> "By Kpler's count, the GCC states are now moving about 24 million barrels per day out of the region, including volumes transported by overland pipeline."
Complete BS article. I guess Kpler is the propaganda mouthpiece.
The article double-counts "Hormuz Shuttle" ship-to-ship (STS) transfers and misreads pipeline capacity.
An example: If 14 mb/d is moving through the Strait of Hormuz, getting to 24 mb/d requires 10 mb/d to move via overland bypass pipelines. In reality, the only two bypass pipelines out of the Gulf have a combined physical ceiling of ~6.5 to 8.5 mb/d. (And that's when they're fully operational, which may not be the case today!)
Many more obvious mistakes in this "analysis." It's totally bunk.
Given the government in power wouldn’t that cause them to skew the reports the other way? Its kore in the Americans’ interest to make this supply claim.
Then again, a hard core monarchist of any stripe is unlikely to be a rational thinker.
The role of Kpler and the likes of The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) here is to encourage mounting pressure (and eventually yet another war) on Iran by claiming that things are working out in US's favor, so that the global economic pain does force Trump to change course.
Looking at the title and just hearing news from the strait and gas prices, it’s obvious they are not saying these barrels reached anywhere in the same amount.
I don’t know you figure there’s double counting from that article: the shuttles to Fujairah are transiting the strait.
I’m also dubious about the gross figures but I do think it’s an interesting possibility (if they are correct then there’s an uncharacteristic overshoot in pricing, which seems suspicious). But ppl in the industry seem to take Kpler seriously — I just saw them at Gastech last month).
We need to move the global economy off fossil fuels and and an opex-driven fuel system in general. Fortunately that shift is finally well under way, except in the US.
Kpler is a commercial data broker, not a political institution; they have no incentive to lie to their customers. Where are you seeing the article double counting ship transfers? The article doesn't try to do any math, it just cites Kpler. If 8.5Mb is current pipeline capacity, is it possible there could be other overland shipments making up the remaining 1.5Mb?
It's interesting, something struck me as off about the analysis. I mean it could well be true but the price of oil and VLCC daily rates suggest it probably isn't.
There's a tonne of articles resharing this Kpler analysis. The closest to corroboration I could find was references to Marisks and Vortexa data.
This Russian site[0] quotes the following:
> Oil flows from Persian Gulf producers excluding Iran rebounded to more than 81% of pre-war levels in September, averaging 19.2m barrels per day against about 23.6m bpd in the year before the regional conflict began on 28 February, according to Vortexa.
But assuming that analysis is paywalled I can't find it anywhere, and the article also relies on the Kpler analysis extensively.
Marisks is just about ship movements so doesn't really add anything to the picture. All that to say, it may well be true but the current story and way it is being propagated seem fishy.
Something's not adding up. Surely demand for oil is not so inflexible as to sustain such greatly increased prices at pre-war levels of supply, right? Has demand for oil increased since the start of the war for some reason? Or is there another factor beyond the Iran war now driving the entirety of the reduction in supply? The Russia-Ukraine war?
Oil demand is inflexable when considering the demand has rarely been based around refilling reserves. Strategic reserves are depleted across the globe, china in particular.
Even with those releases of reserves, economies/markets relying on diesel went into limp mode due to the FUD about war. So, now need to catch up.(it's almost as if the back and forth messaging is designed to shock the markets, allowing for trade manipulation....)
Anyways, The first priority to return to pre-war oil economy is to refill those reserves and exit limp mode.
Pricing will not go down in a predictable trend until that happens, and even at >pre-war production levels, that will take decades to get back due to the "squeeze" cost.
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[ 1.5 ms ] story [ 4.5 ms ] threadIt’s going, just not where it was before.
Complete BS article. I guess Kpler is the propaganda mouthpiece.
The article double-counts "Hormuz Shuttle" ship-to-ship (STS) transfers and misreads pipeline capacity.
An example: If 14 mb/d is moving through the Strait of Hormuz, getting to 24 mb/d requires 10 mb/d to move via overland bypass pipelines. In reality, the only two bypass pipelines out of the Gulf have a combined physical ceiling of ~6.5 to 8.5 mb/d. (And that's when they're fully operational, which may not be the case today!)
Many more obvious mistakes in this "analysis." It's totally bunk.
Then again, a hard core monarchist of any stripe is unlikely to be a rational thinker.
I’m also dubious about the gross figures but I do think it’s an interesting possibility (if they are correct then there’s an uncharacteristic overshoot in pricing, which seems suspicious). But ppl in the industry seem to take Kpler seriously — I just saw them at Gastech last month).
I can’t find the referenced report (it could be just a subscriber note) but here’s a blog entry on how they count: https://www.kpler.com/blog/explainer-the-nuances-of-reading-...
We need to move the global economy off fossil fuels and and an opex-driven fuel system in general. Fortunately that shift is finally well under way, except in the US.
There's a tonne of articles resharing this Kpler analysis. The closest to corroboration I could find was references to Marisks and Vortexa data.
This Russian site[0] quotes the following:
> Oil flows from Persian Gulf producers excluding Iran rebounded to more than 81% of pre-war levels in September, averaging 19.2m barrels per day against about 23.6m bpd in the year before the regional conflict began on 28 February, according to Vortexa.
But assuming that analysis is paywalled I can't find it anywhere, and the article also relies on the Kpler analysis extensively.
Marisks is just about ship movements so doesn't really add anything to the picture. All that to say, it may well be true but the current story and way it is being propagated seem fishy.
[0]: https://en.portnews.ru/news/397951
"What is happening with US Sealift command?"
"what has happened to american shipping?"
"Why are american port automations ruining economies?"
"why is "program ___" costing so much?"
Well, Sal. It might just have something to do with the leadership you voted for.
Even with those releases of reserves, economies/markets relying on diesel went into limp mode due to the FUD about war. So, now need to catch up.(it's almost as if the back and forth messaging is designed to shock the markets, allowing for trade manipulation....)
Anyways, The first priority to return to pre-war oil economy is to refill those reserves and exit limp mode. Pricing will not go down in a predictable trend until that happens, and even at >pre-war production levels, that will take decades to get back due to the "squeeze" cost.