I suppose so, but this sort of problem is well understood by the insurance industry and that's why the "risk corridors" exist. Just a fancy name for a variation on standard reinsurance, how insurance companies themselves buy insurance: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinsurance
The government had to do this because no one could predict ahead of time what pools the insurance companies would end up with in 2014, except I'm sure the latter weren't as optimistic as the government.
The pudding here is that young healthy people will be footing the bill for other demographics. It's great how they tricked people into doing this. They young and stupid are vulnerable and will always be an easy target to pick on. Just like the military recruits them for pennies on the dollar, and sends them out into battle. If anyone should be skeptical of the government, it should be young people. In reality, the skeptics seem to be the middle age, who have witnessed over the years how the system works. The dilemma is that the middle age doesn't have the time to have a big voice, but the younger stupid demographic has so much free time to spout their non-wisdom to the rest of the world through the internet like I am doing right now.
I'm not sure the young are that stupid when it comes to dollars out of their pocket.
Penalties the IRS can charge for not signing up (to sites many found difficult or impossible to do so in the first place) are minimal this year, and get really big in year 3 as I remember. But it remains to be seen that this is politically feasible, there aren't many people who are closely watching this never popular in the first place train-wreck who think they'll stand.
ADDED: I guess you're also not familiar with the Jacksonian part of the US (roughly Greater Appalachia with plenty of the south). We don't volunteer for the military just because of the compensation, but because its our duty.
A greater point to make is why are the young listening so much less to their elders? The '60s "don't trust anyone over 30" and all this youth culture emphasis has had terrible results. Bringing this around to hacker territory, it was quite sad to watch the microcomputer crowd make so many of the same mistakes their elders made and learned from, and it's utterly damning that almost all our software technology is from a base no older than the calendar '60s.
Why do the penalties get bigger and bigger and bigger each year? Let me guess. Perhaps it is to get people to say "its not that bad" at first, so they could get it passed. What boggles my mind is that people actually promoted the idea of giving up their freedom to another person. Letting someone else dictate to them what is going to happen. Especially the youth, who fight their parents growing up in order to be able to make their own decisions. Then what do they do? They place a portion of their brain that is responsible for making health decisions on a silver stamped plate, and hand it away, all the while with a big happy smile. "Here you go, you can have my freedom, just don't penalize me for 3 years and i'll put a sticker on my car with your name on it, because I am now your bitch." I guess the part that pisses me off the most is that they didn't only put their own ability to make rational decisions on a silver plate, they put everyone elses on a plate too. They stole that decision from me. Not a whole lot is going to be different, but its just one more decision that I want get to make. Slowly over time, they keep handing over my decisions, until I become an integer instead of a human. Life is about making decisions and adventure, it isn't supposed to be pre-planned for you to follow the same path as everyone. You choose your own destiny.
Well, we don't have a direct democracy (thank goodness; impossible communications wise for the original 13 states, historically most unwise given the stark object lesson of Athens, which our Founders were familiar with). So it's not like they directly voted on this, and remember Pelosei's "But we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it". Which due to Scott Brown's election overstates the case, there turned out to be plenty of time to analyze the unfinished Senate bill before it was passed by the House.
The real question is how have the young been convinced to vote for one anti-freedom side vs. another? After they helped put those politicians in office it's too late.
Especially when the fears raised about the other side, social issues stuff, are entirely impractical and improbable, the national level Republicans have done even less for social conservatives than they've done for gun owners (I follow the latter very closely) and have no stomach whatsoever for doing battle there.
Well, as we're noting, perhaps harsh experience will teach them a lesson. They are slowly losing their enthusiasm for Obama....
You might also look into all the work done on rational ignorance: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rational_ignorance And why are they satisfied to get so much of their political information from comedy shows? And how things have gotten so polarized even admitting to being in favor of conservative or Republican stuff can have dire real world consequences; a threshold appears to me to have been passed in the aftermath of California Proposition 8.
Back to rational ignorance: to take myself as an example, what would it matter how I politically educated myself if I today lived in California? Even voting a straight Republican ticket wouldn't accomplish much with how "wet" I gather the state party has become. Or how I follow politics because my mother does and taught me that, plus I came of political age in a very consequential time, not long after Nixon's first term began, and a bit later realized the America I thought I had grown up in was gone, and researched the what and why. I don't do it just so I can vote better.
Bottom line, details omitted for this posting: when "The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!" in due course, and probably pretty soon, these young will learn their lesson, at least those who survive...
It's ironic that we now have more people in poverty, fewer jobs, and gun sales have increased, meanwhile, those very same things that the democrat party claims to be trying to reduce, are on the rise. They either have a secret plan, which is their true motive for decision making, or they lie to themselves claiming that the plan is pulling people out of poverty, and claiming that their gun laws are working. I can't figure it out.
Well, besides the usual hell-holes, only Colorado has really changed their gun laws for the worst in the last N years.
