Ask HN: What is really wrong with the US economy, really?
A couple things. I am not here to complain about my lot in life, or seek advice. I understand that I'm better off than most. I realize it is unavoidable that some people will argue that the economy is better than ever, and it's all about personal responsibility. I accept that - I can just ignore those comments.
The only people I know who seem to be comfortable and have their financial lives in order have had steady, high middle-management type positions for a long time. They're a small minority of the people I know.
My question is, what is the problem, really? I am fairly sure this is not the type of situation my grandparents lived in. I feel under a lot of pressure all the time, and yet it seems I am not quite 'making it' financially or materially. Is that how it is for everybody? Is something wrong with the economy, or is this just how the human hierarchy has always worked? Is it me, the country, the region, the times, or everything, or nothing?
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[ 4.4 ms ] story [ 251 ms ] thread2) Our so called "health care" system is extremely fubarred.
There's probably more, but those strike me as the big two.
Edit: To elaborate a bit on point 1, Peak Oil is not the end of oil. It is the end of cheap oil. The current U.S. economy and (expected) lifestyle was developed in the era of cheap oil. That era is ending, which is likely part of what is fueling the depression. Our current infrastructure, habits, etc are simply not sustainable with the cost of oil going up and not coming back down. (At this point, if we discovered that Antarctica or the moon were essentially 99% oil with a thin top layer of dust/snow/whatever, that would not solve this because endless expensive oil does not solve the problem here.)
Also, the inflation adjusted price of gasoline hasn't really changed in a brutal manner:
http://www.randomuseless.info/gasprice/gasprice.html
It's twice as high as the 'typical' trend, but vehicles make better enough mileage to eat most of that.
Edit: and if you drill into it, the shipping cost of the food at the grocery store is probably less than the gas cost of driving to the store. So shipping hits prices, but it hits them when a $0.05 shipping cost for a package of whatever goes to $0.10.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_energy_crisis
Further, the theory of Peak Oil is rooted in actual history. After the Alaska oil pipline came online, oil prices steadily went down for a time. It came online in 1977 and the reduction was in the 1980's: http://www.api.org/oil-and-natural-gas-overview/exploration-...
So please explain to me how a chart showing that current prices are, in real terms, as bad as or worse than 1979 prices supports your first statement.
Thank you.
This shows residential energy as a percentage going down:
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=10891
This shows gasoline roughly matching the other link:
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=9831
But to the point, a 1 or 2% increase in gasoline spending might stink, but it shouldn't be smashing the economy.
But I guess this is the point at which we agree to disagree.
Thank you for responding. (Edit: and have some upvotes)
(I would take this a step further and say that $4 is still cheap for gasoline; it isn't clear that the much higher fuel prices in Europe have been bad economically. And I'm someone who got to start driving in the '90s when prices fell below a dollar)
And the residential energy link you gave: This is the headline: "Lower residential energy use reduces home energy expenditures as share of household income". So people are apparently reducing their use of energy, probably in part because they are feeling pinched.
At this point, it looks to me like you and I do not see the same conclusions from the same data. I don't understand how you can submit the links you did in support of your point of view here.
So I think it's probably best to walk away from this discussion.
Thank you.
It's not a very good measure, it isn't worth analyzing it deeply, but (to me anyway), it doesn't point to a massive increase in energy spending.
We live in compounds built out of materials that at least in some phase of their production include major oil or gas inputs. We drive and walk on roads literally made out of oil, in vehicles that were built out of parts which required major amounts of oil.
We live in an era of oil, our life is based on oil.
For now.
I think we're in for several more 2008-style stair step economic crashes over a longer period of time, with little growth between them. At least until we can truly replace oil as a transportable high density energy source. (Or until political and societal systems break down.)
Hopefully we get some major new energy source, like cheap fusion or space based generation, like orbital mass production of photovoltaics panels and beaming it back to earth in microwaves. Given sufficient energy, we could just synthesize the liquid fuels we need.
There's unfortunately a low chance we get this magic energy source in time, but let's hope for the best.
Consider what is listed as "shelter", "transportation" and "food". The biggest costs are there, according to the first page you linked. Those areas heavily affected by cost of energy and reduce what is available for all the rest, including spending on gasoline.
Are vehicle miles going up or down? Maybe gasoline spending is not increasing, because people just don't have any money left for it?
However in life you will have to pass up some things you want in order to maintain living within your means, as a result you are going against the constant consuming behavior that our culture has taught us, and feel a failure for not buying all that stuff.
I couldn't speak to the social pressures of the past (I didn't live through them). My personal experience is that when I was able to ignore the consuming pressure society gives, the amount of stress and pressure plummet and I have been able to enjoy life much to a higher standard.
Those middle managers may be in that sweet spot of enough to be comfortable and feel successful, but not so successful they feel the need to compete with the consuming elite of execs and millionaires. Don't be fooled though, there are plenty of people in other "class brackets" that are able to shed the stress and pressure of the US culture.
> Heck our high schools even teach us how to properly consume, and how to acquire things we cannot afford.
I'm curious as to what you mean by this. Could you elaborate, for someone who never went through your highschool system? Thanks!
Long term, we have huge problems in my opinion. Our profligate military spending is going to catch up with us. If we are able to redirect our offshore military spending soon, things might be OK, but I am not hopeful.
Edit: I forgot to give my advice: don't get caught up in consumerism (stop watching TV commercials, don't get a new car every time your brother in law does, etc.). Try to save some of your after tax income. Invest time (and money if needed) in continuing education over your entire life.
One thing: it is very important to wind down the size of our military very slowly because we have made a commitment to supply jobs long term in return for being in the military and the sacrifices that entails. My solution is to bring most service people stationed overseas home as soon as we can manage that - better to spend the money inside the USA while maintaining our employment commitments to people in our military services.
Some thoughts on both sides of this: 1 - My grandparents lost it all in the Great Depression. My parents never had enough money to take overseas vacation once the kids were born. They were never comfortable. This isn't unique to our generation.
2 - We have a lot of material gains that aren't factored into the equation. (Free internet, etc) But this is forcing us to compare against others a lot more. We only see the people succeeding, and don't count the failures.
3 - Once you discount the effects of obesity, we are a much healthier generation than our parents and grandparents. Think of all the major diseases (polio, flu) that used to be fatal.
