bay, the only major settlement doesn't have any roads [2]. You don't need a lot of local resources to build a pipeline, but everything gets much harder when you're hundreds of miles away from the nearest road or gas station.
2. That region is covered in the Canadian Shield [3], which is really hard to dig through. There's actually quite a bit of topsoil in most parts of the Rockies, but the Canadian Shield is pure rock. This is also why there are hardly any towns/farms/roads up there.
> Building across the mountain ranges of BC won't be easy.
I agree that it will be hard, but there are already quite a few major highways [4] and pipelines [5] running through the Rockies, so we mostly already know how to build stuff there. Whereas there are no pipelines or major highways that run between Fort McMurray and Hudson's Bay, so there are probably too many unknowns there to make it a feasible option.
Not my area of expertise - but a deserted flat stretch of bedrock sounds perfect for building a major pipeline. Nobody living there means no legal issues with locals. Big modern construction projects don't need to house workers in local apartments or feed 'em from local farms. Build it elevated (like the US's Alaska Pipeline) - so no issues with excavation. Surface bedrock makes support footings trivial (vs. Alaska has to deal with frost heaves and other soil issues). Road building is also pretty trivial.
Google Maps says it's <1000km. Easy enough for Canada to put out a RFP, noting "don't bother us if you think it'll be over C$25 billion". That's C$1M for each 40 meters of pipeline, at scale. Maybe you want 6 pairs of footings per 40m? Sounds like it could go up darn fast, with the footing crews working a week or two in front of the pipe crews. Meanwhile, a few Nordic shipyards are building the icebreakers, and another firm is digging the new harbor and channel on Hudson's Bay.
Vs. in mountains - yeah, roads are a big issue there. Because the roads themselves can take years to construct. And still, being a mere 1/2 km from the road isn't much comfort if that is up or down sharp slope - which will mean soil stability and erosion and pipeline pressure issues, every meter of the way.
I think there might be a problem with the muskeg up north - trying to get a firm spot of ground that can withstand the weight of the pipeline. At least the mountains bear weight.
The risk, of course, is that the world oil market in 3-5 years will be sane. Might not provide enough economic return to pay for the buildout. But there’s a lot of crazies out there. Anybody actually building refineries?
8 comments
[ 0.25 ms ] story [ 3.6 ms ] thread- Project would carry 1 million barrels a day, Ottawa says
- Alberta estimates pipeline could cost C$35.2 billion to C$43.7 billion
Related:
Asia is poised to take up 70% of Canadian oil exports, pipeline executive says - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/asia-is-poised-take-... - September 8th, 2026
- Demand from Asia for Canadian crude has increased as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has disrupted supplies from the Middle East.
- The 890,000-barrel-per-day Trans Mountain pipeline from the province of Alberta to British Columbia's west coast from where oil can be shipped to Asia hit full capacity for the first time in June.
- Canada's oil output, the world's fourth-largest, this year is set to exceed last year's record of 5.3 million barrels per day, according to Canada's energy regulator.
- "About two-thirds of ships that leave the dock go to Asia and then as we expand, I would expect that most of that (expansion) will be going to Asia," Maki told Reuters on the sidelines of the annual industry gathering APPEC in Singapore.
Canada, Alberta announce new west coast oil pipeline to boost exports - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/canada-alberta-annou... - July 2nd, 2026
- Pipeline would carry 1 million barrels per day from Alberta to the Pacific coast
- Alberta said construction could begin as early as September 2027
- Pipeline would give Canada more export options to Asia
- Pembina would hold a 10% construction stake with an option for another 10%
(https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45919165, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43817313 [scoreboard])
Building across the mountain ranges of BC won't be easy. And being a pipeline, not a drop of oil can flow 'till it's done.
Vs. how much quicker & cheaper might it be to build a pipeline over flat ground to Hudson's Bay, then use icebreakers to keep the tankers moving in winter? Yes, it's further to Asian markets from there. But tankers sailing around Africa are still far faster and cheaper than pipeline construction through mountains.
I suspect that this would actually be much harder to build, for two reasons:
1. That part of the country is almost unimaginably remote, even by Canadian standards. There are small towns and farms scattered across most of the country, but there's almost nothing between Fort McMurray and Hudson's Bay [0] [1]. And even when you get to Hudson's Bay, the only major settlement doesn't have any roads [2]. You don't need a lot of local resources to build a pipeline, but everything gets much harder when you're hundreds of miles away from the nearest road or gas station.
2. That region is covered in the Canadian Shield [3], which is really hard to dig through. There's actually quite a bit of topsoil in most parts of the Rockies, but the Canadian Shield is pure rock. This is also why there are hardly any towns/farms/roads up there.
> Building across the mountain ranges of BC won't be easy.
I agree that it will be hard, but there are already quite a few major highways [4] and pipelines [5] running through the Rockies, so we mostly already know how to build stuff there. Whereas there are no pipelines or major highways that run between Fort McMurray and Hudson's Bay, so there are probably too many unknowns there to make it a feasible option.
[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_of_Canada#/media/Fi...
[1]: https://assets.science.nasa.gov/content/dam/science/esd/eo/i...
[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Churchill,_Manitoba#Transporta...
[3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Shield
[4]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numbered_highways_in_Canada#/m...
[5]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pipelines_in_Canada#/media/Fil...
Google Maps says it's <1000km. Easy enough for Canada to put out a RFP, noting "don't bother us if you think it'll be over C$25 billion". That's C$1M for each 40 meters of pipeline, at scale. Maybe you want 6 pairs of footings per 40m? Sounds like it could go up darn fast, with the footing crews working a week or two in front of the pipe crews. Meanwhile, a few Nordic shipyards are building the icebreakers, and another firm is digging the new harbor and channel on Hudson's Bay.
Vs. in mountains - yeah, roads are a big issue there. Because the roads themselves can take years to construct. And still, being a mere 1/2 km from the road isn't much comfort if that is up or down sharp slope - which will mean soil stability and erosion and pipeline pressure issues, every meter of the way.
The risk, of course, is that the world oil market in 3-5 years will be sane. Might not provide enough economic return to pay for the buildout. But there’s a lot of crazies out there. Anybody actually building refineries?