Also, assume they don't determine anything useful, but that schools have been magically fooled into thinking they do: what part of the conclusion to this essay changes?
1) IQ tests are also standardized tests. If they are somehow beyond question, why do schools just not use IQ tests?
2) Nothing. I just doubt that schools have actually been magically fooled into thinking they do: They actually get to do the regression analysis, and see that past grades are a better predictor than standardized tests. This has been well known for a long time. If applicants have been fooled, however, it allows the school to get useful effects from the test (even if the effect isn't predicting future performance).
I don't think they're beyond question. Certainly, there's room for improvement (the cutoffs are too low. A physics PhD program isn't really interested in a test that has no measurement value for IQs over 120, or wherever it is -- and the analogy section was pretty g-loaded, so it's a shame that's been removed from the SAT, too). And schools don't just rely on standardized tests; they'll look at outside achievements, school grades, and maybe essays -- a competitive program might want people in the top 5% of intelligence, determination, and charisma -- which still means their students' academic test scores will need to be in the top 5%.
2) That holds true for studying results within schools, but not for test results overall. This is because schools admit people with roughly the same ability -- so they might have one person with test scores .5 stdev below the mean, but with a really brilliant essay. Fortunately, you don't have to take my word for it -- just look at the dropout rate among people who are admitted despite lower test scores and lower grades: http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?id=1635
Which by the way predicts that the average IQ of Ethiopia is 63. Note that an IQ of 70 is considered mentally retarded. Anyone see a problem with this?
Edit: my point is that it's absurd, and the study is nonesense!
It is wrong. It is funny how much the descending list of IQs corresponds to the economic freedom of a society.
It is known that IQs are culturally biased. Residents of Zimbabwe and Equatorial Guinea aren't functionally retarded but they aren't good at taking IQ tests and they happen to live in a society where it is impossible to generate wealth because of insane autocrats.
I'm not sure the correlation works that way. Wouldn't you expect a smarter society to, uh, trust people to make their decisions rather than leave it up to insane autocrats?
It's also known that non-biased tests, like remembering a sequence of numbers and reciting it backwards, exhibit the same differences in scores.
Why would a brilliant autocrat decide to trust the people's decisions?
The political and economic freedom of Western Europe and its friends is
substantially the result of historical accident -- as is the poor state of
Africa. Many of the post-colonial nations experienced autocratic catastrophe,
seemingly in proportion to the degree in which industrialism was a jump for
them.
If you want tell me what ethnic group you are descended from, I would be happy
to tell you how stupid you are based on some unhappy incident in your people's
history. I, for one, have a lot of German in me. Are Germans smart for their
rockets or dumb for their Fuhrer?
" Many of the post-colonial nations experienced autocratic catastrophe, seemingly in proportion to the degree in which industrialism was a jump for them."
False. China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, North India? You need more explanatory variables, here. Especially given that their average income mostly declined after the colonial era. I'm sure these countries would have been better off with a stronger tradition of the rule of law, but I don't know that there's a sensible argument for saying that colonies suffered, and Europe benefited, from colonizing (did any European country make a net profit on their colonies?)
"If you want tell me what ethnic group you are descended from, I would be happy to tell you how stupid you are based on some unhappy incident in your people's history."
You misunderstood me. I'm talking about what you'd expect of groups, which obviously average in a lot of ordinary and a few extraordinary people. Why are you trying to make this personal? Why would I feel smart or dumb for being part of a given group? If I know that most people of my ethnicity and gender are half a foot shorter than I am, does that make me any less tall?
Neither China, nor Japan, nor South Korea, nor Singapore were colonized by any western power. (Singapore, or for that matter, Hong Kong do not count, since they were tiny fishing villages before the British moved in.)
Furthermore, the colonial influence was restricted, in the case of the larger nations, largely to the control of trade (mostly, Opium).
The colonization of Northern India was fraught with centuries of oppressive rule, rebellion, civil war, an eventual overthrow, and then a massive schism and religious conflict. Millions died. India was the crown jewel of the British empire for much of it's history, and brought massive profits to, if not the empire that large, than certainly the merchants running the show.
China was decimated, first by the Taiping rebellion (in part instigated by Christian missionaries), then by the Opium trade, then by Japanese imperial ambitions (which, I may remind you, were completely non-existent until the USA force open the ports of Japan), then by the civil war, then by the Maoists and the ill-conceived and executed model of western modernization. China has been the manufacturing center of the world for decades now, benefiting, largely, so called first-world nations such as ours and as a result the population is suffering the consequences of a terribly polluted land.
The leadership of Japan lead it into world war 2, and millions of it's people died because of it. In the era immediately preceding the opening of Japan to trade, it was one of the most peaceful countries in the world, having no major external conflicts, and no major civil wars since the Sengoku period.
I don't see why your examples imply that jsnx is false. On the balance they seem to support the statement, and it wasn't claimed that all or even most of them would, simply many.
Industrialism was less of a jump for China and Japan (and maybe the other
places you mention -- I am not too familiar with their history) because they
already had regimented work, national markets, centralized governments, &c.
> > I would be happy to tell you how stupid you are based
> > on some unhappy incident in your people's history.
> You misunderstood me...
My point is, many of the "smart" peoples of the world were embroiled, not too
long ago, in the pleasures of fascism. Consider also the Chinese -- they are
smarter than all of us. What kind of government have they got? Not one
characterized by its trust of the people...
I'm saying it's completely bonkers. Are you kidding me? an average IQ of 63? you're talking about a kind of person who needs constant supervision and can barely dress himself. A far FAR more reasonable explanation is that Ethiopia is poor because of political instability, not low IQ.
