Ask HN: How to estimate purchase price of an expiring domain?

I am looking to get a domain that expires in December. The domain in question has appeal only really to people who have the same first initial and last name name as me. The .io is not taken, the .{net,org,com} all are taken but expire soon and haven't been updated lately (since 2009)leading me to believe that they will not renew.

Many sites exist to appraise domains: www.{valuate,estibot}.com lists the domain as "worth" $1,200.

These appraisals do not seem to be the value in terms of purchasing a domain that seems only useful as a personal site. While I have a popular last name and first initial if I don't get the domain I won't be overly disappointed as I can still get the .io.

I know there are some statistical approaches for estimating a domain value, but they require data on "similar" sites, ie real estate: http://www.domainmart.com/news/Statistical_Models_for_Market_Approach_to_Domain_Name_Value.pdf

As I am only looking at evaluating the purchase price of a single domain, I would like a simple way of estimating a purchase price that I can scale by a bayesian probability of my "satisfaction" with having the domain vs cost.

Any input would be cool.