4 - For better or worse, there is a "Winner takes all" mentality in the current environment. Globalization plus Technology means the best get paid disproportionally more than in prior generations. Upper Middle Class is getting squeezed. The "winners" are now earning a lot more, and are a lot more visible.
5 - In today's environment, losing a job costs A TON and is incredibly destabilizing.
I don't know what advice to give, other than don't get sucked in to the consumerism, or feeling forced to keep up with everyone else.
Now, debt, unemployment and inflation are soaring (if you want to see how bad it really is, visit cities like Detroit or the non-wealthy areas of Chicago).
There is a growing wealth divide. I have nothing against "1 percenters" but I do believe the gap is becoming dangerous. 95 percent of recovered funds from this recent "improvement" in the economy (since the last crash) have gone to the wealthiest 1 percent.
Our government's budget is increasing in size, but they are not spending money any more wisely. Certain contractors make a killing (particularly in the military sector), and its kind of a false economy based not on merit but who puts money back into their politician's pocket (in the "real" world, the healthcare.gov site would have been built for a fraction of the cost and its failure would have been a huge blow to the company that created it).
Part of this is people failing to adapt to the changing world or feeling too entitled and expecting their corrupt/indifferent government to fix every problem. Part of it is that automation and oversea workers are claiming many jobs (but these are crappy jobs you wouldn't want anyway). Automation is even going into territories you might not think of. 100 years ago the US population was almost half farmers (IIRC), and now it is less than 2 percent.
Basically, you are not delusional. Things are getting harder, and worse. Competition is getting fierce as everyone is increasingly competing to justify their worth to employers. The economy is definitely in a bubble because the stock indices does not reflect the reality of debt, unemployment, and our stale economy right now. I have no good idea of how these problems can be solved. I am no Luddite, but I think that perhaps taking a step backwards in time could be an interesting experiment - create more towns that are self-sufficient, grow their own crops, build their own houses, etc. It seems like much of the wealth is getting boiled down into the hands of fewer and fewer big companies.
If you would like to see the government spend money more wisely, focusing on making entitlement costs tractable should be the top priority.
That's not to say that government contracting isn't grossly dysfunctional.
In contrast, spending for healthcare, education, and welfare measurably makes Americans' lives better. Cutting funding for these programs looks attractive for those who don't use them anyway (the rich), but would ultimately widen the class divide and be harmful to the country.
They tried that once, and it turns out tha tin practice this idea is much much worse than you'd think it is at the surface: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garden_city_movement
Maybe it would be different now, what with communications technology like the internet making proximity to major city centers less important. But to me, this doesn't sound like a practical solution
Paternal Grandpa as it turns out was in some labor unrest in the Mid-Continent oil labor-strike ( with actual Wobblies! ) and that is why he went into carpentry. Violent business; gunfire, explosives. Wow. Grandpa? Really?
I was in gummint contracting from 2004-2009. It's not good in there. A few contracts are really large but it's not a good business any more. healthcare.gov is sadly probably more typical than not.
I think we're somewhat frog-boiled in luxury myself. Really look at what was the style in 1960; it was pretty spare - about what you'd have now if you were quite poor. I got new clothes basically once a year - from Sears, and they came on a train six weeks later. From Sears to Amazon in three decades...
The... uh .. Vietnam War made young men have more options then, but we don't wanna go there...
I think the higher returns constitute "winner take all" - and that means competition is actually less. Each option is much like the other, so the winner can leverage out the losers - winner take all. Of those, some fraction will persist. If innovation is heat to Schumpeterian change, then the heat is up. The rest is just endless laying off of risk through contracts/contracting.
But the basic thing is - you'd just expect more growth at the right of the curve.
Again, I don't really mean to press you too far with the questions, I'm just a young guy who hears $110,000 and thinks "gee, that's a lot of money".
Ten years ago I wouldn't have believed you if you told me I'd be spending nearly $10k a year just to get adequate health care, or over $20k a year just to have a reasonable place to live. I was thrilled when my first salaried job paid $35k/year, and couldn't understand why that barely covered my expenses! $35000 is a lot of money! $110000 is a truckload!
(Thankfully, I'm in the OP's position this year, and I earned more than I spent on essential expenses... not so much last year, though.)
110K would make for a bigger cushion, though.
I moved from my hometown of Winnipeg, Canada to Silicon Valley to build my career. In moving, I tripled my salary. I am definitely better off financially for having moved, but my daily quality of life is lower. Here's some food for thought:
* HOUSING QUALITY AND COST. This is, bar none, the most important aspect of my currently feeling like I'm barely getting by. In Winnipeg, if you're roommating an apartment ~30 minutes bus from downtown, your rent will be around $300/mo. 1br to yourself will set you back $500-$1000 depending where you live. The fanciest 1br penthouse I could find was $1700. Personally, I lived in a rather 'expensive', nice 1br apartment that was in a trendy, gentrifying neighbourhood about 1.5 miles from my work downtown. It cost me $850/mo and that was a luxury. I could've gotten much cheaper if I wasn't so picky about location. Compare with SF: Housing here costs a fortune. And strict rent control + high paying jobs means that the housing they do build is marketed to high income people (read: twitter millionaires). So not only is nothing available in a reasonable price range, but there are many social factors that try to make $3500/mo studios sound normal. In SF, paying a similar percentage of my take-home income as I did in Winnipeg, I get a shitty, tiny, 'jr 1 bedroom' (~400sqft) apartment nestled between a noisy road and a freeway. I can walk to work, but it's 3 miles one way, and takes me through some areas I don't feel comfortable walking alone in.