Note, I'm not saying IQ is a bad measure. In fact from what I've seen, IQ is probably the best measure of ability we have (it's not a coincidence that the average nobel nobel laureate has an IQ of 140.) It correlates nicely with a lot of things you would expect. Although it's still far from a perfect measure.
Anyway, I'm saying the study in that wikipedia article is nonesense on the face of it.
Well, yeah. I mean, if you were to ask me before I'd heard about the IQ thing, I would have said the same. But new data caused me to reexamine my old assumptions -- why doesn't that work with everyone?
An IQ that low doesn't imply what you think it does. It makes it hard for someone to handle life in a highly regimented society, where not knowing the difference between "Walk" and "Don't Walk" will get you killed in a week. But a person with an IQ of 50 will end up with the intelligence of a nine-year-old, and under some circumstances, you could expect a nine-year-old to, say, dress himself and forage for food.
where's that signal to noise essay from pg? I've always viewed standardized tests as a way to approximate intelligence, but they aren't very good ones at that. A search will show a lot of discussions about why.
It's pretty silly to use scores that are partially determined by a given input to prove that some people have that input.
It's circular causality at best and blatant deception at worst.
Bleh, so what. This guy claims to have measured something, but who knows if it's even interesting. At the end of the article, do you even understand what the point in reading it was?
I think what is interesting is tagging the article as "politically incorrect." I really hate this term. It forces people to think, "If I don't agree, or find this offensive, I'm small minded."
What makes this particular article reek of crackpotdom is that it offers no references to any other pertinent articles, yet it acts as if it is "scientific" you know, with all that math.
I hate the term 'politically correct', but you've got to admit that it drew more viewers (and votes) than some other adjectives I could use. And if you don't tag something like that, people whine.
Agreed on all points. The whole "warning . . . politically incorrect" thing is not only lame, but smacks of a good ol' boy telling a ribald or xenophobic story to his buddies with a wink and a nod. Might as well have just said "We all get it, but you know how those chicks and minorities whine about every little thing . . . they just don't have any sense of humor."
Don't know what OP's intended tone was, but it certainly didn't come off well to me.
I apologize if it didn't come off well. What I wanted to avoid was a response like "That's racist!" I should probably ask doctors how they do that -- do they say something like "The racist disease, sickle-cell anemia, tends to strike people of African descent," or what?
I mean, the point of the article was that, given some data about tests, the correlation between tests and academic appointments, and some basic math, you can at least say "If a group is under-represented in the sciences, it is mostly because their test scores are low." Which means that either the test is inaccurate, and they're really underrepresented, or the test is accurate and they aren't. It's not about the research -- it's about showing where the prejudice has to be hiding if there's any prejudice to be found.
Hm, in one sentence he claims that the gap shows up in all tests across all cultures, but then he goes on talking only about SAT scores. Some citations would have been in order... I don't think the SAT thing is very interesting: presumably (or possibly, at least) it is still a culture thing that women are less interested in maths, which would explain the gap by the end of high school.
Several years ago I took some interest in the Bell Curve and IQ tests. The IQ test people also claim their tests are culture insensitive, but that is definitely not true. Just think about the following kind of test: show 10 kanji symbols on a page of the book and on the next page ask the reader to identify them. Clearly people familiar with kanji will have big advantage. That might sound constructed, but there were times when IQ testers concluded that people from primitive societies can't think in 3d because they would build a drawing of an abstract box as a 2d structure. That's so obviously a culture thing... Anyway, not refutations of IQ testing, but enough to let one be sceptical.
"I don't think the SAT thing is very interesting: presumably (or possibly, at least) it is still a culture thing that women are less interested in maths, which would explain the gap by the end of high school."
That could be it. But I'd actually be more worried about students who were just "less interested" than students who were interested and tried really hard.
"The IQ test people also claim their tests are culture insensitive, but that is definitely not true. Just think about the following kind of test: show 10 kanji symbols on a page of the book and on the next page ask the reader to identify them."
Actually, what IQ testers found was that the culturally insensitive tests exacerbate group differences. Unless there's something cultural in being able to remember a sequence of numbers and recite it in reverse, or to have high reaction time, or to remember the orientation of a set of geometric shapes.
I used to tutor junior high and high school kids in physics. In junior high, nearly all the top students were girls. For some reason, in high school, there was this huge switch -- suddenly, most of the girls weren't interested in physics or math. It was weird, but I suspect that it's largely a matter of social pressures.
Luckily, I've had no direct experience with this. I skipped high school.
Pretty well. I graduated in Computer Science and Physics with a first class honors degree, and the university medal (I was the top student), at 17.
I then went into Princeton to start a PhD in plasma physics -- I did that for two years but that's on hold now -- I'm starting a startup, as I guess is the ambition of many of us here.
Socially, I've always been fairly mature for my age. I got along better with college students than my age peers. It was a very good move. I hated school.
There is definitely something cultural to being able to remember sequences of numbers in reverse: I am sure societies that don't have a concept of numbers would have a much harder time with it... As for the geometric shapes, remember the example of the africans building 2d models of the 3d drawing. It seems likely that there is a cultural component to seeing abstract shapes. The Kanji example was perhaps bad - OK, think about recognising kaukasian and chinese faces. They are just faces, no? But somehow it is hard for many kaukasians to tell chinese people apart, and presumably vice versa. I don't think that is genetic, it is trained. It makes me think twice about the cultural aspects of recognising "geometric shapes".
For completeness I want to mention that I don't doubt that IQ tests measure something. Like if they predict success in the military or whatever, they are probably right, ie the IQ63 guy from Ethopia (from another post) would probably have a much harder time in the US military than the IQ 100 American. It is just not clear that it measures "intelligence" per se. And perhaps for the Ethopian military, the results would be reversed. Ie try putting up "surviving in the Saharah without water" as an IQ test.
