"To keep the soft ground from collapsing, engineers snaked coils of coolant through the soil to form a protective arch of frozen earth. That let crews work safely while traffic rumbled overhead. Cost: $1 million per foot."
I wonder if this is the cost of actually applying this technique, or also includes the cost of researching and testing the safety of this method prior to using it on this project.
It likely includes all of the preliminary engineering geotech, and environmental work that came before implementation. You can't just freeze the ground like that, there are a lot of potential adverse effects (ground) shifts being the biggest) that have to be accounted for and mitigated.
That's about standard for a deep-bore tunnel in the U.S. these days. The 1.7 mile long Central Subway in SF is $1.6b (without factoring in the inevitable cost overruns.)
Given that most of us spend... 1/3 of their waking time at work, I think it's safe to say that a commuter's time is worth ~1/3 of their average wage.
20 minutes saved in a round-trip, times 250 days a year, times 160,000 people is 800,000,000 man-minutes, or ~13,000,000 man-hours a year. With an average NYC income of $20/hour, and time being worth a third of hourly income... that's $87,000,000 of life saved, per year. At 8.4 billion dollars for the construction, that does look bleak.
If you bump up the commuter's average wage to ~$50/hour, though, we'd be looking at ~220,000,000 of life saved, per year.
However, that's the lower bound on the public benefit of the project. Some of the costs will be paid through user fees. Others through economic development among the areas served by the line. As far as ditch-digging projects go, this one's probably on par for public ROI.
If we did nothing but count coppers, America would never have built the Interstates.
Presumably an extra hour of free time is worth roughly the same as an extra hour of work, otherwise more people would be working overtime. Of course there are plenty of exceptions, and limits imposed by standard length work days/weeks, but I think it should hold on average.
>Presumably an extra hour of free time is worth roughly the same as an extra hour of work, otherwise more people would be working overtime.
People work as many hours as workforce pressure, norms and laws have them too. If they could get the same salary working for 5 hours a day, they would, and if they could get by, pay for food and rent and stuff for less salary and/or without working they would to. (I mean that for the huge masses, whose jobs don't "define" them -- not for the (far fewer) geek coders, artists, workaholics, etc.).
So I don't think you can put a value on "free time". This only tells you how much people are payed for the hours they are forced to put in to work. It doesn't automatically mean that we can assume their free hours are worth as much.
Not to mention: is an hour of free time for a top lawyer (which makes $1000 per hour) worth more than an hour of free time for a McDonald's employee? Does that also mean their lives are not worth the same?
I think you mistyped $260,000,000. That brings that benefits estimate close to 3% of the costs.
You also can put in gains that those not taking the subway will get from this. 160,000 fewer people on buses and in cars means faster traffic above ground.
Finally, they will simply pay for it from taxation. I know it sounds stupid to some, but IMO, that is the right thing to do. It is just extra costs that have to be made to make new high rise buildings commercially viable.
I've mentioned how I figure that my time's worth ~1/3 of what I make at work. I did, however, miscount - the correct value ought to have been ~$87,000,000
Sorry, missed that. I don't think that argument holds, though, as it indicates that, disregarding time loss due to travel to and from work, you would be willing to work for a third of what you get now.
A more realistic estimate would be 80% or so (you lose 10 hours (8 hours at work + 2 hours travel) of your live in exchange for the money you get)
I would assume that building out more rail will take the pressure off of the current infrastructure and allow a more pleasant commute for many more than just those 160,000 people. Not to mention an easy commute encourages people to move to a certain area, encouraging people with high paying jobs to move to areas, etc.
Exactly. Diverting some of the LIRR's traffic to Grand Central will reduce some of the crowding in Penn Station. During peak hours, LIRR's tracks in Penn Station are currently running at 100% of capacity, so any little problem can cause delays, train cancellations, etc.
It would also reduce crowding on the subway lines that run between Penn Station and the East Side, like the E train.
Given the location, the GDP per capita represented by those 160k riders is probably $100k. So $16 billion in GDP, times the 150 year useful life of the tunnel.
Another way to look at it: NYC issues municipal bonds at 3-5%. Let's say 4.5%. People pay an NYC income tax of 4%, precisely for services like this. Assuming 75k average income for those riders, NYC is collecting about $500m in city income taxes per year from those riders. Interest on $8 billion of bonds is $360m per year. Over 50 years, that income tax revenue is going to increase exponentially, while those interest payments will only increase as interest rates vary (will probably stay within a factor of 2).