Housing cost anchors everything else. In Winnipeg I'd be paying $300/mo for what I have and where I have it; in SF I pay $1600. My salary tripled; it didn't quintuple. And because housing costs are the anchor, it makes everything else more expensive by comparison
* KEEPING UP WITH THE HIGH-POWERED JONESES. Tech has a lot of young, rich people in it. And young rich people don't always make the wisest decisions. Consequently, there's a lot of conspicuous consumption going on. I feel like I can't afford to keep up, because I'm financially disciplined and highly value long term stability. I look at other people and assume they do the same. Perhaps they don't. Maybe they're spending 50% of their disposable income on cheap glasses, expensive jeans, and cocktails with PBR in them. I spend almost 50% of my disposable (post-living-expenses) income on savings. Appearances can be misleading, and if you don't consciously keep aware of this, it can be demoralizing
* A NEW NORMAL. I would say that, proportional to cost of living, my real income has not substantially risen by moving. However, it has inflated. And inflation is a good thing when compared against uninflated prices. For example, flights. A flight from YWG to SFO costs ~$700, regardless if I live in Winnipeg ($40k income, $400/mo) or SF ($120k income, $1600/mo rent). As a result, my day-to-day standard of life hasn't increased, but my ability to do things outside of my day to day has. When I lived in Winnipeg, I was unable to take more than one flight per year, anywhere (and I usually spent it on professional develoment-related things). Now, I think nothing of dropping a few hundred dollars to fly to a conference on a weekend. The same goes for nationally-marketed goods such as electronics. My rent might've gone waaay up, but an iphone costs $800USD regardless of where I live. It's easy to overlook this, because it is not a typical everyday thing.
* LONG TERM SAVINGS. This is a little bit more important for me, since I'm paying into SS but as a non-citizen, will never collect a dime. But savings. Savings don't really have an emotional feel to them. They're not tangible, they're just some numbers on pages. If you're pumping a lot of money into savings (like I am), it can feel like that is just money th...
That's a really great quote and I'm happy to see the honesty. This gets to the heart of the matter.
You're stuck playing "keep up with the Jones'", which by very definition you can not win.
You need to define your own goalposts, then they won't move, and you can actually get there.
What makes you happy? How do you want to spend your limited time on this earth? What do you want to contribute to the world?
Make those things your "goalposts", not money, and you'll be much, much happier and better off.
If the 'goalposts' are 'live in a studio apartment, pay for health/dental care, have heat and light and hot water', and the costs of THAT keep going up, what is he supposed to do about that? Will he be happier and better off if he gets an inferior health plan to save money? Obviously not.
That's a very good point. If the world changes under your feet and makes it impossible to live with the quality of life you had or were aiming to have, I think your only option is to adjust your internal thinking so that you don't become unhappy.
These are moving goalposts. But without them, I would stagnate and achieve little.
The key to this is you said "my" goalposts.
As long as you're living your life aiming for goalposts you set, they can be achievable. The problems arise when you try to achieve someone elses goal posts.
Convert your rent to a mortgage payment, and lock in $1,500 a month payments (probably around what you are paying in rent right now). The housing prices are only going to go up in Seattle as it becomes more of a tech city (Amazon is building an entire new office in Belltown, for example).
Here's a nice (affordable on 110k) house in Seattle: http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2809-S-Columbian-Way-Seatt...
And you still have money leftover for a nice German car that depreciates half its value in a few years...
Perhaps you don't want to take on debt. Solid? I'd imagine your grandparents did so to build their house though as well. Also, you can even look outside of the city for cheaper real estate.
Unfortunately, $110k is becoming the new normalized "market value" for highly-qualified software engineers in America, and so the tech neighborhoods are becoming more gentrified and recalibrating their costs of living such that a six-figure salary now makes you a middle class "technocrat". I maintain that living in Seattle, SF, NYC is a "luxury" though. If you aren't happy with your standard of living in one of these luxury cities, there's nothing wrong with a place like Pittsburgh, Houston, or Cleveland where a $400k house is a mansion.
Other than that, there's a luck component to this as well. The waterfront home-owners with garaged Porsche 911s by Burke-Gillman trail in Seattle got in on the Microsoft ship early (i.e. early 90s), the company grew tremendously and they had a stake in revolutionizing the industry, and became millionaires off of their equity. The corporate life treated these Microsoft millionaires well (and chances are they had the same qualifications, skill sets, and risk aversions that you have now), but the opportunity of working at 1990 Microsoft pales in comparison to working at 2010 Microsoft. Nowadays, an entry-level job at Microsoft means having nine managers, living in an outrageously expensive area, and coding C# unit tests all day for a relative pittance. That's not to say Seattle has devolved into a SF or NYC in terms of living cost though.
How to reap the same standard of living today? Give up the cozy big corporate job (six-figures isn't as impressive in 2014 as it was in 1998), take a risk. For instance, join or found a startup that ends up becoming the next FB, invest in something like TSLA or Bitcoin a year ago. I can't say what the path to success looks like now, but I can say that it involves luck, savviness, networking, and risk-taking. Who knows? You MIGHT join the right early-stage company that grows into the next Microsoft empire (I certainly can't tell you which one), and become one of those paragons of success through following the safe corporate job route. However, you can't become complacent doing your 9-5 ASP.NET programming, or you'll never have that waterfront house.
The solution for the Microsoft millionaires of the 90s was to keep their heads to the grindstone and work up the corporate ladder, maybe even hand off to Microsoft some groundbreaking IP from their brains (for instance, the inventors of COM+, PowerShell, FAT32, PE, .NET, etc. probably own those houses). Unfortunately, this safe path no longer has nearly the same results as it did 20 years ago, and readily handing over your million-dollar brain children to a large corporation might give you a 15% raise next year in return.
If you want something more extravagant than the linked Zillow home above, then move out of Seattle and remote work out of your own $400k Pittsburgh mansion.
Here's one of many: http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5760-Evans-Rd-Export-PA-15...
Sure, the weather is considerably crappier, and the locals aren't as educated as in luxury cities like SF/NYC, but you'll be relatively (in other words, extremely) well off -- cost of living is a trade-off. It's a matter of what you value.
I've survived in Seattle making that amount, and making half that amount. Each time I've had to adjust my life in order to get what I wanted out of life.
Though I could certainly be wrong.
It sounds like you're doing better than 99% of people. Six figure income, no huge expenses. I think the question isn't 'what's the problem with the economy' - really the question should be 'what's the problem with our expectations?'
I think for all of human history the Joneses have looked more financially comfortable and happy than they really are. Perhaps the comfortable people you envy are not as comfortable as they appear. Or maybe comfort is more a state of mind than a state of finance.
Those are my two cents, at least. I'd be happy to hear more about your situation and where you're coming from.
Even though it seems like money reduces hardship and should increase happiness, I think as long as you aren't broke, relationships matter more than bank accounts.
What do you think?
Things sound like they're OK for the OP right now, and he doesn't sound incredibly troubled, just perturbed. And that's probably the right point of view; no use freaking out. But I genuinely worry for a big chunk of the US - people my age and younger - because I don't know if they'll be able to afford anything, or get jobs, 10 years from now.