The article is bullshit. I didn't read anything after the quote "On all standardized exams, including IQ tests, men score higher than women on mathematical reasoning sections."
That's simply not true. Women are known to score higher (and have since the 60's) on tests of calculation, which is just one example.
To have such a sweeping fallacy stated as a general truth betrays a disgustingly prejudiced intent.
There are volumes more wrong with the whole essay, but really it's not worth my time. If you take any particular statement there, and dig a little deeper, you'll be sickened by what comes out.
"Women are known to score higher (and have since the 60's) on tests of calculation, which is just one example."
That's true. Usually, the breakdown is that women are much better at arithmetic and the like, but men are much better at more abstract problems. Which is going to make someone a better EE professor?
Well, we weren't talking about EE professors. But, if we were, we're talking about the top 1% of quantitative ability, in which case there's barely any statistical validity in what is written there at all.
Here's a good piece of data. The Center for Talented Youth at Johns Hopkins has been testing youth (~12 years old) across the country since 1972. One of the first things that they noticed was that of the students scoring above 700 on the math SAT, boys outnumbered girls 13 to 1. Okay, wow.
They have, of course, run the tests every year since then, and now it's down to a 3:1 ratio. This indicates a very, very strong cultural variable. The fact that this isn't even mentioned, again, betrays bias.
I hadn't heard about that. I imagine it may be cultural, but again, note that the SAT's ability to measure top scorers has been dampened. As far as I know, standard deviation is more significant than absolute difference in the men/women IQ debate. Men swamp women at the high ends because there are more male geniuses and male morons.
The thing is that intelligence isn't some kind of nice, statistically normed quantity. There's more to most variables than a mean and a standard deviation -- so I don't know why people seem to always think that you can restrict a discussion of intelligence to such concepts.
One thing that is actually correct is that there's more variation in gene expression between men and women. On of the reasons for this is because, chromosomally, women have two X chromosomes, which pair up, and then randomly one or another turns off. These means that the gene expression is mixed between both parents.
On the other hand, the Y chromosome is largely only effective at turning off gene expression. You can see how there's less redundancy here.
But intelligence isn't a gene. Researchers have, since the time of Dalton, tried to find a simple, biological basis for genius. You know, memory capacity, reaction times, brain size, brain structure convolution, etc. They haven't found anything -- literally everything has turned out to be a false start, even brain size, which, has been shown, within families does not even predict g.
In the mid ranges, there are greater standard deviations, yes. But every single normed test is normed on a sample on the order of 1000. They're designed for regular people. The designer of the Weschler has adamantly opposed the use of IQ tests for anything other than clinical settings, for this reason. It's just no good at drawing conclusions on the extremes of ability.
A better guide might be actual performance. The IOI this year had more girls than ever before -- 11. That's nearly 300% more than last year, where they had 4, and one medal. They are:
Emina Bukva (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Constanza Contreras (Chile)
Anna Currel (Spain)
Romina Huenchunao (Chile)
Vaiva Imbrasaite (Lithuania)
Taksapaun Kittiakrastien (Thailand) [Silver]
Sepideh Mahabadi (Iran) [Gold!]
Radwa Metwali (Egypt)
Katie O'Mahony (Ireland)
Phitchaya Phothilimthana (Thailand) [Silver]
Ye Wang (USA) [Silver]
Sepideh Mahabadi had one of the best performances of anyone. If you're familiar with IOI scoring, only the top 1/12 are to get golds, and 2/12 to get silvers, thus 1 gold and 3 silvers out of 11 implies that they did at least as good as the boys, and in fact somewhat better.
Were the 'standard deviation' explanation correct they should have, instead, had 0.4 girls earning maybe 0.01 medals. It just doesn't work. Psychometrics are a non-science.
"But intelligence isn't a gene. Researchers have, since the time of Dalton, tried to find a simple, biological basis for genius. You know, memory capacity, reaction times, brain size, brain structure convolution, etc. They haven't found anything -- literally everything has turned out to be a false start, even brain size, which, has been shown, within families does not even predict g."
I hadn't heard that about brain size. The correlation I read about was 40%, over a number of studies. It would be interesting to know if this had been updated, since I know individual cases belie it. But that's a small sample size (like your IOI numbers -- 11 people in one year is extraordinary, unless it's an outlier).
But even if those numbers don't predict g, you're, uh, left explaining how g varies when what it's made up of doesn't vary. You're implying a correlation between any two intellectual activities (e.g. counting and calculus, or reading comprehension and analogies) of zero. Unless your sample size has five idiot savants for every Gauss, I just don't see how that's possible.
"Psychometrics are a non-science."
How do you account for the explanatory power of IQ, then? Is it a myth we've all bought into? Is it suggestion?
>How do you account for the explanatory power of IQ, then? Is it a myth we've all bought into? Is it suggestion?
The IQ test means a lot in the midrange in western cultures, but becomes completely worthless at the extremes. It's not so much that there is no scientific basis behind psychometrics as it is just the beginnings of a science. It's really hard to understand the brain, I'm hopeful that we or our AI overlords will get there eventually.
And Dani: I have no doubt there is a genetic basis for intelligence, we just haven't figured it out yet. Clearly it is a whole lot more complicated than a single genetic mutation. This one gene has an influence on signaling pathways in the brain which has an indirect influence on intelligence. http://www.physorg.com/news91799494.html
Also see the disproportionate number of Chess Grandmasters and Science Nobel Prize winners among Eastern European Jews.
