We only need look at what the computer did to many (60%) non-college educated people who have difficultly finding meaningful work which can provide for a family.
Daron Acemoglu is talking about this and Building Pro-Worker AI. His 2024 Nobel Prize lecture is quite good (as are his fellow laureates that year)
It's not just computers. It was also deregulation, financialization, and globalization. They all happened at the same time.
Computers are still a significant factor because most new tasks created were cognitive and needed university education. Or another way, the automation that computers brought eliminated jobs in labor, but we did not create new jobs for those people. The three others were instrumental in that side of the equation.
Well, we did create new jobs for them technically. It’s just that the jobs are terrible. Those disrupted in the past 20 years have been given gig-economy BS to replace their jobs.
The jobs created for the factory workers and the former professional retail workers, in the 90s, were in big-box stores.
Yes. It removes political power. As a thought experiment, what happens when sanitation workers go on strike? What would happen if all trash collection was automated?
What happens when a group of people goes from the driver's of the economy to a cost center?
No it doesn't. People can still protest, block roads, boycott etc... If they get UBI/UHI, they will have more time to engage politically too (in a productive way).
You obviously haven't lived in a country where labor strikes are a frequent occurrence. They block the roads for weeks, sometimes months at a time and products disappear from the shelves. Often, the police do nothing. This is where everything is heading. That's reality when most of the population is dissatisfied.
Obviously, the solution is to make it economically impossible for people to go on strike long enough for products to disappear from the shelves. Lax labour laws, high cost-of-living, privatized healthcare.
Why do you think Americans don’t go on strike like the French? Not many workers can afford to be out of a job, out of health insurance and eggs $30 a dozen.
I doubt you can prevent this using laws. In unequal societies where the politics is controlled by the majority, laws tend to make things worse, not better. Americans are already beginning to find out what happens when the political system becomes controlled by people who hate the country. This is a reality which France (and especially colonies) have been operating under for quite some time.
Perhaps the real answer is people’s buying power. If people can’t withhold their work, they could withhold their spending, ie boycott misbehaving entities.
>> Yes. It removes political power. As a thought experiment, what happens when sanitation workers go on strike? What would happen if all trash collection was automated?
>> What happens when a group of people goes from the driver's of the economy to a cost center?
> Perhaps the real answer is people’s buying power. If people can’t withhold their work, they could withhold their spending, ie boycott misbehaving entities.
But if they don't have work, they won't have buying power to withhold. Post AI-displacement, the economy will reorient around serving the people who still have buying power (the oligarchs and their hangers-on).
Expect demand for food to plummet and demand for dick-waving pyramids to skyrocket.
I came to this conclusion too and felt rather defeated, existential crisis, etc. But the more I thought about it, the more I realized that if we had a country of 250 million unemployed angry folks (many of them armed), I'm not so sure it'd be the wealthy in control.
> But the more I thought about it, the more I realized that if we had a country of 250 million unemployed angry folks (many of them armed), I'm not so sure it'd be the wealthy in control.
It depends on how hard they'll fight, but technology just doesn't seem like it's a force for good anymore. I could imagine that, in the face of a revolt against automation, some fraction of the oligarchs will just establish a Ukraine-war like AI-drone kill-zone to protect their assets. If they do that, they'd probably win.
But it probably wouldn't get to that point, because, given the online nature of culture, AI-powered surveillance and AI-powered social interference could very likely thwart any revolt before it starts.
They start waving flags around, voting for someone who will promise to "make things great again" all the while languishing in poverty and dying of fentanyl overdoses
The majority of anti-tech sentiment in America has been coming out of left-leaning circles for the last five years. Go look at a video of the people protesting data centers in your nearest metropole; I guarantee you they look nothing like the caricature you have in your head.
“what happens when sanitation workers go on strike? What would happen if all trash collection was automated?”
This is an interesting question and I’d love to come to a good answer that works for all, but can we also accept that we went from a world that had people manually light lamps around the city like 150 [1] years ago to the full electric lights. Do we then stop that progress now and keep people manually collecting garbage when a replacement tech is around the corner?
[1] mm more like 120 years. The last lamplighters strikes was close to 1907 in NYC
Look at the Roman Republic and how things went for the plebes as more and more slaves took over all the work. I pointed out in another thread they went form citizen farmers to having huge farms owned by the rich worked by slaves. Rome had to implement the bread dole so people could eat.
Of course. This has been proven again and again on the economic level. People have to let go of old skills and learn new ones to survive.