Once you're able to pay your expenses and put enough money away to have piece of mind, I think the intangible things matter most. If all my friends have to move into the wilderness to afford their rent, though, I'm gonna be pretty lonely :)
If 99% of people are worse off than I am, that seems like an extremely serious problem to me. Hence my question.
Older generation, especially those through the hardsihps of war, are happy to live, period. Jobs we consider shitty today (like cashier or truck driver) are much better than infantry man in war torn Europe.
Today's people are much more spoiled, not just in consumerism, but the idea of being above manual labour, freedom to chase your unprofitable goal, not settle until you found a dream job are all quite new.
Maybe it has to do with WWII. After WWII, the US was the only great economic power left undamaged. Our industries supplied the world, and they boomed. That wealth trickled down to many people in the US. Now, decades after WWII, other countries around the world have developed their own industry, driving down global prices and wages. As a result, perhaps the average global worker is better off, but the average US worker is worse off. This may partly explain why median wages have been stagnant in the US since 1974ish.
I wonder how much of comfort is attitude or perspective. I also happen to be a single man living in a high-rent city (Palo Alto). My income is about $30,000. Rent is my largest expense by far, but overall I feel quite comfortable. I manage to contribute $5k each January to my Roth IRA. No doubt if I had children or medical expenses, my $30,000 income would be strained, but right now I feel relatively comfortable on it. My needs are met.
I live in a shitty small apartment in a run down part of SF, and my annual rent is $20,000. Either you're talking net income, PA is way cheaper than I've been led to believe, or there's some factor I'm missing
What I'm getting at is it's easy to get by on simple jobs like that when you live in Nowhere, WY. Then, later, when the town booms people are incredulous about how you were ever able to afford living there.
That's exactly my point though, then & now are almost certainly not apples to apples, and "Well I couldn't afford their house today" is exactly the thing that I am saying is a mistake to think.
Whenever I find myself following the line of thinking that OP put forward, I try and remember: I'm the first generation in my family to be able to rely on the fact that any place I'm in (read: my car and my personal residence) has air conditioning
SPOILER "quantitative easing"
I know how you feel but at the same time my sister and brother in law make 2/3rd what you make, own a house, a timeshare, raises a kid, home schools, volunteers, her and my nephew are docents at the museum of the pacific, she teaches MS office and other home maker type computer classes (as in how to make a newsletter on your computer), She's in several clubs (the moms club, a bowling club, a bunko club, etc.) she's got a yearly pass to disneyland and goes at least twice a month, used to be at least once a week.
What she doesn't have: She lives near the Pomona fairgrounds in LA not in Seattle. She drives a 20-30 year old car. She's got old furniture and old TVs, CRT not LCD, she's enjoying her life way more than pretty much anyone I know.
None of this is meant to take away your valid feeling that even making low 6 figures you feel like you're struggling. I'm the same way. Especially when I lived in SF I thought to myself "I'm making good money, why does it seem like I can't afford to live here?"
Move to Tokyo, Singapore, HK, or NYC if you really want to feel like a financial failure. In those cities you'll see large portions of them cater to people making 7 figures.
If everyone moves to those particular low-rent places, that increases the demand there, and rents will go up until housing supply increases to meet demand (or, like SF, it never increases and prices just keep going up). This is ignoring the problem of finding work in low-rent areas (though telecommuting at least makes that less difficult.)
To me, 'the problem is where you live' is utterly condescending. Would it be reasonable to tell a minimum wage worker, who works 80+ hours a week, that his problem is where he lives and he should just move? How is that person supposed to afford to move when they can barely pay rent every month? Do you really think THAT is the problem, that some people happen to live/work in a certain location, and it would be better if they just moved to where all the other low-income families live?
For a concrete example: I used to work in the Seattle area for a few years. I 'solved' the rent costs problem by living way to the east, in the Issaquah mountains.
Unfortunately this meant a 30-60 minute car commute each way, along with a big increase in car maintenance/fuel expenses. And because I was in the mountains, every winter the occasional ice storm would knock out power/heat for 1-2 weeks, or the mountain roads would be so iced over that I couldn't get to work. Days I'm not working are days I'm not getting paid; if I'm lucky I don't get fired.
Yeah, solves everything, doesn't it?
I'm not sure what your point is. Plenty of people choose to live in cheaper places for lower salaries or for that matter cheaper places for the same salary. Plenty of people also choose to live far from work and have a really long commute. It's a CHOICE. You make it, you live with it. If you want to live in an expensive place that's also your CHOICE.
I had a friend who lived in Laguna Beach, CA and got a job in Studio City. He then whined about how his life sucked because this commute was so long (~2hrs in traffic). He wanted special treatment because of his hardship. It was pointed out that was HIS CHOICE. The rest of the employees chose to live closer to the company. He CHOOSE to have a long commute because he wanted to stay in Laguna Beach. Eventually he got a job somewhere closer to his house rather. Again, his CHOICE.
I have another friend who moved to Arkansas from Orange County. In Orange County he was paying $1200 (a while ago) a month for 2 bedroom apartment. In Arkansas he had a 3 bedroom house on 1.5 acres of land for $350 a month. Again that was his choice.
The world doesn't owe you a nice place to live in an exciting area of the world for a cheap price.
People like you or me certainly choose to move to LA or Seattle or San Francisco for a cushy tech job, but that's a tiny percentage of the population.
To me, this is like telling a diabetic that they 'choose' to inject insulin and check their blood sugar every day. Certainly they can exercise free will and stop, but there are severe consequences that make that not a realistic option.
What about the food they ate? It was likely whole foods, which would lead to lower rates of heart disease and obesity. And if they lived in a rural area or subdivision, they likely grew some of their own or bought it from local farmers.
My grandparents never borrowed a dime from a bank. They owned a house, two vehicles, and raised 5 children. Their vacation was a week every summer at a rental cabin about 3 hours away. They didn't get cable until the mid 90s and never got the internet or a cell phone. How much money could you save if you never owed anyone interest and spent 20 dollars a month for communication?
Even if somebody's spending $200/mo on telephone and internet connectivity, that still pales in comparison to the cost of rent in pretty much any part of the country. A fairly small studio apartment in the area where I live is approaching $2000/mo, minimum - to pay less than that I'd probably have to move 30+ miles away, which then increases my commuting costs dramatically and might force me to drive instead of take public transit. (And no, I'm not living in some posh downtown area with high demand, I'm living next to the low-income workers and big families, in an apartment complex built in the 70s or 80s.)