This is light rail. Most people commuting in on it probably don't pay NYC personal income tax, as they (usually - there are some LIRR stations in Queens) don't live in the five boroughs.
The MTA, which includes the NYC subways/buses, LIRR and Metro North, spans multiple counties in two states. So its tax base is much broader than just NYC.
Shortened commute times now(ish) will equate long term to greater network capacity. Somehow I don't see demand for commuter bandwidth to/from NYC ever dropping....
We have a similar subway project going here in Amsterdam called the North-South line. It's more than 8 years late, went over its budget multiple times, and is still not finished. City is completing it anyway and hopes it will start making money in ~3013.
Also the line's route is questionably useful to the locals. Somewhere someone is filling his pockets with an evil grin.
We have a similar subway project (remember, the project referenced in the OP is a light rail project). It's more than 70 years late, went over its budget multiple times, and is still not finished.
Unfortunately, the line's route is definitely useful to the locals.
I worked in a tunnel crew in the summer holidays during my degree. It was interesting to see the cultural similarities and differences when I moved into programming. It is probably one of the few industries (at least in the UK) where the majority of the power is in the hands of the workers and not the managers. They were paid significantly more than the managers and broadly speaking the job went ahead on their schedule. Unlike in programming a mistake could cost one of your coworkers their life, which seemed to have something to do with the strong camaraderie, but did also lead to a deep suspicion of unproven outsiders (like myself for the first few weeks I worked there). I prefer to be able to experiment with things and I was a bit too much of a delicate flower to be happy in that environment. I wonder how much the culture in different industries arises from people with certain personalities self selecting into or out of them, and how much is the actual nature of the work changing you.
I have mixed feelings... does the US know that many big cities in developping countries have better subways (automated, brand new, clean, without pee smell, ?).
Officials should at least be motivated to fix the minimum: like digital display in wagons displaying the right stations... ;)
>I have mixed feelings... does the US know that many big cities in developping countries have better subways (automated, brand new, clean, without pee smell, ?).
Yes, but those countries also believe in public works.
You mean in offence and grabbing other countries resources at gun point. True.
But it's beside the point. It's not like you are a nation of "spartans" that spend all they money in "defence" and live in relative poorness.
More like a nation of couch potatoes, which has relegated their defence to paid specialists (like in feudal times), and which spends more on pet food, Netflix and similar BS than they do in public works and infrastructure. Especially in areas where poor and/or black are living.
Some stations. It depends on the line. Lines that haven't been updated to newer switch technology (like the A/C/E) still don't have it, and probably won't for quite a while.
More or less. I live near the most high tech subway in Brazil, yes it is clean, has no smell, the seats are comfy, it has doors that prevent people from falling on the tracks, and whatnot. But it still really, really suck
Want to know why? It is because it is missing a hundred year ( or more ) old feature: double rails. Thus there is no.express.line, it is slow, and every time something breaks, even if it is really small and.simple, it fucks up.the whole city because all.other trains must wait the track to clear.
And why it does.not have double rails but have all.the bells and whistles? Because the bells impress investors and stakeholder, and are cheaper than double rails.
Ok, NYC transit has something I need to point out that freaking owns:
Express trains.
All across the US, municipalities keep building annoying light-rail systems and basic commuter lines. They have one class of train: stop everywhere and waste your time.
What NYC has that I love is express trains on almost every line. Want to go from Penn Station straight to JFK airport? Easy. Want to go from uptown right down to Wall St.? There's a train for that.
Most cities - and nations - could learn a lot from NYC being able to handle such a diverse set of schedules.
Now if they could only do something about the rats...
What's amazing is that someone had the foresight to build the express lines a century ago. Honestly, every time I walk through GCT I'm proud to be a human and an engineer.
The foresight came from the invisible hand of capitalism. Remember the NYC subway started as two competing private companies. They each strived to offer the best service to compete with each other, which included building tracks for express service.
By contrast, modern-day government civil works projects serve political purposes first and foremost, with quality of service coming in somewhere lower on the list of considerations. Everybody's going to vote for a politician who brings transit to their neighborhood or business; nobody's going to flip that vote because the trains are slow.