For AI though, there is a mental angle which is being discussed now (brain gyms etc.) which was an early concern of mine. When we make something, there is an tangible value created for the buyer/consumer but there is also a more subtle positive effect the on the builder/maker. e.g. even if it's it's cheaper, faster, (and in an imaginary worlds), more healthy to buy packaged food, sitting down and making it subtly changes the chef who makes the food. Sort of the motivation for a grandmother baking a cake for her grandkids.
I've been able to realise many of my abandoned projects due to AI. I can spin up a few agents and have them build things completely without intervention more or less. Many of these are programs I use daily. This is definitely huge. However, I remember the kick of struggling with problems during projects which was where most, if not all, the learning happened. All that experience is what makes me able to command and control these agents properly. It had an effect on me beyond the outcome (most of the projects are dead/abandoned anyway). Another example - I remember an old company called "Bond" which had a robot to create stationery using a calligraphic hand. Contrast that to the almost spiritual effect doing calligraphy has on a master penman. Using automation to create fine calligraphy gets you the former but the individual and society loses the latter. It's not immediately clear to me what the end result will be but I do feel that a lot is being lost.
I like that calligraphy example, I am afraid that's how a field would stagnate: the tools become advanced, but now with less and less people wanting to approach and struggle with learning the field, the human intuition, the community effort, and the mastery to push past the bleeding edge withers.
Think about ceramic dinner plates and other table items.
You can get a brand new dinner plate or cereal bowl or coffee cup for a pittance - but you can also get a hand-shaped, hand-painted cat-themed coffee mug at a significantly higher price. Adult education courses in ceramics support the base of amateur and semi-pro practitioners.
I have sometimes observed that dinner plates are surprisingly expensive in pricing. Or at least sometimes they seem to. You do get really cheap ones too. But on average it seems many are quite or somewhat expensive.
While I agree that new skills must be learnt to survive, what exactly are these new skills in the AI-age?
I see this line everywhere - whenever someone's mourning their loss of a career, there's responses telling the person to "man up" (for lack of a better phrase) and learn new skills. Nobody says what these "new skills" are?
it's unknown, because those skills and work associated with them are not yet created.
Just like how being a live streamer (or youtuber) is not a known skill until the advent of streaming platforms and their associated economies. If you asked on the internet in 1995 what kids would have done for a job in 2025, none of them would've said streamer.
Understood. Then how does one brace for the upcoming slaughter? People knew that getting into software would become the hot new thing - almost guaranteeing a source of income. Hence the "push" for everyone to get into "coding", at least in my country (India) and from what I've heard on the internet - the US too.
I don't have a clear answer myself. But there are multiple dimensions to this.
First is from an employment, livelihood perspective. I don't know the "right" answer but like with most things, it's easy to see the wrong ones - Bury your head in the sand and declare that this is just a passing phase, insist on going deeper into curmudgeon territory waxing nostalgic about the "Golden Era" of programming that's over etc. The opposites (trying out the new tools that are being released, reading up on things happening and developing a mental model of how things are moving etc.) seem to be sensible things to do.
Second, from a personal perspective. Here too, inversion is useful. Stopping to think is a bad idea. Like all our faculties, you lose what you don't use. So, actively learning things that are hard (a new "natural" language, a new phsyical skill that you wanted to) will help keep you sharp. Recreational programming is fine I guess and you can use AI to give you that you extra push when you're mired in an area that you don't care for and which you know how to do but are avoiding because of the tedium.
When the demand for work comes, it's quite clear to me that someone who's done what they can and has a some insight on what's going on has an advantage over the person who hasn't. Whether that translates into economical opportunities is beyond us to say but it's beyond our control as well so there's no point in worrying about it.
They’re unknown because they don’t exist. There will simply be skills that haven’t yet been automated, but nothing will remain out of reach. The idea of having a career in a single field is probably dead, unless that field is minimum wage laborer.
Guilty... but also, I think about article up/downvotes an order of magnitude less than I click the links. I wonder what fraction of users do voting without clicking links.
49 comments
[ 0.52 ms ] story [ 26.5 ms ] threadDaron Acemoglu is talking about this and Building Pro-Worker AI. His 2024 Nobel Prize lecture is quite good (as are his fellow laureates that year)
https://www.nber.org/papers/w34854
Computers are still a significant factor because most new tasks created were cognitive and needed university education. Or another way, the automation that computers brought eliminated jobs in labor, but we did not create new jobs for those people. The three others were instrumental in that side of the equation.
The jobs created for the factory workers and the former professional retail workers, in the 90s, were in big-box stores.
What happens when a group of people goes from the driver's of the economy to a cost center?
Why do you think Americans don’t go on strike like the French? Not many workers can afford to be out of a job, out of health insurance and eggs $30 a dozen.