Then let's look at health and dental costs, which combined together probably are double/triple what you pay combined for reasonable cell phone/internet service. (Personally, I pay $30/mo for cell phone voice and data. Internet is expensive because yay, monopolies - very little choice there.) Going without phone/internet connectivity in this modern society is utterly ridiculous as a working professional; you simply can't get away with it unless you decide you're gonna cut yourself off from the world and live in a cabin somewhere.
To answer your specific question, let's say he spends $200/mo on internet+cell phone. If he cuts those out entirely, that's $2400/yr, or barely a month's rent in many localities.
Don't be ridiculous. Stop focusing on tiny things when the real problems are right in front of you: Housing costs, health costs, transit costs...
Unless you live in NY, SF (/me waves!), or DC, that number is grossly out of touch with the actual costs of rent in the United States.
This is from 2013. It hasn't gotten better. Their median for the city I live in is $2395 (and for reference, I'm an hour+ drive from San Francisco; ~2 hours by train).
Rents around me have definitely been going up, even if they're not at $2400. And that's for studios/1 bedrooms. If I were to move into the exact apartment I have now, the rent on the lease would be a few hundred dollars more than what I'm already paying (despite the fact that they've been bumping my rent up as much as they can).
Yes, there are low-rent areas. But a lot of people don't have the option to live in them.
My friend is fond of telling me I could get a sweet 1000sqft loft in downtown Houston for $1200/mo or so. Or a regular apartment for half that.
Of course, to me, not living in Texas is worth the extra thousand dollars a month
I get the feeling that people are confusing the rents in extremely desirable neighborhoods with the rents you must pay to be in the city at all.
that still pales in comparison to the cost of rent in pretty much any part of the country.
Do you actually know what the cost of rent is in the rest of the country? Not long ago I paid $450/mo to split a 3br apartment with two friends in a moderate town 1 hour from a major city. Compared to that, $200/month on connectivity is indeed quite a lot.
Will you still argue that housing + health care don't dwarf most other expenses? Cost of living is a sum of costs, not just the cost of rent or the cost of health care. That sum keeps going up.
Also, for many people sharing a big apartment/house is simply not an issue - having kids, having health issues, or a simple lack of available large housing. I've definitely shared places here in the past to cut costs, but that comes with all sorts of hidden costs built into it, and it's riskier.
Living 1 hour from a major city already imposes significant costs. I hope you're not an hour from the nearest hospital or fire station (I used to live that far from the nearest hospital, in an area with no fire coverage. Not the greatest...)
I don't mean I live in the middle of nowhere and commute to the city, I mean it's a satellite town of the variety you often find near large cities (To give you an idea). 150,000 people, and I live 200 yards from one of many fire stations.
I suppose from another point of view, it's better to start with the small things you have control over, and make some tiny but measurable improvements, so you don't despair at how big everything is. That's fair.
What is that supposed to mean?
Remember, you live in the consumption capital of the world. More than ever, you're being bombarded from all sides at all times with ingenious advertising designed for the sole purpose of separating you from your money. Even your friends, family and colleagues are constantly encouraging you to spend more and more, even when they don't know they're doing it. You've been lied to your entire life - you've been told that spending ever-increasing amounts of money will make you happier and "better off" and it's plainly not true.
Why do companies advertise stuff? Solely to further their own agenda. It's not about you.
I just finished reading "Your Money or Your Life" [2] - an excellent book that walks through the steps needed to break out of the cycle you're stuck in. It's a little self-helpy, but the message is great, and if you follow the steps they outline, you'll absolutely be completely financially independent and won't need to go to work if you don't want to. Of course, you can if you do want to.
The tldr; is very simple - stop consuming so much stuff you don't need that isn't making you any happier, at which point you'll find you earn more money than you need, so you can work less and focus more on the things you want to, then you'll spend even less, etc. etc. etc. The amount of money you spend is directly related to the amount of time you must go to work. Spending is not what you want to be doing.
Find the things that make you happy, and focus on those. Spending money does not equal happiness, so stop playing that game.
From my personal perspective, I highly, highly, highly recommend taking a couple of years off to figure out what actually makes you tick. I spent two years driving Alaska->Argentina because I wanted to, and another friend that is unemployed right now has never been happier and more in touch with herself in her entire life. The first couple of months feel strange and awkward and lazy, etc. After a while, you become so busy with what makes you happy you can't imagine how you ever found time to go to work. Once you have that perspective, it's doubtful you'll feel happy consuming, because every time you do that, you have to work more.
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7315456
[2]http://www.amazon.ca/Your-Money-Life-Transforming-Relationsh...
EDIT: Just for fun, do an audit on how much you spend month-to-month. Include every single cent that you pay out. Cable, Internet, Cell phone, gas, car insurance, food, groceries, snacks, clothes, shoes, transport, entertainment, vacations, personal grooming, lifestyle things, etc. etc. etc. I guarantee you'll be shocked at how much money you're spending on crap you don't need, and didn't consciously know you were spending it on. I make a fraction of what you make, and I'm saving more than I ever have in my life, simply by being extremely conscious of all the crap I don't need to spend money on.
http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/
I'd also agree that taking some time off is very helpful. I took 1 year off to do some volunteering. It taught me to live a simpler life and respect for the dollar (when your income is 0 you make it work the way you can).
[1] http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-sim...
For example, if increasing capital gains taxes or introducing a consumption tax become popular, people living frugally on modest investment incomes will be hard-hit. Considering that someone in his thirties could easily live another 50 years, it's hard to adjust retirement savings goals to match that sort of risk.
On top of that, careers are the biggest investments of most people. The idea of abandoning that investment and assuming the risks of a fixed income lifestyle seems half-baked to me.
Anyway, that being said, I like his attitude and tips on spending, at least when he isn't spending inordinate amounts of time on something to save a few bucks.
And you've missed the entire point.
The point is to live on a fixed income if you want, for however long you want. If you don't want to, just pickup some work and supplement that fixed income.
Choice and options is the point.
