Did we invent a new logical fallacy? If you believed that you'd bet money on it and since you aren't betting money on it then your argument is invalid!
If you mean one that can do the stunts from the demo I'm in, but not for $10k: that's more than I'm willing to bet with people I don't know. How about $100, since most of the point of a bet is formalizing a disagreement and showing that you're serious?
The "other side of that bet" would be betting that ordinary consumers will be driving it in 2028, which is what Elon claimed. A lot can happen in ten years---if Tesla ends up selling a clean-sheet sports car called something else by 2036, would that still count? Or are we talking about this specific model with these specs?
> if Tesla ends up selling a clean-sheet sports car called something else by 2036, would that still count? Or are we talking about this specific model with these specs?
Yes, and note that this has already happened: the original Roadster v2 from 2017 never shipped and was replaced with this one.
The first (much nicer looking!) Roadster Version 2 prototype was announced ~10 years ago (2017), and was never released, and has now been replaced with this, so it's a matter of faith to say it'll ever be released. It'd never sell in sufficient numbers to move the needle for Tesla, probably not even sufficient to recoup development costs.
Note that the only version of the car that could conceivably be street legal is the base one with fan only, and no cold thruster launch - NTSB is never going to approve throwing out a condensation cloud smokescreen on the highway!
"We are here at SpaceX's uh rocket test and development center in McGregor, Texas. It's 4,000 acres. Thank you for having us. Thank you for hosting us, SpaceX."
Establishes SpaceX as a giant.
"we're 20 years from when Elon first introduced the Roadster to the world. And it was really a proof of concept that proved EVs were viable product, fun to drive, could go the distance."
Establishes Elon/Tesla as an innovator. Spells out clearly the context "proof of concept." Associates "demonstrations" with "proof." Introduces the concepts of "fun", "viable", and "longevity" aka "distance."
"They were real cars. And look at how far we've come in those 20 years."
Compares introduction of a car, with current demonstration, and establishes the idea that todays "flying car" is going to be just as successful, given time.
"But you know, the last time we had Roadster and SpaceX together, we put Elons's into into orbit."
Establishes "the sky as the limit" as to what these two companies can do together. The heart of the entire sales pitch.
"And you can see there, and you know, Starman is still out there somewhere. Amazing feat."
Defines "creating more space junk for publicity stunts" as an "amazing feat."
"you're going to see the results of what happens when you have a collaboration with the world's best car company and the world's best rocket company."
Repetition of the sales pitch to cement it.
"The future is autonomous, Elon, right? Yes. But this is not an autonomous car. It is the last. Well, it it is technically autonomous for this demo to make sure we don't kill anyone. Correct. So, just in case. Uh, but uh this will actually be long-term the only uh manually driven car that Tesla makes. You're going to have some fun sometimes. Yeah. And so, if you're going to have only one manually driven car, let's uh let's take it to the limits and way past the limits."
Confusion. Establishes autonomous with inevitibility. Claims demo car is not automous, then claims it is autonomous, because its dangerous to drive it manually. Plants the idea that its the only car you're gonna need, you can drive it manually, and its the ultimate experience.
We all watched the same demo.
Some of us saw an amazing future.
The rest of us saw a circus selling timeshare condos.
As much as I dislike Tesla, a lot of this feels like pretty standard legalize that would be in most reservation or pre-order documents to protect the company. Can anyone speak to if this is truly unique for in this case?
If there's anything we've learned in the US in the past ten years, is that this new breed of corporations and government officials will gladly take the "standard" set of rules that everyone has been operating in in good faith and exploit the gaps as hard as humanly possible.
There's probably going to be a single trick car someone can demo remotely (no passengers) somewhere like an hour away from LA, it will very often be down for maintenance, and everyone will only be able to buy the street legal version of the car which won't be available for another 3 years
It's getting near to winter. Take your FSD Tesla to Pittsburgh (complete with poor street painting, and potholes) or Montreal, wait for a nice snowing night.
Report back to us how well your FSD Tesla gets you across town with no interventions. We'll be ready to hear the glowing review.
one one hand, i think showmanship can be used to generate interest for something that is far off and thus allow humans to pursue long term goals and i think elon has used this tactic in the past for the right reasons but these days it seems like he just uses this tactic to deceive people - almost like trump.
It’s all about how you frame it. He could have framed it as a technology demo instead of as a new car that will ship. That would have been equally impressive and more honest.
I maintain that the entire event was to create a trail of evidence that justifies merging Tesla and SpaceX. No car will ever ship.