Yes, I agree with you there. It's just there are constantly pronouncements that something or another has been found, and the true story always seems to be that it makes no real difference. Certainly there must be a genetic basis, I just have real doubts that the standard explanations of genetic variation can actually account for it. I mean, say, hypothetically, that it took 15 genes to produce genius. Then the lack of redundancy and higher variability on the male genotype would be a hindrance, not an advantage.
"...see the disproportionate number of Chess Grandmasters and Science Nobel Prize winners among Eastern European Jews."
If you plot said statistic over time, even taking the Jewish population versus the rest of the world into account, you'll notice massive fluctuations. Anand just took #1, for example. I bet you'll see a lot more young Indian chess players. In different times you could say that the world's intellectual leaders were Sumerian, Babylonian, Indian, Chinese, Greek, Roman, Mayan, Arab, Milanese, Viking, Khmer, Maori, Catholic, Protestant, Lutheran, Jewish, Russian, or American. Don't forget that the Nobel prize committee are themselves Nobel prize winners, and they have not shown themselves to be free of bias (They didn't award Rosalind Franklin, nor Emmy Noether, nor Freeman Dyson, and I'm sure, many, many others). I also think that the selection of Chess and Scientific Nobel prizes is clearly occidental. Why not Go (Japanese/Korean) and Tang (Chinese) era scientific achievements? Why not programming competition performance (Poland and Russia seem to be leading) or memorization of oral history (The Tibetans seem to be quite remarkable in this respect).
Or for that matter, the first masters of Astronomy (Babylon, Mayan) or masters of the Mesoamerican ballgame (Mayan, Aztec)?
"I mean, say, hypothetically, that it took 15 genes to produce genius. Then the lack of redundancy and higher variability on the male genotype would be a hindrance, not an advantage."
Not exactly. It would be more random, but depending on how mating worked out, you might just expect the genius to have more kids. In a monogamous society with a strong welfare system, that's not how things would work -- but if your genius 1) doesn't have to pay taxes, and 2) can have as many wives as he wants, he's probably going to be very rich and have an absurd number of kids, some of whom will have the magic 15 genes.
"I bet you'll see a lot more young Indian chess players."
Out of a much, much bigger sample? As a percentage of population, Ashkenazim dominate.
"memorization of oral history (The Tibetans seem to be quite remarkable in this respect)."
Are they as good as people in the Balkans? Or Aborigines? Or North Indian bards? Oral history is a different game -- as long as you don't teach someone how to read, they can remember phenomenal amounts (Robert Fagles wrote a bit about this in his intro to The Oddyssey. I don't know that anyone has done research on which groups are best at it).
"Or for that matter, the first masters of Astronomy (Babylon, Mayan) "
It's known, among people who study this, that Ashkenazim are average in astronomy. It's also known that astronomy requires disproportionately high visiospatial IQ, and that Ashkenazim are average.
"It's just there are constantly pronouncements that something or another has been found, and the true story always seems to be that it makes no real difference."
I wish there was more research, too! It's a little unfortunate that the most open-minded people in this field are the bigots. In economics, or math, or physics, people say "That's wrong! Check your data! Your reasoning is flawed!" In psychometrics, people say "You can't say that!"
Depending on the amount of gene expression you actually need, you might get an absolutely higher percentage of females at the highest level of ability, or vice versa. It is model dependent. That was my point.
"...Indian chess players"
The population size doesn't matter nearly so much. What might matter is the population size of interested players. The point is that this is highly culture specific. On TopCoder, per capita, Norway, Croatia, Slovakia, and Poland seem to lead the way in terms of top competitors, and, as we know, tragically, the Jewish population there had been reduced to near non-existence. I don't know why programming competitions are a big deal there, but they are.
In most of the united states, African Americans perform worse than average in most tests of academic achievement. Yet, in New Jersey, Joyce Kilmer middle school in Trenton, has continually fielded one of the top teams. I saw them when they won in 2006, and they were incredible. Say what you want about sample size, but what I've taken from this is that with a good teacher, and inspiration, a team can rise to the occasion and even beat the kids of Princeton professors, despite otherwise being handed a second class public education.
Are average? Huh? What a crazy pronouncement. It's not 'known' that astronomy requires any kind of extreme visual ability -- for most of it's history it's involved more bookkeeping than looking at pretty pictures. I don't know what the historical precident was to make Mayans and Babylonians look up in the sky, and eventually develop mathematics to predict solar phenomena, but they did. I think it's a heck of a lot more random than you seem to be implying.
If you were born 300 years ago would you still be a hacker?
"...I wish..."
I wish there was less wasted effort going into measuring something we don't understand, and more energy put into an actual understanding of intelligence. We are further back here than we are in AI. We don't merely have a theory that's incorrect. We don't even have a theory. We're stuck in the local maximum, and I really don't think there's any way to move forward if people keep approaching it in the same way, over and over.
People make these unqualified, absurd statements and they really have no idea what kind of damage they do. I've been studying these things for years, and so I'm in a much stronger place than most. But I know for a fact that if I was told that I couldn't do something because of my genetic makeup, it would have taken a lot of work to get over that. You know what the worst thing is? Most of, if not all of it, is complete baloney.
People see to think that as long as they can measure something in the social sciences, they can publish it, and draw conclusions. Well, the bar is way, way higher in physics, and as far as we're aware, particles don't base life decisions on whether or not our model represents them as different from what they are. Scientists should, and do, take extreme caution when they start to say anything about race, and the few that do not should be called out on it.
(That said, having actually read them, I'd be totally okay with Lawrence Summer's comments were he not the president of Harvard. He should have known people would blow things out of proportion. But "The Bell Curve" is totally fraudulent).
