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Way too much simplifying, what if: 1. Web app got same performance as native. 2. There would no be a feature gap (e.g. payment access to hardware).

We already see that web apps are eating native on desktop, where both 1&2 are not that important.

>We already see that web apps are eating native on desktop, where both 1&2 are not that important.

Are they? I don't think they are. They are mostly used for stuff the desktop wasn't used for much (social, buying tickets and products, web radio and video etc).

In traditional desktop strongholds, they haven't made much of a dent. (One exception is email -- they have taken over email client apps).

For example, even though Google Docs exists, less than 1% of global users use them. The vast majority sticks with MS Office, iWork and the like. Same for image editing. Almost everybody does it on the desktop or on native mobile apps.

Most kind of CRUD apps gone online (e.g. accounting, CRM, any business software). A huge category, especially in business.

Video/music? We used to have cd/dvd + desktop apps, right now the web is a huge percentage (e.g. Netflix, YouTube).

Images? Yes, the professional will stay with native apps, but consumer often just have online galleries.

Office? Have you seen Office 365? Going web. It won't happen overnight, but we see shift to web.

You're right that desktop action has considerably moved to the web (though certain professional tools like IDEs and graphic design haven't really penetrated despite numerous attempts so far).

But - you say "we already" like mobile is next, just around the corner. Well, mobile apps and mobile web have been around for 5+ years, it's felt around the corner for some years already, and hasn't happened yet. On (1), web performance is indeed improving a lot, but on (2) that's kind of the point of the article, that features like background processing aren't happening for regular websites. If they do, then yes, it's one of the things that will help mobile web apps catch up.