No, the foresight came from the Board of Rapid Transit Railroad Commissioners, organized pursuant to statute, which specified the route and the design of the IRT Subway (what is now the 1/2/3 and 4/5/6) and bid out the contracts for its construction and operation. The construction was paid for by the city, which issued bonds to finance the construction. The Manhattan BRT lines were also built under such contracts. The lines were leased out to the IRT and the BRT (both of which were in large part formed for the purpose of executing these contracts) for operation at a contractually fixed fare.
So not quite the invisible hand. Today we'd call it a public private partnership, if we were feeling charitable, or maybe government-sponsored duopoly if we weren't. The closest modern analogy is probably the U.S. defense sector. The BRT and IRT were "competing" in the same way that Lockheed and Boeing "compete." The government figures out what to build, while private companies figure out how to build it, and the government foots the bill. I personally think it's an incredibly effective structure, but then again I think there is a place for oligopolies that are quasi-extensions of the government.
NYC's MTA is one of the only systems where you don't (usually) have to change platforms for the express train, too. For instance, if you're going uptown on the 6 (local), and are planning on going to Grand Central, if there's a 4/5 (express) across the platform, they'll usually hold the 4/5 for enough time to transfer. Most other systems you would have to completely change which platform.
And then there's the rush hour based skip-stop service on the J/Z. The elevated J/M/Z line in Brooklyn has three tracks part of the route. In the morning, an express train uses it to go into Manhattan. In the evening, an express train uses it to go to Brooklyn. Great flexibility for a line that's used almost primarily for getting from the outer borough in to Manhattan.
As for the rats .... if only they'd enclose the platforms (so edible debris didn't end up swamping the tracks), it'd go a long, long way. And also cut down on passengers being struck by trains after falling/being pushed on to the tracks.
A lot of Japanese transit stations have been enclosed now. The problem tends to be placement of the trains, especially with varying consists with different door placements.
That said, with the newer subway cars coming online locked into specific trains, they could start to do this.
The "stop everywhere and waste your time" is called S-Bahn in Germany. The Express options mostly connect larger quarters or cities and range from the already quite fast (meaning: get you from one to the other in a few minutes) R and RE trains to the faster and city-connecting-only IC and EC up to the big-cities-connecting ICE. For the "very regional", you have your standard subways (U-Bahn) and Trams (Straßenbahn).
I love german trains too. Their systems are quite awesome at what they do.
What I don't like in the US is the "Hey, we built light rail!" and then not providing a layer of systems that actually provide the right types of speed/stop mix.
Germany has that, through several different networks, in the same region/metro area.
52 comments
[ 3.1 ms ] story [ 108 ms ] thread20 minutes saved in a round-trip, times 250 days a year, times 160,000 people is 800,000,000 man-minutes, or ~13,000,000 man-hours a year. With an average NYC income of $20/hour, and time being worth a third of hourly income... that's $87,000,000 of life saved, per year. At 8.4 billion dollars for the construction, that does look bleak.
If you bump up the commuter's average wage to ~$50/hour, though, we'd be looking at ~220,000,000 of life saved, per year.
However, that's the lower bound on the public benefit of the project. Some of the costs will be paid through user fees. Others through economic development among the areas served by the line. As far as ditch-digging projects go, this one's probably on par for public ROI.
If we did nothing but count coppers, America would never have built the Interstates.
If you only factor in salary.
How about the improvement in their quality of life?
It's not like everything has to be justified by it's effects on businesses.
People work as many hours as workforce pressure, norms and laws have them too. If they could get the same salary working for 5 hours a day, they would, and if they could get by, pay for food and rent and stuff for less salary and/or without working they would to. (I mean that for the huge masses, whose jobs don't "define" them -- not for the (far fewer) geek coders, artists, workaholics, etc.).
So I don't think you can put a value on "free time". This only tells you how much people are payed for the hours they are forced to put in to work. It doesn't automatically mean that we can assume their free hours are worth as much.
Not to mention: is an hour of free time for a top lawyer (which makes $1000 per hour) worth more than an hour of free time for a McDonald's employee? Does that also mean their lives are not worth the same?
You also can put in gains that those not taking the subway will get from this. 160,000 fewer people on buses and in cars means faster traffic above ground.