You can't discount that IOI statistic becuase it's an outlier. Every single participant at the IOI is an outlier in cognitive ability. Do you know about the theory of outliers?
There's this thing called the central limit theorem. It says that if you have a lot of small independent variables, randomly assigned some value, then the mean of all these variables (or, by the same token, the sum of the variables) is distributed approximately normally. But suppose the variables are not small, or they're not independent. Then the central limit theorem doesn't hold, and what you have, almost all of the time, is an outlier -- that's why there are often many more outliers than you'd predict in a given population, using a small sample.
Now, I'm not saying that g is zero. I said that psychometrics is a non-science, in the same sense that a lot of the social sciences are non-sciences (you can find papers which try to show a causal effect of insurance regulation on premium prices, ignoring profits entirely, for example).
The fact that g is non-zero can be readily explained by the following simple observation -- most academic subtests, including IQ's, rely on skills that are either practiced as a group, or on skills that are shared between subtests. One example is focus, in general. Another is visualisation. Another is working memory. And so on and so on.
Many of these skills are also practiced in situations, like school, where if one does well in one area, they do well in another. If you're the teacher's pet, you get more attention. If you're known as the bad kid, you're immediately discounted (and I've been on both sides). If you're poisoned against a learning environment, you just won't put any effort in.
So it's no mystery to me that g is non-zero. The point is that the field of psychometrics is totally absent of content. There's no objective test for the validity of a test, for example -- the best they have is g-loading. Over the years, this means that tests have become higher and higher g-loaded. Now this could mean that the tests are getting better, or it could be that the subtests only look different, they are becoming more similar in content.
I've been studying these tests, the actual tests, since I was twelve. It didn't take long before I figured out how poor they were at answering research questions, or questions of individual ability. If you get the chance, try to look up the history of the Stanford-Binet, or Terman's kids, or actually take a look at the scoring method behind most of these things. They're totally full of crap...
Also, notwithstanding the fact that this is a tech/science/math forum, whos to say that aptitude in math/science is a more equivalent measure of intelligence than it's antithesis e.g. art,juggling talent, etc
I know a few smart women. Even if there are important statistical differences between men and women in the way of analytical ability, we still have to take individual men and women on their own merits.
It's too bad that colleges are unfairly admitting sub-par women, but then again, that's probably not as bad a thing as admitting all those god damn business majors...
I'm not particularly impressed by the research but, then again, I'm black . . . I'm probably not bright enough to understand all this "basic calculus" and other "smart" talk.
Well, the distribution of asian SAT scores looks vaguely bimodal, so let's validate our preconceived notions by arbitrarily stuffing two gaussians inside. Very methodical.
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[ 3.2 ms ] story [ 136 ms ] threadI suspect everyone can see where that's going.
Also, assume they don't determine anything useful, but that schools have been magically fooled into thinking they do: what part of the conclusion to this essay changes?
2) Nothing. I just doubt that schools have actually been magically fooled into thinking they do: They actually get to do the regression analysis, and see that past grades are a better predictor than standardized tests. This has been well known for a long time. If applicants have been fooled, however, it allows the school to get useful effects from the test (even if the effect isn't predicting future performance).
2) That holds true for studying results within schools, but not for test results overall. This is because schools admit people with roughly the same ability -- so they might have one person with test scores .5 stdev below the mean, but with a really brilliant essay. Fortunately, you don't have to take my word for it -- just look at the dropout rate among people who are admitted despite lower test scores and lower grades: http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?id=1635
Which by the way predicts that the average IQ of Ethiopia is 63. Note that an IQ of 70 is considered mentally retarded. Anyone see a problem with this?
Edit: my point is that it's absurd, and the study is nonesense!
It is known that IQs are culturally biased. Residents of Zimbabwe and Equatorial Guinea aren't functionally retarded but they aren't good at taking IQ tests and they happen to live in a society where it is impossible to generate wealth because of insane autocrats.
It's also known that non-biased tests, like remembering a sequence of numbers and reciting it backwards, exhibit the same differences in scores.
The political and economic freedom of Western Europe and its friends is substantially the result of historical accident -- as is the poor state of Africa. Many of the post-colonial nations experienced autocratic catastrophe, seemingly in proportion to the degree in which industrialism was a jump for them.
If you want tell me what ethnic group you are descended from, I would be happy to tell you how stupid you are based on some unhappy incident in your people's history. I, for one, have a lot of German in me. Are Germans smart for their rockets or dumb for their Fuhrer?
http://unqualified-reservations.blogspot.com/2007/05/magic-o...
" Many of the post-colonial nations experienced autocratic catastrophe, seemingly in proportion to the degree in which industrialism was a jump for them."
False. China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, North India? You need more explanatory variables, here. Especially given that their average income mostly declined after the colonial era. I'm sure these countries would have been better off with a stronger tradition of the rule of law, but I don't know that there's a sensible argument for saying that colonies suffered, and Europe benefited, from colonizing (did any European country make a net profit on their colonies?)
"If you want tell me what ethnic group you are descended from, I would be happy to tell you how stupid you are based on some unhappy incident in your people's history."
You misunderstood me. I'm talking about what you'd expect of groups, which obviously average in a lot of ordinary and a few extraordinary people. Why are you trying to make this personal? Why would I feel smart or dumb for being part of a given group? If I know that most people of my ethnicity and gender are half a foot shorter than I am, does that make me any less tall?
Furthermore, the colonial influence was restricted, in the case of the larger nations, largely to the control of trade (mostly, Opium).
