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Ask HN: Your Thoughts On The Present Bitcoin Rally?

10 points by cdvonstinkpot ↗ HN
Hi,

I remember recently seeing a poll on HN & seeing that many of us hold bitcoin, and I'm wondering what HN'ers opinions are on the recent bitcoin price rally.

I'm personally of the opinion that it's not going to be a bubble but rather a new normal in terms of a higher value in bitcoin overall. I have no idea where it's likely to level off however, and am enjoying watching my portfolio increase in value.

11 comments

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GeoffreyP
An interesting article a short while back framed bitcoin's value in terms of technical adoption. Still has me nodding my head, though more from an intuitive than intellectual standpoint.
dysbulic
I really like this chart http://i.imgur.com/GOYWUMo.png The bubbles and corrections really stand out.
stephenbez
Obviously something increasing in price by 10x each year is only sustainable for so long.
lfmb
Indeed.

But, do not be fooled and think that we seeing the last 10x cycle.

27182818284
A regression explaining only 84%? Isn't that pretty low?
dysbulic
Something that bitcoins have that gold doesn't is as their value increases, it encourages the adoption of infrastructure to exchange bitcoins for commodities. This increase of real world value figures into the exchange price.
charlesism
The rally was great until around yesterday. Now it's growing far too fast.

When we peak, it will be for 30 seconds at some arbitrarily insane high. If you intend to "cash out" at the peak, good luck.

And I'm far from anti-bitcoin. I own some btc, and also ltc. I'm optimistic about their long term future.

If you don't realize that we're in for a major correction soon (within days) I have to assume you're a bit inexperienced.

There are parallels between bitcoin and the early days of the web.

Believe me, it's not "different this time." It's always the same story.

The bubble will pop, even though, like the internet bubble, bitcoin has real potential, and won't disappear entirely.

I could see it losing perhaps half its value, before ramping up again next year.

I'd urge anyone thinking about buying bitcoin this weekend to hold off. Wait a couple days until the crash.

charlesism
...and the wait is over. An adjustment has started (although I doubt we'll see a full-fledged crash tonight), so far it's plummeted almost $100. On the bright side, it might buy a couple weeks of time, continued rallying, before the real crash.
Avalaxy
I think the price is increasing way too fast at the moment, but I'm 100% sure it will keep going up, and will do so for years. More and more people will want to buy them, but there's a max of only ~21 million of them. If you do the math, the real value of these things should be much much higer (assuming that everyone accepts it as a real currency of course, but more places accept it as a currency every day).

Edit: I own 2 BTC, bought them last week at €150/each. My investment of €300 was worth €550 this week, but it's mostly a long-term investment for me so I'll keep them.

pearjuice
I remember when it was a currency. Now, it is just something which is only viable for selling to the next guy in town; he is hoping he won't be the one buying before it pops and you selling hoping you won't be the one regretting it in a week. Unless it stabilizes and is not hoarded for the sake of selling at a higher value, Bitcoin will be a bubble.

Its value is changing too rapidly to properly use it as a currency.

lfmb
It is changing in the same pace as always.

See this log chart. http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

Right now it is rising, but soon enough it will stabilize for some time.

Happens every year, once or twice.

If you do some research, you will see that it is being used more than ever for purchases. You may think otherwise because of the media hype/bubble time that is happening now.