>> What happens when a group of people goes from the driver's of the economy to a cost center?
> Perhaps the real answer is people’s buying power. If people can’t withhold their work, they could withhold their spending, ie boycott misbehaving entities.
But if they don't have work, they won't have buying power to withhold. Post AI-displacement, the economy will reorient around serving the people who still have buying power (the oligarchs and their hangers-on).
Expect demand for food to plummet and demand for dick-waving pyramids to skyrocket.
It depends on how hard they'll fight, but technology just doesn't seem like it's a force for good anymore. I could imagine that, in the face of a revolt against automation, some fraction of the oligarchs will just establish a Ukraine-war like AI-drone kill-zone to protect their assets. If they do that, they'd probably win.
But it probably wouldn't get to that point, because, given the online nature of culture, AI-powered surveillance and AI-powered social interference could very likely thwart any revolt before it starts.
This is an interesting question and I’d love to come to a good answer that works for all, but can we also accept that we went from a world that had people manually light lamps around the city like 150 [1] years ago to the full electric lights. Do we then stop that progress now and keep people manually collecting garbage when a replacement tech is around the corner?
[1] mm more like 120 years. The last lamplighters strikes was close to 1907 in NYC
People got very very angry at me for pointing this out.
So I stopped doing it.
For AI though, there is a mental angle which is being discussed now (brain gyms etc.) which was an early concern of mine. When we make something, there is an tangible value created for the buyer/consumer but there is also a more subtle positive effect the on the builder/maker. e.g. even if it's it's cheaper, faster, (and in an imaginary worlds), more healthy to buy packaged food, sitting down and making it subtly changes the chef who makes the food. Sort of the motivation for a grandmother baking a cake for her grandkids.
I've been able to realise many of my abandoned projects due to AI. I can spin up a few agents and have them build things completely without intervention more or less. Many of these are programs I use daily. This is definitely huge. However, I remember the kick of struggling with problems during projects which was where most, if not all, the learning happened. All that experience is what makes me able to command and control these agents properly. It had an effect on me beyond the outcome (most of the projects are dead/abandoned anyway). Another example - I remember an old company called "Bond" which had a robot to create stationery using a calligraphic hand. Contrast that to the almost spiritual effect doing calligraphy has on a master penman. Using automation to create fine calligraphy gets you the former but the individual and society loses the latter. It's not immediately clear to me what the end result will be but I do feel that a lot is being lost.
This is the problem.
(Unless if AGI could do something like that.)
You can get a brand new dinner plate or cereal bowl or coffee cup for a pittance - but you can also get a hand-shaped, hand-painted cat-themed coffee mug at a significantly higher price. Adult education courses in ceramics support the base of amateur and semi-pro practitioners.
I see this line everywhere - whenever someone's mourning their loss of a career, there's responses telling the person to "man up" (for lack of a better phrase) and learn new skills. Nobody says what these "new skills" are?
it's unknown, because those skills and work associated with them are not yet created.
Just like how being a live streamer (or youtuber) is not a known skill until the advent of streaming platforms and their associated economies. If you asked on the internet in 1995 what kids would have done for a job in 2025, none of them would've said streamer.
How do people brace for the changes AI brings?
First step is to let go of the fear of it.
Sounds cheesy but reading Ekehardt Tolle helped me.
First is from an employment, livelihood perspective. I don't know the "right" answer but like with most things, it's easy to see the wrong ones - Bury your head in the sand and declare that this is just a passing phase, insist on going deeper into curmudgeon territory waxing nostalgic about the "Golden Era" of programming that's over etc. The opposites (trying out the new tools that are being released, reading up on things happening and developing a mental model of how things are moving etc.) seem to be sensible things to do.
Second, from a personal perspective. Here too, inversion is useful. Stopping to think is a bad idea. Like all our faculties, you lose what you don't use. So, actively learning things that are hard (a new "natural" language, a new phsyical skill that you wanted to) will help keep you sharp. Recreational programming is fine I guess and you can use AI to give you that you extra push when you're mired in an area that you don't care for and which you know how to do but are avoiding because of the tedium.
When the demand for work comes, it's quite clear to me that someone who's done what they can and has a some insight on what's going on has an advantage over the person who hasn't. Whether that translates into economical opportunities is beyond us to say but it's beyond our control as well so there's no point in worrying about it.
You're blind to the stuff that's easy making previously impossible things hard.
This change threatens to hurt those who move with it, too.
I think the stats on interactions across the board are probably ridiculous though.
I wish for a HN, reddit, etc, where you have to vote and comment to even be served more content.
[1] https://get.paid.ai/hubfs/The%20$2.7%20Billion%20Agent%20Tax...