For example, if a young person retired 20 years ago, he probably would have done a poor job budgeting for increases in prices for healthcare, especially given what the individual market looks these days. If, after a twenty year absence from the workforce, he is forced to work again, he will rapidly be approaching traditional retirement age with a large gap in work history and limited career options.
Maybe working or volunteering on the side can keep his skills sharp, but how easy will it be to convince potential employers of that fact?
It's possible that people are saying "retirement" when they mean "frequent sabbaticals", in which case, some better labeling of that lifestyle choice would clear up my confusion. Even then, I wouldn't blame a potential employer for being wary to give challenging job openings to sabbatical-takers due to the higher risk that they'll take off.
Another interesting data point to support taking some time off is the increased security of students who have taken "gap years" before starting college. In my experience they're almost all much happier, more thoughtful people pursuing what they'd really like to do in life rather than your average college student who's there because his parents told him to be (like me and most of my peers in college).
You mean the book?
I borrowed it from my local library, you should too :)
Saying his problem is living in Seattle misses the point. Many people can't afford to move someplace cheaper even if they wanted to, which is a real problem - he can afford to move, probably, but other people cannot, and he's asking about problems like that.
Of course not, don't be ridiculous. Stop being so black-and-white (as my friends always say to Engineer me)
I'm suggesting he take a close look at how much he's spending on what, and if those things are actually making him happy. He needs Cut out or reduce spending on things that are not actually improving his happiness, and he'll have a lot more money than he thought.
At no point am I saying spend so little money you're in misery.
Telling him to cut costs is absolutely absurd. He didn't ask for advice and he didn't say his costs are extreme.
Which has nothing to do with anything. He doesn't feel financially well-off or stable, so obviously he's not happy with his earnings to savings ratio.
> He asked about why things aren't better than they are
And my perspective and advice is that things are better than he thinks they are, he just needs to adjust his attitude.
> Telling him to cut costs is absolutely absurd. He didn't ask for advice
Obviously you're welcome to your opinion and me mine. If you don't like my advice you can always down vote it. Cutting costs is actually extremely sound advice for someone that doesn't feel financially "well off" or stable. He admits elsewhere in the thread "I feel like the goalposts keep moving".
> He didn't say his costs are extreme
Nobody that's not entirely satisfied money-wise thinks their expenses are extreme. That's the whole point.
Also, he asked about other people and you're saying he needs to adjust HIS attitude? What does that do for everyone else? Do they all just need to adjust their attitudes and accept their lots in life?
The goalposts moving doesn't mean he's setting the goalposts for himself; if anything, it implies the opposite: Someone else is setting the goalposts. If those goalposts are essential (rent, health care, food)... what is he supposed to do?
Of course he thinks that he as to. As others have pointed out, he's making $110k a year and not happy with how much he has, it's pretty likely he's spending too much, or he just has unrealistic expectations.
> His lifestyle sounds fairly frugal by modern standards
You mean modern standards that set the goal posts we should all own x,y,z ? If you didn't know already, those "modern standards" you refer to are the problem here.
> What does that do for everyone else? Do they all just need to adjust their attitudes and accept their lots in life?
Attitude and spending. And plenty more things too. Read the book I recommended.
> If those goalposts are essential (rent, health care, food)... what is he supposed to do?
If you're trying to say for one second that someone making $110k a year can't pay for those "essentials", you're not being productive here.
Let's go with the case of someone earning $30k who's can't afford those - which I think is a realistic scenario. In that case, then the only option is to adjust ones expectations and personal goal posts to fit reality. Hypothetically, if the economy completely dies tomorrow (a la Germany, USSR or Argentina every ~10 years) will you be horribly unhappy you can no longer own your own car and are forced to take public transport, and must downsize your house to a small apartment, etc. etc.?
If you are unhappy with that, then you're basing your happiness on external factors outside your control (the economy) and you're setting yourself up to be a very unhappy person.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darién_Gap
http://theroadchoseme.com/shipping-across-the-darien-gap-pt-...
If $110k is your take-home (after taxes), you are single, and your expenses are so low, it seems you could be saving quite a lot. I know many people with similar income and expenses, and they save tens of thousands per year. This allows them to spread savings across IRAs, mutual funds, and regular savings accounts to build wealth.
Perhaps like many who make a ~100k range salary, you pay upwards of 30% of it to taxes? This is a huge chunk.
You drive; are you sure you haven't spent more on gas than you have on dental? You mentioned dental as your third biggest expense in the last two years. This seems unusual. Gas, food, and other common expenses often make up for a large portion of total expenses.
If your medical and dental expenses are that high, that's unfortunate. But you say you have some decent savings, so good for you! That shows you have the financial strength to make it through tough medical situations :)
If you have more savings than most people you know, maybe you shouldn't be feeling so pressured. Most people aren't "making it" because they have no savings--but you are!
Having debt is a common reason for feeling financially stressed. If you have debt, see a debt counselor or financial advisor and create a plan to get rid of it, fast. They may advise you to use a chunk of savings for eliminating debt.
You say you eat out "some of the time". Most people I know say that, and they mean "at least one meal per day". This is not good for your finances! I personally increased my monthly savings by 50% once I limited my takeout to once per week, cooking the rest of my meals myself.
Lots of times it helps to have a financial advisor. If you do this, spend plenty of time finding a good one who you're comfortable with, who listens to your concerns, etc.
Bottom line: track down where that $110k is disappearing to! You should feel comfortable at that salary. Especially over time, as you save and build wealth!
Hope this helps, or at least gives you some ideas.
I feel like I eat out less often than most other people I know. I budget for restaurants and stay within my budget. I buy lunch from a cafe or restaurant daily during the week, and eat out for dinner maybe once a week. I thought I was doing pretty well until I got my credit card statement summary for 2013.
Almost $7000 on restaurants / cafes / etc.
My fifth biggest category of spending (after Rent, Aggressive Car Payments ($1000/mo), Savings, and Healthcare, in order).
Take a look at Matt Yglesias's The Rent Is Too Damn High (http://www.amazon.com/dp/B0078XGJXO); many "fun" municipalities like Seattle have restricted development to the point that housing is extremely expensive. If you move from Seattle to, say, Houston or Dallas, you'll probably see your effective rent shrink by 35 – 50%.