The colonization of Northern India was fraught with centuries of oppressive rule, rebellion, civil war, an eventual overthrow, and then a massive schism and religious conflict. Millions died. India was the crown jewel of the British empire for much of it's history, and brought massive profits to, if not the empire that large, than certainly the merchants running the show.
China was decimated, first by the Taiping rebellion (in part instigated by Christian missionaries), then by the Opium trade, then by Japanese imperial ambitions (which, I may remind you, were completely non-existent until the USA force open the ports of Japan), then by the civil war, then by the Maoists and the ill-conceived and executed model of western modernization. China has been the manufacturing center of the world for decades now, benefiting, largely, so called first-world nations such as ours and as a result the population is suffering the consequences of a terribly polluted land.
The leadership of Japan lead it into world war 2, and millions of it's people died because of it. In the era immediately preceding the opening of Japan to trade, it was one of the most peaceful countries in the world, having no major external conflicts, and no major civil wars since the Sengoku period.
I don't see why your examples imply that jsnx is false. On the balance they seem to support the statement, and it wasn't claimed that all or even most of them would, simply many.
> > I would be happy to tell you how stupid you are based > > on some unhappy incident in your people's history. > You misunderstood me...
My point is, many of the "smart" peoples of the world were embroiled, not too long ago, in the pleasures of fascism. Consider also the Chinese -- they are smarter than all of us. What kind of government have they got? Not one characterized by its trust of the people...
The most notorious insane autocrat of recent times appeared in the country with arguably the most impressive intellectual tradition.
Note, I'm not saying IQ is a bad measure. In fact from what I've seen, IQ is probably the best measure of ability we have (it's not a coincidence that the average nobel nobel laureate has an IQ of 140.) It correlates nicely with a lot of things you would expect. Although it's still far from a perfect measure.
Anyway, I'm saying the study in that wikipedia article is nonesense on the face of it.
An IQ that low doesn't imply what you think it does. It makes it hard for someone to handle life in a highly regimented society, where not knowing the difference between "Walk" and "Don't Walk" will get you killed in a week. But a person with an IQ of 50 will end up with the intelligence of a nine-year-old, and under some circumstances, you could expect a nine-year-old to, say, dress himself and forage for food.
It's pretty silly to use scores that are partially determined by a given input to prove that some people have that input.
It's circular causality at best and blatant deception at worst.
I think what is interesting is tagging the article as "politically incorrect." I really hate this term. It forces people to think, "If I don't agree, or find this offensive, I'm small minded."
What makes this particular article reek of crackpotdom is that it offers no references to any other pertinent articles, yet it acts as if it is "scientific" you know, with all that math.
Don't bother reading this thing.
Don't know what OP's intended tone was, but it certainly didn't come off well to me.
I mean, the point of the article was that, given some data about tests, the correlation between tests and academic appointments, and some basic math, you can at least say "If a group is under-represented in the sciences, it is mostly because their test scores are low." Which means that either the test is inaccurate, and they're really underrepresented, or the test is accurate and they aren't. It's not about the research -- it's about showing where the prejudice has to be hiding if there's any prejudice to be found.
Several years ago I took some interest in the Bell Curve and IQ tests. The IQ test people also claim their tests are culture insensitive, but that is definitely not true. Just think about the following kind of test: show 10 kanji symbols on a page of the book and on the next page ask the reader to identify them. Clearly people familiar with kanji will have big advantage. That might sound constructed, but there were times when IQ testers concluded that people from primitive societies can't think in 3d because they would build a drawing of an abstract box as a 2d structure. That's so obviously a culture thing... Anyway, not refutations of IQ testing, but enough to let one be sceptical.
That could be it. But I'd actually be more worried about students who were just "less interested" than students who were interested and tried really hard.
"The IQ test people also claim their tests are culture insensitive, but that is definitely not true. Just think about the following kind of test: show 10 kanji symbols on a page of the book and on the next page ask the reader to identify them."
Actually, what IQ testers found was that the culturally insensitive tests exacerbate group differences. Unless there's something cultural in being able to remember a sequence of numbers and recite it in reverse, or to have high reaction time, or to remember the orientation of a set of geometric shapes.
Luckily, I've had no direct experience with this. I skipped high school.
I then went into Princeton to start a PhD in plasma physics -- I did that for two years but that's on hold now -- I'm starting a startup, as I guess is the ambition of many of us here.
Socially, I've always been fairly mature for my age. I got along better with college students than my age peers. It was a very good move. I hated school.
For completeness I want to mention that I don't doubt that IQ tests measure something. Like if they predict success in the military or whatever, they are probably right, ie the IQ63 guy from Ethopia (from another post) would probably have a much harder time in the US military than the IQ 100 American. It is just not clear that it measures "intelligence" per se. And perhaps for the Ethopian military, the results would be reversed. Ie try putting up "surviving in the Saharah without water" as an IQ test.
That's simply not true. Women are known to score higher (and have since the 60's) on tests of calculation, which is just one example.
To have such a sweeping fallacy stated as a general truth betrays a disgustingly prejudiced intent.
There are volumes more wrong with the whole essay, but really it's not worth my time. If you take any particular statement there, and dig a little deeper, you'll be sickened by what comes out.
That's true. Usually, the breakdown is that women are much better at arithmetic and the like, but men are much better at more abstract problems. Which is going to make someone a better EE professor?
Here's a good piece of data. The Center for Talented Youth at Johns Hopkins has been testing youth (~12 years old) across the country since 1972. One of the first things that they noticed was that of the students scoring above 700 on the math SAT, boys outnumbered girls 13 to 1. Okay, wow.
They have, of course, run the tests every year since then, and now it's down to a 3:1 ratio. This indicates a very, very strong cultural variable. The fact that this isn't even mentioned, again, betrays bias.
