I fear it might prove to be premature. Take for instance Japan Power Plus. If their battery tech proves to be true, then in a few years lithium batteries will be on the decline, and Elon will be caught holding the proverbial bag. Even if Japan Power Plus proves to be a bust, there is so much research going on in the field that it seems all too likely that some major new battery tech is around the corner. If Elon can't convert his Gigafactory to that new tech, he'll be hard pressed to recoup his $5 billion.
Agreed, battery manufacture is bulk chemistry. A plant typically consists of a number of recyclable elements and a bunch that are specific to the technology employed. If there would be a game-changing advance in battery technology and the economics would work out in favour of deprecating those parts of the plant that are specific to the current process then I'm sure Elon Musk is capable of doing the math.
And given that's he's not exactly stupid to begin with my guess would be that he's ahead of some random comment on the internet by some significant number of brain cycles, 5 billion $ cap-ex projects are usually not planned and executed without a great deal of fore-thought.
Battery & battery replacement cost is a big piece of ammo for people who fight non-combustible automotive energy sources, so fantastic as always.
I'm interested to know what sort of contributions Musk & Co have been able to make with regard to battery efficiency and longevity in their time with the Tesla line. That, to me, is the big missing piece to take things from "sure, it could work" to "ok I'm ready to switch" for many.
Why not Detroit? The labor force is there, the costs (real estate, labor, taxes) must be considerably in favor of something of this scale, and it's in line with the automotive industry. In that Michigan is hurting from the down slide of traditional auto manufacturers, I would think it would endear Tesla to the industry, or at least the workers.
As others have mentioned, Just In Time production capability. If you're in Reno, you're ~3 hours away via roads. If you're in California, you're even less time from the vehicle integration facility.
Tesla doesn't need to endear themselves to the workers; they use robots wherever possible. Detroit is home to powerful organisations (the unions) which are famous for their resistance to automation; that, if nothing else, is probably sufficient reason to steer clear of it.
On a side note I hope the folks at a16 will stop using Tesla as a poster child for their belief that full stack startups are strategically better. Tesla and Musk are constantly working with other players in their ecosystem to accelerate growth.
I listened to the Tesla conference call and Elon Musk said that he was calling lithium and nickel mines in Canada, and they were surprised to hear from an end user. The guy knows how to "think from first principles."
I still do not see any advantage to skipping over Texas, even Toyota went there. They are simply more business friendly, let alone by far the largest deployment of wind turbines in the US. While many associate it with oil Texas never really sat still, energy is energy.
My guess is because you can't even BUY a Tesla in Texas. Why would they set up a $5B factory in a state where they can't even sell a car? http://www.teslamotors.com/advocacy_texas
EDIT: Amongst other reasons of course, just a guess on one factor. Hard to say it's business friendly when they've banned the company from doing business there.
No one seems to be paying attention to the amount of toxic waste that will be generated from batteries after they are done with their usage. The toxin waste is much worse than letting CO2 in the air IMHO.
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[ 1.9 ms ] story [ 57.9 ms ] threadAnd given that's he's not exactly stupid to begin with my guess would be that he's ahead of some random comment on the internet by some significant number of brain cycles, 5 billion $ cap-ex projects are usually not planned and executed without a great deal of fore-thought.
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/05/the-or...
I just cannot fathom Elon being in this scenario. Perhaps I'm too optimistic?
I'm interested to know what sort of contributions Musk & Co have been able to make with regard to battery efficiency and longevity in their time with the Tesla line. That, to me, is the big missing piece to take things from "sure, it could work" to "ok I'm ready to switch" for many.
Battery form factor: http://youtu.be/pQupELupKWM?t=2m15s
Apple Engineer asking about Tesla battery: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sN5HT9mj_4M
EDIT: Amongst other reasons of course, just a guess on one factor. Hard to say it's business friendly when they've banned the company from doing business there.
That depends upon whose business to which you're referring.