Secondly: see Tyler Cowen's books The Great Stagnation and Average is Over. Those books are too sophisticated and deep (though they're quite readable) to summarize here, but the shortish version is that Western economies are undergoing a lot of profound shifts driven by a combination of technology and Baumol's cost disease.
in the last couple years have been rent, medical, and dental in that order
Alex Tabarrok's Launching the Innovation Renaissance is also good: regarding medicine and dentistry, part of the issue is Baumol's Cost Disease and part of it is the powerful lobbies that restrict entry into those fields through licensing regimes and other means.
Finally, a general note: be wary of any answers in this thread that don't cite any sources and ideally those sources should be books. The issue is too complex for simple answers, and the simple answers that one tends to hear also tend to be wrong or missing a lot of important information.
Something I'd like to understand better is why capital (and not labor) is capturing a higher share of firms' overall income than in past years. As I noted in my reply, the decline of savings means this is a double-whammy for people, as they get hit on the front end with lower upfront cash payments, and on the back as well, when they don't share in any upside of corporate profits, due to no share ownership.
Actual capital - machinery - has taken it as hard as has labor. This leads many to think that the increases may be closer to rents than profits. It's also harder to say what the effect of online is; for people under ... what, 25-30?, "likes" on the Internet act as a form of currency that may verge on real currency at the edges.
Right. If you don't own a car already, you would almost definitely have to, and your job options in the $110k range will put you on an oil rig if you have a master's degree in mechanical engineering, if you can even reach that.
My ex father in law made about $110k at 60 working as a geological consultant for oil companies.
Basically: job opportunities are not the same.
Disclaimer: I am a Texas native. I speak with a lot of knowledge about many municipalities where most of the people I have known in my entire life have lived. Even the rich ones are poor.
Your argument that medical and dental costs would be lower if we didn't restrict entry based on licensing is alarming at the very least. Had I read that first I probably wouldn't have responded, but I've already typed, so, bleh.
Also, making $110k in Texas as software engineer is very doable without working on an oil rig. Of course, salaries vary a lot when you start factoring in benefits like healthcare and 401k matching.
(1) People aren't saving enough [1].
For the past 50 years, Americans have come to expect their employers and/or government will finance their retirement, healthcare, unemployment, and other major dislocations, so personal savings became something one did with windfalls, but not on a regular, life-or-death basis. (My grandparents are fond of tellling me that in their childhood, people were "poor as church mice" before Social Security)
But these commitments are being tested as people are living longer, massive healthcare inflation is occurring, and the birth rate is falling, causing the ratio of wage-generating members of the US economy to constitute a shrinking portion of the population relative to retirees.
This also creates a problem because financial gains drive pensions, and absent capital accumulation, "normal" people (pensioners) can't participate in the upside of higher corporate profits and/or interest rates.
(2) Wages are stagnating. I don't know why this is happening, but suspect it's due in large part to globalization, in particular, better communication technologies being used to substitute cheaper labor for what was previously only available locally.
The decline of labor unions might be a good thing for owners, but it's unquestionably bad for wage-earners.
Also, more and more jobs are getting automated as technology gets better and better, which reduces the demand for unskilled labor.
(3) Major across-the-board inflation. Healthcare, fuel prices (which directly affect the cost of driving, flying, shipping, food production, pretty much everything), education costs, higher tax rates (Cook county, IL, where I grew up, has over 10% sales tax, a 5% state income tax, plus federal taxes -- not inflation as such, but it does have a big effect on depleting purchasing power), food -- EVERYTHING is costing more. "Six figure" incomes just aren't what they used to be.
I think the combination of no pensions + higher healthcare costs + more taxes (largely to fund government-sponsored retirement funds, not provide broad-based services like education/public works) + inflation is making 120k feel like 80k or less, it's just not that visible because in nominal terms, wages aren't going down.
[1] http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/07/11/Gui...
Medical and dental can be really pricy. So can big city rents. Last I checked, an SRO in San Francisco was $1000/mo or more. Most areas, higher average income correlates quite closely to higher local living expenses.
So I wouldn't be so quick to judge.
SRO was $1250 for me in SF when I was slumming it a couple years ago. That's a shared bathroom and shower for the entire floor.
Let's say his rent is $1,000/month, if that's the biggest expense then rent, medical, and dental together won't be more than $3,000/month. That's a ton of money for basic expenses, but easily doable on $110k/year with plenty left over.
I think you may have missed my point as well: being financially insecure as a single man making $110k/year is weird, and has to be due to individual circumstances (whether bad luck or bad planning) and has nothing to do with the economy as a whole.
But, when it comes down to it, I see absolutely no reason for you to dismiss his question simply because you think he has a personal problem. Whether he has a personal problem or not, there are things wrong with the big picture. I don't think it is a less legitimate question just because the asker happens to have a high income. It seems rather ass-holish to reply at all if you have no plans to talk about the thing he asked about and are merely taking this as an opportunity to talk trash about him as an individual.
Of course, that's just my personal opinion. Lots happens on HN that I don't like. I don't run the place, so whatever.
Carry on.
He's making something like twice the median income of the US. Whatever his financial problems are, they're not remotely representative. Since his question is based on the assumption that his woes are due to widespread problems, I think it's entirely relevant to point out that they are not.
If he's actually in proper Seattle and not the surrounding area, the nearest affordable housing might be dozens of miles away from where he works, increasing his transit costs considerably.
Health insurance keeps getting more expensive, and if his plan isn't great he might be shelling out thousands of dollars a year to hit his deductibles, especially if he's not in great health.
'Sounds like a budgeting problem' is missing the point, which is that the set of unavoidable expenses - things you have to pay - keeps getting bigger and bigger, but incomes for a big chunk of the US don't grow quite as fast as that.
As I wrote elsewhere in this thread, Matt Yglesias's book The Rent Is Too Damn High is good on this subject; increasing rent is not some law of nature but a result of development restrictions in many metropolitan areas, which got started in earnest in the '70s and the results of which are getting worse every year with population increases and rising returns to knowledge creation (see Steven Berlin Johnson's Where Good Ideas Come From and Edward Glaeser's The Triumph of the City for more on both).
If you analyze the ongoing costs of maintaining our urban environment, vs paving everything in the first place, you see that it's easy to pave more than you can afford to maintain. That's us, and it's not just pavement, it's a whole lot of things.
I like this blog / podcast for talking about how we can avoid making decisions like the ones that got us here: http://www.strongtowns.org/
Things really were better in the 60's and 70's from the point of view of how everyone was doing, what they could afford and with how much effort spent to afford it.