One thing that is actually correct is that there's more variation in gene expression between men and women. On of the reasons for this is because, chromosomally, women have two X chromosomes, which pair up, and then randomly one or another turns off. These means that the gene expression is mixed between both parents.
On the other hand, the Y chromosome is largely only effective at turning off gene expression. You can see how there's less redundancy here.
But intelligence isn't a gene. Researchers have, since the time of Dalton, tried to find a simple, biological basis for genius. You know, memory capacity, reaction times, brain size, brain structure convolution, etc. They haven't found anything -- literally everything has turned out to be a false start, even brain size, which, has been shown, within families does not even predict g.
In the mid ranges, there are greater standard deviations, yes. But every single normed test is normed on a sample on the order of 1000. They're designed for regular people. The designer of the Weschler has adamantly opposed the use of IQ tests for anything other than clinical settings, for this reason. It's just no good at drawing conclusions on the extremes of ability.
A better guide might be actual performance. The IOI this year had more girls than ever before -- 11. That's nearly 300% more than last year, where they had 4, and one medal. They are:
Emina Bukva (Bosnia and Herzegovina) Constanza Contreras (Chile) Anna Currel (Spain) Romina Huenchunao (Chile) Vaiva Imbrasaite (Lithuania) Taksapaun Kittiakrastien (Thailand) [Silver] Sepideh Mahabadi (Iran) [Gold!] Radwa Metwali (Egypt) Katie O'Mahony (Ireland) Phitchaya Phothilimthana (Thailand) [Silver] Ye Wang (USA) [Silver]
Sepideh Mahabadi had one of the best performances of anyone. If you're familiar with IOI scoring, only the top 1/12 are to get golds, and 2/12 to get silvers, thus 1 gold and 3 silvers out of 11 implies that they did at least as good as the boys, and in fact somewhat better.
Were the 'standard deviation' explanation correct they should have, instead, had 0.4 girls earning maybe 0.01 medals. It just doesn't work. Psychometrics are a non-science.
I hadn't heard that about brain size. The correlation I read about was 40%, over a number of studies. It would be interesting to know if this had been updated, since I know individual cases belie it. But that's a small sample size (like your IOI numbers -- 11 people in one year is extraordinary, unless it's an outlier).
But even if those numbers don't predict g, you're, uh, left explaining how g varies when what it's made up of doesn't vary. You're implying a correlation between any two intellectual activities (e.g. counting and calculus, or reading comprehension and analogies) of zero. Unless your sample size has five idiot savants for every Gauss, I just don't see how that's possible.
"Psychometrics are a non-science."
How do you account for the explanatory power of IQ, then? Is it a myth we've all bought into? Is it suggestion?
>How do you account for the explanatory power of IQ, then? Is it a myth we've all bought into? Is it suggestion?
The IQ test means a lot in the midrange in western cultures, but becomes completely worthless at the extremes. It's not so much that there is no scientific basis behind psychometrics as it is just the beginnings of a science. It's really hard to understand the brain, I'm hopeful that we or our AI overlords will get there eventually.
And Dani: I have no doubt there is a genetic basis for intelligence, we just haven't figured it out yet. Clearly it is a whole lot more complicated than a single genetic mutation. This one gene has an influence on signaling pathways in the brain which has an indirect influence on intelligence. http://www.physorg.com/news91799494.html
Also see the disproportionate number of Chess Grandmasters and Science Nobel Prize winners among Eastern European Jews.
Summary: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/03/science/03gene.html?_r=1&#...
Paper: http://homepage.mac.com/harpend/.Public/AshkenaziIQ.jbiosocs...
Yes, I agree with you there. It's just there are constantly pronouncements that something or another has been found, and the true story always seems to be that it makes no real difference. Certainly there must be a genetic basis, I just have real doubts that the standard explanations of genetic variation can actually account for it. I mean, say, hypothetically, that it took 15 genes to produce genius. Then the lack of redundancy and higher variability on the male genotype would be a hindrance, not an advantage.
"...see the disproportionate number of Chess Grandmasters and Science Nobel Prize winners among Eastern European Jews."
If you plot said statistic over time, even taking the Jewish population versus the rest of the world into account, you'll notice massive fluctuations. Anand just took #1, for example. I bet you'll see a lot more young Indian chess players. In different times you could say that the world's intellectual leaders were Sumerian, Babylonian, Indian, Chinese, Greek, Roman, Mayan, Arab, Milanese, Viking, Khmer, Maori, Catholic, Protestant, Lutheran, Jewish, Russian, or American. Don't forget that the Nobel prize committee are themselves Nobel prize winners, and they have not shown themselves to be free of bias (They didn't award Rosalind Franklin, nor Emmy Noether, nor Freeman Dyson, and I'm sure, many, many others). I also think that the selection of Chess and Scientific Nobel prizes is clearly occidental. Why not Go (Japanese/Korean) and Tang (Chinese) era scientific achievements? Why not programming competition performance (Poland and Russia seem to be leading) or memorization of oral history (The Tibetans seem to be quite remarkable in this respect).
Or for that matter, the first masters of Astronomy (Babylon, Mayan) or masters of the Mesoamerican ballgame (Mayan, Aztec)?
Not exactly. It would be more random, but depending on how mating worked out, you might just expect the genius to have more kids. In a monogamous society with a strong welfare system, that's not how things would work -- but if your genius 1) doesn't have to pay taxes, and 2) can have as many wives as he wants, he's probably going to be very rich and have an absurd number of kids, some of whom will have the magic 15 genes.
"I bet you'll see a lot more young Indian chess players."
Out of a much, much bigger sample? As a percentage of population, Ashkenazim dominate.