Finally, they will simply pay for it from taxation. I know it sounds stupid to some, but IMO, that is the right thing to do. It is just extra costs that have to be made to make new high rise buildings commercially viable.
A more realistic estimate would be 80% or so (you lose 10 hours (8 hours at work + 2 hours travel) of your live in exchange for the money you get)
It would also reduce crowding on the subway lines that run between Penn Station and the East Side, like the E train.
Another way to look at it: NYC issues municipal bonds at 3-5%. Let's say 4.5%. People pay an NYC income tax of 4%, precisely for services like this. Assuming 75k average income for those riders, NYC is collecting about $500m in city income taxes per year from those riders. Interest on $8 billion of bonds is $360m per year. Over 50 years, that income tax revenue is going to increase exponentially, while those interest payments will only increase as interest rates vary (will probably stay within a factor of 2).
But this project is specifically for the LIRR.
Also the line's route is questionably useful to the locals. Somewhere someone is filling his pockets with an evil grin.
Unfortunately, the line's route is definitely useful to the locals.
It's called the 2nd avenue line :/
Yes, but those countries also believe in public works.
But it's beside the point. It's not like you are a nation of "spartans" that spend all they money in "defence" and live in relative poorness.
More like a nation of couch potatoes, which has relegated their defence to paid specialists (like in feudal times), and which spends more on pet food, Netflix and similar BS than they do in public works and infrastructure. Especially in areas where poor and/or black are living.
The trash strewn tracks are worth a look, while the total lack of electronic signage as to when the next train is like stepping back in time 40 years.
NYC has this in most stations now.
Want to know why? It is because it is missing a hundred year ( or more ) old feature: double rails. Thus there is no.express.line, it is slow, and every time something breaks, even if it is really small and.simple, it fucks up.the whole city because all.other trains must wait the track to clear.
And why it does.not have double rails but have all.the bells and whistles? Because the bells impress investors and stakeholder, and are cheaper than double rails.
Express trains.
All across the US, municipalities keep building annoying light-rail systems and basic commuter lines. They have one class of train: stop everywhere and waste your time.
What NYC has that I love is express trains on almost every line. Want to go from Penn Station straight to JFK airport? Easy. Want to go from uptown right down to Wall St.? There's a train for that.
Most cities - and nations - could learn a lot from NYC being able to handle such a diverse set of schedules.
Now if they could only do something about the rats...
By contrast, modern-day government civil works projects serve political purposes first and foremost, with quality of service coming in somewhere lower on the list of considerations. Everybody's going to vote for a politician who brings transit to their neighborhood or business; nobody's going to flip that vote because the trains are slow.
So not quite the invisible hand. Today we'd call it a public private partnership, if we were feeling charitable, or maybe government-sponsored duopoly if we weren't. The closest modern analogy is probably the U.S. defense sector. The BRT and IRT were "competing" in the same way that Lockheed and Boeing "compete." The government figures out what to build, while private companies figure out how to build it, and the government foots the bill. I personally think it's an incredibly effective structure, but then again I think there is a place for oligopolies that are quasi-extensions of the government.
And then there's the rush hour based skip-stop service on the J/Z. The elevated J/M/Z line in Brooklyn has three tracks part of the route. In the morning, an express train uses it to go into Manhattan. In the evening, an express train uses it to go to Brooklyn. Great flexibility for a line that's used almost primarily for getting from the outer borough in to Manhattan.
As for the rats .... if only they'd enclose the platforms (so edible debris didn't end up swamping the tracks), it'd go a long, long way. And also cut down on passengers being struck by trains after falling/being pushed on to the tracks.
That said, with the newer subway cars coming online locked into specific trains, they could start to do this.
The "stop everywhere and waste your time" is called S-Bahn in Germany. The Express options mostly connect larger quarters or cities and range from the already quite fast (meaning: get you from one to the other in a few minutes) R and RE trains to the faster and city-connecting-only IC and EC up to the big-cities-connecting ICE. For the "very regional", you have your standard subways (U-Bahn) and Trams (Straßenbahn).
I like our trains.
What I don't like in the US is the "Hey, we built light rail!" and then not providing a layer of systems that actually provide the right types of speed/stop mix.
Germany has that, through several different networks, in the same region/metro area.