Also, if you're a tech guy living in a tech area, cost of living is probably higher than average. And the US has expensive health care, thanks to, until recently, stubbornly refused all attempts to socialize it.
http://www.leftfootforward.org/images/2011/05/Government-spe... (United Kingdom)
http://multiplier-effect.org/files/2012/10/Eurozone-Governme... (Continental Europe)
Yup, that's some real bone-cutting austerity right there... </sarcasm>
There's no actual debate on whether or not austerity measures were implemented. They were, and the governments of said countries brag about it, or are pressured into it. And suffer for it.
Here are some basic problems I see with economy:
1) Rent: When people are paying half their paycheck to rent a studio apartment, there is something seriously wrong. The monthly rent in most areas is more than 1% of the property value, which is insane. Why pay $2,000 per month to rent, when you can buy it for $1,500 per month mortgage which won't increase every year and will build value towards your equity. In India, most people own houses or spend around 10% to 20% for rent; despite the property being far expensive than US. Example: it costs $500k to $1 million to buy a 2 bedroom apartment in Delhi, but you can rent it for $600 to $1,200.
2) Healthcare: Our healthcare expense in India was less than $500 per year (without insurance). It is more than $20,000 in US, and we are still held hostage by medical practices and insurance companies. Examples: wait 3 weeks to schedule an appointment with your doctor; $this is not covered by your insurance; pre-existing conditions.
The drugs I bought in India for $10, costs $200 in US; there are drugs created by Indian pharmaceutical companies and sold to US pharmacies for $1 (they still make good profit on it), but it is sold for $100 in US. The prices are artificially inflated so high that it is not affordable by 99%, so they are forced to buy insurance. This isn't free market economy, this is extortion by monopoly; there should be no place for middle man in healthcare.
3) Banks are designed to screw consumers in every possible way and suck every penny out of your account. It's is not much different in India; just the amounts are lower and banks are regulated by Government.
3) Service & Utility companies: most people pay around $100 per month phone and $100 per month for cable. In India it costs $5 per month for cable, and most people pay between $5 to $15 for phone. Moreover, there are no draconian contracts and service is much better; phones work in remote villages and even in lower basement of concrete buildings. It is silly how a company's 'Terms of Service' can hold consumers hostage and even super seed the law.
4) Consumerism: Americans are obsessed with credit cards and buying everything they can't afford. Why does a minimum wage worker spend $100 a month to buy an iPhone when there are prepaid Android alternatives available for much less? Why do people making $30,000 to $40,000 buy BMWs and $2,000 purses?
2) Get a new healthcare plan through Healthcare.gov. The out-of-pocket maximum is $12,700 for a family plan.
3) Find a credit union, no fees, no shenanigans.
4) Call around and get a deal, my phone plan is $65/month and my cable (25mb internet + digital 'starter' TV) is $65/month
5) Agreed.
Typically, the rent is covering an existing mortgage + taxes + insurance + maintenance + profit. If the mortgage were higher than the rent, the building owner wouldn't be making any money renting it out.
Given the ability to grow the housing supply, there is typically a fixed return for a property. That return will be split between capital gain and rent. Rent no longer covers the mortgage because it is the total return that determines if it is a good investment. There are also the tax benefits of renting out a house in some locations (maintenance and insurance would be deductible).
When we rented out our house, we were told that the typical return on capital was 8%, where 2-3% would be capital gain, and the rest in rent. We priced our rent at 5% to get a quick rental. Mortgage rates in that location are 6%.
If it is hard to gather a down payment, then rents can exceed mortgages because renters cannot easily swap between the two.
2) How about the cost of Insurance? Let's add that to the expenses as well. Thanks to Obamacare, we are now able to get healthcare; Insurance company previously denied our treatment due to pre-existing condition despite charging $1,500 per month.
3) I am exploring that option, but most people still use big banks.
4) Of course, I got deals. I own my phone outright, and pay $50 per month for pre-paid data plan. My 50 mbps internet + digital TV (mid-package) is $55 per month. No contracts. But most people are still paying $100 for phone and $100 for cable.
Which provider are you with?
The biggest problem with the us economy currently is the erosion of middle class jobs for unskilled and semi-skilled labor. My grandparents lived comfortably on union jobs. Most of those jobs are gone now, and those that exist are paying less all the time. I know a man who is 60 working in a lumber mill making less then he ever has in his life (40+ years of factory work).
Yes sure consumption has increased with affluence but Many people don't realize how hard it is for an unskilled and unconnected person to find any kind of work. I know some Iraqi refugees who could not even get agriculture work because the Hispanic population always filled any open jobs through network effects.
The only jobs that exist for unskilled labor are service sector, fast food &tc. These may pay enough to survive in many places but it will not be comfortable or secure.
Second biggest problem is the rising cost of healthcare. 15% of GDP and growing, more than half of that is government paid (medicare / medicaid / etc). My father is self-employed so purchases his own healthcare, but there is no out-of-pocket maximum for him so when my mother was diagnosed with cancer there was a massive financial cost despite 80% being paid by the insurance company.
There are other problems as well, but those are the biggest cause of financial insecurity and lower lifestyle quality among the bottom quintile of US citizens.
Edit:
Fewer hippies after I had composed my rant. Re: rents. yeah they are bad but really only outrageous on the coasts. So depending on your location the rent can kill you, but in my hometown it was never a big deal.
I wish the focus of the US public discourse was less "how terrible is it that these unskilled people can't find jobs" and more "how can we provide economic stability to these unskilled people and help them become skilled"
Even with all of that, I've got a healthy buffer in my budget, which is currently going towards a rainy day fund, and will be redirected toward loans after that. Within 3 years I expect to have a big buffer of money that I don't think I could manage to spend.
So it sounds like the problem is either: you aren't living frugally by reasonable standards, you're leaving something big out (dental ranks on your biggest expenses?!), or you have such astronomical standards that I can't ever see you being satisfied.
Income guarantee/Job guarantee, lower taxes, and infrastructure programs would serve to proactively increase income to the domestic sector. The political will -due to deficit myths- to do what is required doesn't exist.
A trickle at first but then like everything else the practice got optimized.
So the upper-end mostly survived. The low-end is being stepped on harder and harder to squeeze more profit out of labor, any way they can.