Compare to the nationwide sweep of shall-issue concealed carry regimes starting with Florida in 1987 and ending with the court enforced one in Illinois right now (ironically enough, including Colorado, and they had to drop the law they proposed to ban them from public college campuses). Only 7-8 states are left out, although they include the large population ones of California and New York.
At the judicial level, the Supremes finally acknowledged the 2nd (Heller) and 14th (McDonald) Amendments, and while this has had almost no effects "on the ground" outside of Illinois, hey, a Federal judge just granted a preliminary injunction against the Army Corps of Engineers' new total gun ban on their lands.
At the national level, the "assault weapons" ban sunsetted and shows no sign of returning, you can now carry concealed in National Park land, put guns in Amtrack stowed luggage....
The sweep of shall issue regimes has had an effect on gun sales, as many people take advantage of them. But they don't explain the whole incredible increase, especially the increase in sales of rifles of military utility; heck, the last batch of military surplus inexpensive bolt action battle rifles has been exhausted....
I don't know if they claim their gun laws are "working", outside of the traditional gun owner's hell-holes; if they are, they're delusional.
As for the rest, well, anyone who can read a chart notices that LBJ's "War on Poverty" ended the decline in the poverty rate. Jobs, they only emphasize the number still looking for work, not the ones including the underemployed or dropped out e.g. due to giving up trying to find a job. And we've noticed a pretty constant pattern of economic reports being adversely adjusted after first announced....
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[ 5.2 ms ] story [ 25.0 ms ] threadThe government had to do this because no one could predict ahead of time what pools the insurance companies would end up with in 2014, except I'm sure the latter weren't as optimistic as the government.
Penalties the IRS can charge for not signing up (to sites many found difficult or impossible to do so in the first place) are minimal this year, and get really big in year 3 as I remember. But it remains to be seen that this is politically feasible, there aren't many people who are closely watching this never popular in the first place train-wreck who think they'll stand.
ADDED: I guess you're also not familiar with the Jacksonian part of the US (roughly Greater Appalachia with plenty of the south). We don't volunteer for the military just because of the compensation, but because its our duty.
A greater point to make is why are the young listening so much less to their elders? The '60s "don't trust anyone over 30" and all this youth culture emphasis has had terrible results. Bringing this around to hacker territory, it was quite sad to watch the microcomputer crowd make so many of the same mistakes their elders made and learned from, and it's utterly damning that almost all our software technology is from a base no older than the calendar '60s.
The real question is how have the young been convinced to vote for one anti-freedom side vs. another? After they helped put those politicians in office it's too late.
Especially when the fears raised about the other side, social issues stuff, are entirely impractical and improbable, the national level Republicans have done even less for social conservatives than they've done for gun owners (I follow the latter very closely) and have no stomach whatsoever for doing battle there.
Well, as we're noting, perhaps harsh experience will teach them a lesson. They are slowly losing their enthusiasm for Obama....
You might also look into all the work done on rational ignorance: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rational_ignorance And why are they satisfied to get so much of their political information from comedy shows? And how things have gotten so polarized even admitting to being in favor of conservative or Republican stuff can have dire real world consequences; a threshold appears to me to have been passed in the aftermath of California Proposition 8.
Back to rational ignorance: to take myself as an example, what would it matter how I politically educated myself if I today lived in California? Even voting a straight Republican ticket wouldn't accomplish much with how "wet" I gather the state party has become. Or how I follow politics because my mother does and taught me that, plus I came of political age in a very consequential time, not long after Nixon's first term began, and a bit later realized the America I thought I had grown up in was gone, and researched the what and why. I don't do it just so I can vote better.
Bottom line, details omitted for this posting: when "The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!" in due course, and probably pretty soon, these young will learn their lesson, at least those who survive...
Compare to the nationwide sweep of shall-issue concealed carry regimes starting with Florida in 1987 and ending with the court enforced one in Illinois right now (ironically enough, including Colorado, and they had to drop the law they proposed to ban them from public college campuses). Only 7-8 states are left out, although they include the large population ones of California and New York.
At the judicial level, the Supremes finally acknowledged the 2nd (Heller) and 14th (McDonald) Amendments, and while this has had almost no effects "on the ground" outside of Illinois, hey, a Federal judge just granted a preliminary injunction against the Army Corps of Engineers' new total gun ban on their lands.
At the national level, the "assault weapons" ban sunsetted and shows no sign of returning, you can now carry concealed in National Park land, put guns in Amtrack stowed luggage....
The sweep of shall issue regimes has had an effect on gun sales, as many people take advantage of them. But they don't explain the whole incredible increase, especially the increase in sales of rifles of military utility; heck, the last batch of military surplus inexpensive bolt action battle rifles has been exhausted....
I don't know if they claim their gun laws are "working", outside of the traditional gun owner's hell-holes; if they are, they're delusional.
As for the rest, well, anyone who can read a chart notices that LBJ's "War on Poverty" ended the decline in the poverty rate. Jobs, they only emphasize the number still looking for work, not the ones including the underemployed or dropped out e.g. due to giving up trying to find a job. And we've noticed a pretty constant pattern of economic reports being adversely adjusted after first announced....