"memorization of oral history (The Tibetans seem to be quite remarkable in this respect)."
Are they as good as people in the Balkans? Or Aborigines? Or North Indian bards? Oral history is a different game -- as long as you don't teach someone how to read, they can remember phenomenal amounts (Robert Fagles wrote a bit about this in his intro to The Oddyssey. I don't know that anyone has done research on which groups are best at it).
"Or for that matter, the first masters of Astronomy (Babylon, Mayan) "
It's known, among people who study this, that Ashkenazim are average in astronomy. It's also known that astronomy requires disproportionately high visiospatial IQ, and that Ashkenazim are average.
"It's just there are constantly pronouncements that something or another has been found, and the true story always seems to be that it makes no real difference."
I wish there was more research, too! It's a little unfortunate that the most open-minded people in this field are the bigots. In economics, or math, or physics, people say "That's wrong! Check your data! Your reasoning is flawed!" In psychometrics, people say "You can't say that!"
Depending on the amount of gene expression you actually need, you might get an absolutely higher percentage of females at the highest level of ability, or vice versa. It is model dependent. That was my point.
"...Indian chess players"
The population size doesn't matter nearly so much. What might matter is the population size of interested players. The point is that this is highly culture specific. On TopCoder, per capita, Norway, Croatia, Slovakia, and Poland seem to lead the way in terms of top competitors, and, as we know, tragically, the Jewish population there had been reduced to near non-existence. I don't know why programming competitions are a big deal there, but they are.
In most of the united states, African Americans perform worse than average in most tests of academic achievement. Yet, in New Jersey, Joyce Kilmer middle school in Trenton, has continually fielded one of the top teams. I saw them when they won in 2006, and they were incredible. Say what you want about sample size, but what I've taken from this is that with a good teacher, and inspiration, a team can rise to the occasion and even beat the kids of Princeton professors, despite otherwise being handed a second class public education.
"...oral history."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epic_of_King_Gesar
That's pretty darned incredible, to me.
"...it's known..."
Are average? Huh? What a crazy pronouncement. It's not 'known' that astronomy requires any kind of extreme visual ability -- for most of it's history it's involved more bookkeeping than looking at pretty pictures. I don't know what the historical precident was to make Mayans and Babylonians look up in the sky, and eventually develop mathematics to predict solar phenomena, but they did. I think it's a heck of a lot more random than you seem to be implying.
If you were born 300 years ago would you still be a hacker?
"...I wish..."
I wish there was less wasted effort going into measuring something we don't understand, and more energy put into an actual understanding of intelligence. We are further back here than we are in AI. We don't merely have a theory that's incorrect. We don't even have a theory. We're stuck in the local maximum, and I really don't think there's any way to move forward if people keep approaching it in the same way, over and over.
People make these unqualified, absurd statements and they really have no idea what kind of damage they do. I've been studying these things for years, and so I'm in a much stronger place than most. But I know for a fact that if I was told that I couldn't do something because of my genetic makeup, it would have taken a lot of work to get over that. You know what the worst thing is? Most of, if not all of it, is complete baloney.
People see to think that as long as they can measure something in the social sciences, they can publish it, and draw conclusions. Well, the bar is way, way higher in physics, and as far as we're aware, particles don't base life decisions on whether or not our model represents them as different from what they are. Scientists should, and do, take extreme caution when they start to say anything about race, and the few that do not should be called out on it.
(That said, having actually read them, I'd be totally okay with Lawrence Summer's comments were he not the president of Harvard. He should have known people would blow things out of proportion. But "The Bell Curve" is totally fraudulent).
http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/97/9/4932
You can't discount that IOI statistic becuase it's an outlier. Every single participant at the IOI is an outlier in cognitive ability. Do you know about the theory of outliers?
There's this thing called the central limit theorem. It says that if you have a lot of small independent variables, randomly assigned some value, then the mean of all these variables (or, by the same token, the sum of the variables) is distributed approximately normally. But suppose the variables are not small, or they're not independent. Then the central limit theorem doesn't hold, and what you have, almost all of the time, is an outlier -- that's why there are often many more outliers than you'd predict in a given population, using a small sample.
Now, I'm not saying that g is zero. I said that psychometrics is a non-science, in the same sense that a lot of the social sciences are non-sciences (you can find papers which try to show a causal effect of insurance regulation on premium prices, ignoring profits entirely, for example).
The fact that g is non-zero can be readily explained by the following simple observation -- most academic subtests, including IQ's, rely on skills that are either practiced as a group, or on skills that are shared between subtests. One example is focus, in general. Another is visualisation. Another is working memory. And so on and so on.
Many of these skills are also practiced in situations, like school, where if one does well in one area, they do well in another. If you're the teacher's pet, you get more attention. If you're known as the bad kid, you're immediately discounted (and I've been on both sides). If you're poisoned against a learning environment, you just won't put any effort in.
So it's no mystery to me that g is non-zero. The point is that the field of psychometrics is totally absent of content. There's no objective test for the validity of a test, for example -- the best they have is g-loading. Over the years, this means that tests have become higher and higher g-loaded. Now this could mean that the tests are getting better, or it could be that the subtests only look different, they are becoming more similar in content.
I've been studying these tests, the actual tests, since I was twelve. It didn't take long before I figured out how poor they were at answering research questions, or questions of individual ability. If you get the chance, try to look up the history of the Stanford-Binet, or Terman's kids, or actually take a look at the scoring method behind most of these things. They're totally full of crap...
to remind yourself that you don't need to expend much effort on this issue :)
It's too bad that colleges are unfairly admitting sub-par women, but then again, that's probably not as bad a thing as admitting all those god damn business majors...