Negative Free Cash Flow are the words every one on HN needs to learn.
Every thing before now, you will look back upon as the happy time. When every year storage, ram and compute grew and the prices went down. Your cloud provider made so much money they paid cash for hardware.
Now they borrow at 8% and net margins on ram/storage were around $0.10/GB ... today they sit at over a dollar. (SEE micron's s10's if you want to check the math on that).
Forget circular financing, its a circular firing squad because your going to have to figure out where the hell your going to run any of your gear.
4x to 10x for ram +8% for financing +30percent AWS margins. Good luck everyone its gonna get rough out there.
The capital (heh) mistake in the whole assumption that these companies are worth that much is that they'll crash the economy in their zeal to get there. And when the economy goes down the drain so do the expenditures because in the end the companies that could spend money on AI are taking that money out of the economy to put it in the pockets of a tiny fraction of society. You can only do that if you are willing to leave the rest without food on the table and that sort of move is simply not very wise.
It seems that Meta didn't mention one aspect of their "next-generation" AI training system: their incompetent web crawler hammers websites while completely ignoring robots.txt. Meta's 57.141.0.0/24 made up about 90% of all requests to my server this past week, and it didn't stop after I blocked it. They continue to make a request every 2 seconds despite me responding with a 403 every time. Truly an engineering marvel that Meta has bestowed upon us.
(Rhetorical question) Who would you trust scraping your website? Google, for who among all their issues I haven't seen complaints of "Google is ddosing the web", both pre and post LLM
Or Meta, run by someone of Zuckerberg's character that wants to dominate everything and it shows by how many requests per minute? He's one of the reasons sites now have to implement bot blocking technologies
Those identified themselves are not the worst ones.
I have seen crawlers fake chrome and edge from a set of Brazil residential IPs crawling at 1.5m req/hour for 3 hours, and it comes back every four weeks at same time.
Yes the reason is they're pushing the GPUs hard so that they fail, and having hot spares saves the job until helping hands can go replace the bad component.
> The Ariel variant of GB200 NVL72 pairs each NVIDIA Blackwell GPU with an NVIDIA Grace CPU and 2x NVIDIA ConnectX-7 400G NICs at a 1:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio, letting us deploy 800G of I/O per GPU earlier than the rest of the industry
If the 1:1 ratio was purely for I/O (big assumption, very likely wrong), I am curious why they did not just go with ConnectX-8? Other hyperscalers have been shipping NVL72 clusters with ConnectX-8 on roughly the same timeline, and it offers the same 800Gb/s of throughput.
Managing a custom Ariel variant (which seems to be a Meta-only build) is not insignificant complexity, I wonder if they had another need for that 2x CPU-GPU ratio in their workloads.
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[ 0.21 ms ] story [ 10.0 ms ] threadNegative Free Cash Flow are the words every one on HN needs to learn.
Every thing before now, you will look back upon as the happy time. When every year storage, ram and compute grew and the prices went down. Your cloud provider made so much money they paid cash for hardware.
Now they borrow at 8% and net margins on ram/storage were around $0.10/GB ... today they sit at over a dollar. (SEE micron's s10's if you want to check the math on that).
Forget circular financing, its a circular firing squad because your going to have to figure out where the hell your going to run any of your gear.
4x to 10x for ram +8% for financing +30percent AWS margins. Good luck everyone its gonna get rough out there.
Or Meta, run by someone of Zuckerberg's character that wants to dominate everything and it shows by how many requests per minute? He's one of the reasons sites now have to implement bot blocking technologies
So they can do something which used to be considered stalking
Every single thing this company does would get an individual thrown in jail
Why do the zuck and his goon squad get a free pass to literally be criminals?
What's Meta's ASN? May be simpler to just null-route the entire organization.
I have seen crawlers fake chrome and edge from a set of Brazil residential IPs crawling at 1.5m req/hour for 3 hours, and it comes back every four weeks at same time.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921118
If the 1:1 ratio was purely for I/O (big assumption, very likely wrong), I am curious why they did not just go with ConnectX-8? Other hyperscalers have been shipping NVL72 clusters with ConnectX-8 on roughly the same timeline, and it offers the same 800Gb/s of throughput.
Managing a custom Ariel variant (which seems to be a Meta-only build) is not insignificant complexity, I wonder if they had another need for that 2x CPU-GPU ratio in their workloads.