14 comments

[ 2.2 ms ] story [ 37.8 ms ] thread
This article's argument in a few sentences:

* Silicon valley gave us DraftKings, Polymarket, and crypto.

* Modern business planning and venture capital firms make "bets" based on the expected value of investments, i.e. probability of success.

* LLMs compute a probability distribution on the next token.

Therefore everything that silicon valley does looks like gambling and shame on them. Sad times seeing stuff like this in the paper of record.

I mean it’s true but it’s not newsworthy. Everything has been probability based for ever, just now it is so explicit and everyone talks pseudo stats like. Example p hacking, bayesian.
And let's be clear, these claims are nonsense.

DraftKings was founded in Boston and funded by Boston and other East Coast VCs.

Polymarket was founded in New York with funding from all over the world.

Crypto wasn't created in any particular place, and crypto companies are probably the least geographically concentrated kind of tech company there is.

Venture capital and modern business planning weren't invented in Silicon Valley, either.

Statistical models have been around for hundreds of years.

This is "not even wrong" territory.

Not even close. Read the article.
Your clever strategy of not saying anything in particular, so that there's no argument to respond to, is noted a rejected.
Not trying to be clever, just a bit frustrated. How Everything Became Gambling is the main title. The cities that these firms were founded in has little to do with the point I think that the author is making regarding gambling. The impact on young men and women is my concern as a father and uncle, and I was hoping for a discussion about gambling.

Again, why is it flagged?

It was probably flagged because however much you (and for the record I, and most other people here) may think that the rise of sports betting and prediction markets are a problem, this particular article is full of nonsense and really quite bad.
This is the classic Gell-Mann Amnesia effect in action. Seems to happen pretty frequently when one read the New York Times
I was ready to say "NYT should be shut down but I must admit that the addiction-based mechanisms in tech are causing genuine problems in my life". But tbh sounds like they're just up to their usual luddite dumbassery.

Journalism, papers of record and professional opinion havers can't be replaced soon enough.

When the geniuses at NYT discover quantum mechanics also uses probability.

“Breaking: The logic of gambling undergirds our reality!!!”

Great. But they are playing Russian roulette with my kids future.
Would have liked to see a mention of poiymarket website which was made for streamers to fake winning on polymarket.

Swapped the l for I (eye) and it’s almost impossible to tell until they evaluated the winnings.

Why is this flagged? How Everything Became Gambling is the main title and very relatable to me. I find it difficult to believe that the increased focus on gambling won't corrupt sports like NFL football.

I find myself longing for the good old days where commercials during NFL games at least taught my sons the danger of erections lasting more than 4 hours.