You can hear it in the voices of the creators, when they're giving an overview of the car to MotorWeek and other car media outlets. 99% focused on the rocket and battery tech/innovation, almost zero about the actual driving characteristics of the car, or that it -is- a car. Seems more like a rolling marketing mule.
The specs of the base (non-rocket-powered) car are pretty mediocre: RWD-only with 320 mile range. That's not terribly impressive in 2026, by 2028 it will be obsolete on delivery. The styling can charitably be described as generic. I agree, I don't think they have any intention of making this car.
You're right, this is a very fair point. But if you had a choice between two sports cars with similar performance specs and one had 400+ mile range, you'd probably be inclined to take that one, all else being equal. This is a highly optimized version of older battery technology, which will be even older by the time it goes to production; you'd think that a car with a rocket option would also include a cutting edge battery.
And what other electric sports car can you buy? Oh wait, I almost forgot, they don’t exist. Unless you count the >$2M Rimac which is stated to go out of production at the end of this year. If this roadster becomes available, it could easily be the only electric sports car on the market.
Sedan, sedan, not in us market, not in us market, not in us market… this roadster is going to be made in the US for the US market, which in terms of supercars/hypercars is a huge part of the global market.
At this point, the Roadster doesn't exist either, at least as a production car. The sibling comment lists several potential competitors. My guess is that if the Roadster somehow draws a bunch of new pre-orders, there will be more by 2028.
To be fair the claimed ~1.6sec 0-60 acceleration speed is impressive - this is the benefit of electric - although if you have enough money you can already do that today in the way sexier looking Rimac Nevera R.
I guess you could rent a trace track to give it a try, but yeah ... Supercars are more for posing than being very practical. Bughatti Veyron tire life at top speed is 15 MINUTES.
And for anything else, it doesn't matter. My RS 5 might take 7:55 around the Nordschleife, versus a Model S Plaid at 7:35... but when the Tesla pulls in after its lap for "thermal throttling", the Audi will just ... keep going. I think the last time I got bored and curious, at 130mph and a full tank of gas, the Audi will just keep going for about 200 miles before needing the gas station. The Model S will get ... 75-80.
I love adrenaline, and a 2s (or less) 0-60 time is exhilarating. But a 3s isn't much less fun, and on a commute, is not practically any different.
I'd rather my performance car takes significant winding ocean roads like its on rails, than my BIL's performance car which by his own words (and both our experience) is "significantly sloppier and a lot more hair raising".
And then I get the joys, living near a base, of 19 year old E-2s with base Challengers thinking they have a "performance car" and constantly wanting to race me.
The original 2nd-gen Roadster reveal claimed a 200kwh battery pack and 600+ miles of range. There were analysts arguing at the time that the state of the art in battery tech could not possibly allow for that much capacity in that size car. This smacks of the same BS that happened with the Cybertruck — the originally announced range/pricing was far, far better than what actually shipped.
There should be legal investigations into this practice, because it’s extremely deceptive.
In a contemporary interview with Marques Brownlee, Musk said they didn’t currently have the technology and the specs were an extrapolation for what they expected to be available on release.
Oh, just like how they "projected" that the Cybertruck would be able to tow a Porsche faster than the Porsche itself, or they released "simulated" Plaid numbers.
It got to the point where even Tesla's lawyers had to get involved, and numerous reports from Tesla disclaim that "Elon Musk's statements are aspirational and may not reflect engineering realities".
If they are really going to install fans to generate downforce, they will need space that the battery could otherwise occupy. The lower weight of a smaller battery is also beneficial for acceleration.
Based on the specs, I wouldn't compare the (non-existing) roadster to regular electric cars, but rather to something like the McMurtry Spéirling, which also has active downforce. It's not about range, but acceleration and cornering speed.
That'd be funny. An insurance where if you want to make a claim, you just get met with a Grok-bot that'll do the airbnb-style fucking to you (ignore the complaints, minimize them, be as stupid and slow as possible, and offer 10% of the refund that the complainant will frustratedly take as "at least it's something").
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[ 5.1 ms ] story [ 75.6 ms ] threadSomeone add that to the list of bullshit he said.
If you believe what you write, it’s easy money for you. Deal?
Yes, and note that this has already happened: the original Roadster v2 from 2017 never shipped and was replaced with this one.
Note that the only version of the car that could conceivably be street legal is the base one with fan only, and no cold thruster launch - NTSB is never going to approve throwing out a condensation cloud smokescreen on the highway!
He tweeted back in 2019 there would be a flying roadster.
Promises made, promises kept?
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1083095876392964096
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1083128521801822213
Broken clock, etc.
https://elonmusk.today/#flying-roadster
The dialog of the event spelled it out.
