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While the games may be declining, I think they have led to a resurgence in people willing to try to play real instruments. I know a number of people who play these games who have been inspired to take up real instruments. It would be interesting to see the impact these games have had on the sales of real guitars and drums in the marketplace.
It may have an impact on drums but not on guitars. Playing guitar on Rock Band and playing guitar in real are totally different things. But playing drums on Rock Band gets you to learn how to associate a body part to a seperate rhythm. I know I've improved in drums while playing Rock Band.
Which makes me think an input device that allowed you to put hit switches on an actual drum set would be fun, cheap, small, and fix the aversion to a plastic drum set.

You can buy a used drum set and guitar off craigslist for less than it takes to buy an Xbox and Rock Band.

Totally agree. My son can play every song on expert and I always razzed him about never playing my real drums. So, yesterday I suddenly hear some amazing drummer beating the living shit out of my drums and was in shock that it was him and not my other son who plays the real drums all the time. If you want to learn how to play drums, I don't think there is a better way.
But playing guitar in Rock Band can make you want to learn real guitar, regardless of whether you've actually built up some skills yet.
I would argue with that. Granted Rock Band Drums, and singing, is a much closer analog to the real thing than the guitar, but the fake guitar is not completely useless for learning to play real guitar. I've played guitar off and on for about seven years. Rock band guitar has to some extent improved my sense of rhythm. I would also imagine that a beginner could improved his left hand(fret hand) dexterity and flexibility somewhat. Not enough to play bar-chords but maybe enough to play scales and cowboy chords without hand cramps.

Not nearly the real thing but not entirely useless.

Agree 100%. Playing rock band drums is essentially the same as play practice pads.

I remember going over to my parents house one year...my sisters asked me if I wanted to play with them. Naturally, being a drummer, I sat down at the drums (and then went to my car to grab some no-crappy sticks...and into the garage to steal the drum stool from my old kit that is still sitting at my mom's) and chose "expert" mode.

My sisters laughed and told me, since I had never played the game before, that there was no way I would be able to do it, and to choose something lower so we didn't just fail the song...

They were...kindof correct...it was harder than I had anticipated, but I still finished with a pretty respectable score.

The hard part about playing the drums on this game is that, as a drummer, the rest of the band follows you. It's really frustrating to have the machine tell you that you're off with you're rhythm, haha.

One mode I really wish they would add to the game is...like..."free play". Assign a sound to each of the drums and treat the kit like a midi controller. I know people that already do this in their home studios (although as more of a novelty than anything else) and they actually work :).

Point is: rock band is a really fun game, and playing the drums in it is very similar to playing the drums in real life. Doubly so if you've ever done any work in sequencing software. Playing rockband is like what I used to "see" as I was playing the drums after spending hours and hours in a sequencer.

Rock Band actually has this feature. I believe it's called "practice mode" or something.
As someone who played competitive Guitar Hero...

It's not that it's "Doomed." It's that it got really, really popular all of a sudden, and that spike is dying down. Rhythm games are a genre that's lasted quite a long time. It's not going anywhere anytime soon.

Agreed. This post is overly dramatic. Genre fads come and go, and the rhythm-action genre has seen a good long run with very, very little innovation(you could even say "reversal of innovation" given that the current crop of games actually tend to have fewer gameplay features than the Bemani games of seven or eight years ago.)

In a few years or so, I'm sure some developer will come up with the answer for reviving the genre. Until then, we have other things to play. It's that simple.

I think you're right. My supporting observation: I can't seem to find reasonably priced used controllers on craigslist.
To be fair, the controllers are usually of pretty shoddy quality. I've broken, repaired, and re-broken almost every piece of GH and RB equipment I've owned.
I would love to hear from everyone who has loved, previously loved, or played any rhythm music games. Our startup JamLegend.com is focused on innovation in the space and have a couple of ideas. Would love to get your honest feedback on the industry in general (your favorite games) or on our site. Rant here or feel free to email me at Andrew [] jamlegend.com

Completely agree with Steve though that rhythm games will be around for a while and there is still a lot of room for innovation. GH sales have dipped, but that's why they're expanding their game selection.

Andrew, I love jamlegend, but until the Flash hiccup bug can be solved once and for all, it really throws a dagger in my rhythm-playing abilities.
Andrew:

You're fighting a losing battle with the "spontaneously generate beats based on a user-selected tune" thing. A part of what makes rhythm games fun are how cleverly each song is programmed. I've tried Dance Factory and AudioSurf, and they are simply no fun without a guiding creative hand.

I disagree with this article on one point. In my experience the casual gamers always want to either sing or play drums and get easily frustrated on guitar. I think that rock bands appeal was that it is cooperative rather than who plays guitar better, dances better, or sings better like every rhythm game before it.
I've always felt there is a huge, untapped gold mine waiting in these games: the ability to upload your own songs and have them automatically converted to playable tracks in the game.

Of course, this relies on two things:

1. Automatic conversion actually being feasible.

2. Record labels allowing this to happen.

Somehow 1. seems more solvable than 2.

I think you heavily underestimate the skill and creativity involved in creating a note-chart which is fun to play.

1. may be solvable, but you'll end up with something vastly different from the note-charts we have today. A bit like the difference between randomly generated dungeons in Nethack (or Pokemon Mystery Dungeon :) and a regular RPG.

Not underestimating at all. But it seems like it could be solved. Maybe a hybrid auto/manual tweaking approach is the answer? Or perhaps users could requests songs be converted by the creative team and/or pay for individual tracks? I'm not interested in buying song-packs, but I'd pay $1 for any given song.
Anyone hear of Guitar Rising? http://www.guitarrising.com/

In short it's Guitar Hero, except player use real guitars instead just mashing on buttons

Unfortunately the project looks dead. They haven't updated their site since 2007.

On a brighter note, there is an open source piano version at http://www.synthesiagame.com/.

Despite being rather simplistic, it's a damn good concept. I've never played an instrument before and can tap out a half-decent Jingle Bells in a few minutes, and it's quite good fun. I'm sure it would be even easier if it had more features like a metronome.

It's a bit of a shame the guy doesn't get VC money and a proper development team together to develop the product, because I think it really is the future of learning to play the piano.

The GH-style of rebadging and re-selling retail games will definitely decline. As will the epic bundles. (They already have, really). And the wisdom of 'Rock Band"-as-music platform will prove itself.

The biggest real risk I see for the genre, is DLC DRM. If there's a major platform upset next generation, I think a bunch of the biggest Rock Band fans are going to suddenly realize the value of their Rock Band library just tanked.

Sure, they can keep their old console to play Rock Band 2. But they'll still be pissed. And that will translate to fewer future song purchases.

I hope Harmonix is thinking through a solution that problem. Because it will happen.

One possible future I see for the series: migration away from the consoles. Just buy Rock Hero, plug it into your TV, plug in the instruments, and play.

You aren't limited to four instruments (except perhaps by screen size, but that's becoming less and less of an issue). A song could use as many of each instrument as it needs, and probably some other instruments (like keyboard) that aren't currently provided. There's no expectation that a given song will use all the available instruments.

Perhaps the publisher strikes a deal with the RIAA, and all newly released tracks get a version for RH that you can buy and download.

the game is declining, but it made boatloads of money in the process. I think it will just make those branded games like rockband metallica or rockband aerosmith, but for a smaller audience and still make money.