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Ask HN: What are the chances that GMail is the next in line?

2 points by joering2 ↗ HN
After GoogleReader being shut down, what are the chances the same faith will happend to GMail?

If one rightfuly believe that Google is all about profits, then GMail should be shut down long time ago. Their ads on GMail barely work because most people focus on reading emails and working and it must cost pretty fortune to run everyones 10GB of up to date, instantly searchable email archive.

10 comments

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tempestn
I'd say the chances are approximately zero. Reader was a niche product with a user base orders of magnitude smaller than GMail. Do you have any evidence that gmail ads aren't effective? Or that the other information Google gleans from it isn't valuable? Besides, even if it were profitable, it would obviously be PR suicide to shut it down. Hackers care about RSS, and can easily find another reader. Everyone cares about gmail.
joering2
So you think there are no other email providers, just like there are no other RSS readers?
mtgx
All Android devices are tied to Gmail accounts. So zero.
dangrossman
Android devices are attached to Google Accounts. Gmail is just one service that can be attached to a Google Account. I don't use Gmail; my login for my Android phone, YouTube, AdWords and all other Google services is my own e-mail address on my own domain.
orangethirty
There is one thing that could happen. Google could simply turn gmail into a messaging system for G+. Forcing gmail users to use G+ in order to use their email address. Sort of like the inverse of what Facebook is doing.

This would tie down all G+ messaging and your emails into one convenient interface for Google to fuck you over with.

ETA: 2014. But don't take my word for it.

dreamdu5t
Sounds very plausible. Especially when you consider that people are using Facebook more and more for email/messaging.
orangethirty
Another thing is that the social interfaces that these networks provide are just to good to pass up for the masses. They get one single app on their phone that can handle messaging, pictures, sharing, and video. No need for any other account. No need to remember passwords. All of that plus the future move that the social networks are going to make to become payment gateways. That would basically turn them into a one stop shop for their users to do anything/everything they can think of online.

Email as it is known today will change very soon. All the protocols will be replaced by simple JSON-like data structures being fed off by APIs (not public or open).

Trapick
First, storage doesn't cost google all that much - on the app engine they charge $0.24/GB/month, so their own cost for gmail is likely a lot lower than that. And it's hardly 10GB per person - I'm a heavy user with lots of email, never delete anything, etc. and I have 0.8GB in my gmail this very minute (compressed or not? I'm not sure). So for their average user, probably less than half a gig. So maybe $0.10 a month for the storage. There are other costs, to be sure, but there's a ballpark.

So a couple ad clicks a month would probably do it - and you forget the biggest thing - gmail means you're that much closer to google. They have more info about you, you'll search through them more, you're more likely to get an android phone, etc. etc.

Gmail isn't going away.

iends
Gmail is ubiquitous. Zero chance it shuts down until something better comes along.