"We are here at SpaceX's uh rocket test and development center in McGregor, Texas. It's 4,000 acres. Thank you for having us. Thank you for hosting us, SpaceX."
Establishes SpaceX as a giant.
"we're 20 years from when Elon first introduced the Roadster to the world. And it was really a proof of concept that proved EVs were viable product, fun to drive, could go the distance."
Establishes Elon/Tesla as an innovator. Spells out clearly the context "proof of concept." Associates "demonstrations" with "proof." Introduces the concepts of "fun", "viable", and "longevity" aka "distance."
"They were real cars. And look at how far we've come in those 20 years."
Compares introduction of a car, with current demonstration, and establishes the idea that todays "flying car" is going to be just as successful, given time.
"But you know, the last time we had Roadster and SpaceX together, we put Elons's into into orbit."
Establishes "the sky as the limit" as to what these two companies can do together. The heart of the entire sales pitch.
"And you can see there, and you know, Starman is still out there somewhere. Amazing feat."
Defines "creating more space junk for publicity stunts" as an "amazing feat."
"you're going to see the results of what happens when you have a collaboration with the world's best car company and the world's best rocket company."
Repetition of the sales pitch to cement it.
"The future is autonomous, Elon, right? Yes. But this is not an autonomous car. It is the last. Well, it it is technically autonomous for this demo to make sure we don't kill anyone. Correct. So, just in case. Uh, but uh this will actually be long-term the only uh manually driven car that Tesla makes. You're going to have some fun sometimes. Yeah. And so, if you're going to have only one manually driven car, let's uh let's take it to the limits and way past the limits."
Confusion. Establishes autonomous with inevitibility. Claims demo car is not automous, then claims it is autonomous, because its dangerous to drive it manually. Plants the idea that its the only car you're gonna need, you can drive it manually, and its the ultimate experience.
We all watched the same demo.
Some of us saw an amazing future.
The rest of us saw a circus selling timeshare condos.
(How many layers of sarcasm does this comment have...)
Instead of S3XY cars we get stunts. Solar roofs, Concept car roadsters, and of course humanoid robots.
If only Tesla would be interested in cars again.
He still has a lot of wealthy acolytes (for some reason) and they live for exclusive new shit.
There's people that preordered their Roadster in 2017....
And they are rumoring now 2028 production, which in Tesla style will be deep in 2030s.
I have FSD and it’s amazing.
Report back to us how well your FSD Tesla gets you across town with no interventions. We'll be ready to hear the glowing review.
You can hear it in the voices of the creators, when they're giving an overview of the car to MotorWeek and other car media outlets. 99% focused on the rocket and battery tech/innovation, almost zero about the actual driving characteristics of the car, or that it -is- a car. Seems more like a rolling marketing mule.
It's about right there with other sports cars rated ranges; 911/M4 get around 300-350 and the Corvette hits 400ish.
a road rally from LA to LV is 270ish miles. What else do you need a hyper-car-thing for?
Now we just need to get some goofy Musk tunnels involved so there's a reason to have the fan suction.
(aside from breaking the windows of traffic behind you with road debris)
They also enable the insane launch traction needed for the non thrust 0-60.
It's the key to the cars performance.
At this point, the Roadster doesn't exist either, at least as a production car. The sibling comment lists several potential competitors. My guess is that if the Roadster somehow draws a bunch of new pre-orders, there will be more by 2028.
I love adrenaline, and a 2s (or less) 0-60 time is exhilarating. But a 3s isn't much less fun, and on a commute, is not practically any different.
And then I get the joys, living near a base, of 19 year old E-2s with base Challengers thinking they have a "performance car" and constantly wanting to race me.
There should be legal investigations into this practice, because it’s extremely deceptive.
This isn’t a comment on your broader point.
It got to the point where even Tesla's lawyers had to get involved, and numerous reports from Tesla disclaim that "Elon Musk's statements are aspirational and may not reflect engineering realities".
Based on the specs, I wouldn't compare the (non-existing) roadster to regular electric cars, but rather to something like the McMurtry Spéirling, which also has active downforce. It's not about range, but acceleration and cornering speed.
Insane acceleration to get up the ramp and enough fuel to land safely.
Unless you have a giant ramp or a penchant to drive off cliffs who is lining up for this?
That'd be funny. An insurance where if you want to make a claim, you just get met with a Grok-bot that'll do the airbnb-style fucking to you (ignore the complaints, minimize them, be as stupid and slow as possible, and offer 10% of the refund that the complainant will frustratedly take as "at least it's something").