Poll: How long could you survive without income?

218 points by jacquesm ↗ HN
Hello HN. I've been spending the last couple of weeks reading as much as I can on figuring out the right balance between what remains of my life (I'm very close to 50) and how much money I should save up. I have been self employed for the vast majority of my career and have always aimed at providing for my own pension rather than to have some external party take care of that (because I don't like to give that kind of control to institutions that I really do not trust and that lack transparency).

So I've been saving like a squirrel over the years and even though it's been adding up nicely I never could shake the feeling that it wasn't enough. I also do not have a disability insurance (it is absolutely un-affordable where I live).

Suppose all your income streams related to work would dry up tomorrow and you'd be stuck with withdrawing from savings or living off the interest / dividends of your money or investments (technically of course also a source of income), how long could you survive?

(reminder that a vote in the poll is not a vote for the poll!)

150 comments

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Survive? As in how long till I would die of impoverishment?
I guess the OP means the time it would take to run out of cash while keeping reasonable monthly expenses ("reasonable" would be slightly lower than they are now for you).
Is mere survival enough? Or do you mean if I maintain my current standard of living?
Maybe some belt tightening but nothing drastic.
I own my house. Does this include selling it or only liquid savings?
For this poll, I'm assuming it means liquid savings, although you could use a reverse mortgage to live off the equity if you had a plan for when the equity was exhausted (use the last of the proceeds to live on a boat 30-40ft in size off a mooring ball somewhere warm, which costs next to nothing).
"proceeds to live on a boat"

As an older guy who was into sailing and boating as a youth, possibly the only positive effect of the hyperinflation in housing prices / "housing bubble" is spending $5000 to install a toilet has gone from an insane outrageous expense to "you got a pretty good deal compared to what home depot wanted to charge". And the permanent long term decline in wealth/income means what used to be "middle class" sailboats are getting really cheap, what with the decline of the middle class. A used 30 footer used to cost about 4 of my dad's new commuter cars in better economic decades, now its less than the cost of my commuter car because the buyer pool is drying up.

The old line about a boat being a hole in the water you throw money into doesn't sound so bad now that houses are an even worse "investment".

I'm 31 and my long term plan is to live on a the water on a 40-50ft sailboat. Sure, I'm going to spend at least $100-150K on it between purchase, retrofit, etc, but that's less than the purchase price of most inventory in major metro areas. I can anchor off the coast of most of Florida or SFBA, or pickup and head anywhere in the world. I can even take a tax deduction on the interest as my primary residence.

The economics have definitely shifted in favor of that scenario, something I wouldn't have imagined 10-15 years ago.

I have a friend who is living on a house boat in DC. The marina is on the Potomac downtown. It's at least as cheap as a studio apartment if not cheaper.
Marinas usually charge $500-600/month for a slip (maybe a little more if you live aboard), but there isn't any need to be at a slip if you have a wind generator, diesel generator/engine, or don't require constant shore power and fresh water.
What happens if a storm wrecks your boat and you need cancer treatment? These are the things that retirement needs to account for imo. Everyone can live on wellfare and ramen indefinetly, but when the fecal matter hits the rotating air moving device id rather have the cash to stay alive a few more years.
1) Boat insurance (inexpensive)

2) Health insurance (moderate to expensive, depending on my income and available subsidies). Or possibly seeking care in a country with a real (i.e universal) healthcare system. Cuba is in the Caribbean, and fairly accessible by boat.

You can't plan for every scenario; if I have terminal cancer I'd rather die surrounded by family and friends then exhaust my retirement in weeks or months to extend my life <1 year.

Storms don't wreck boats when you live on them.

Life is more complicated when have contract jobs or live on land, but if you retire on a boat, you simply move out of the way. If you have a couple days warning, hurricanes simply aren't big enough.

Boats are destroyed in hurricanes when the owner is freaking out about his house on land, or frankly, insurance scams. So some hull insurance won't pay out in tropical waters during hurricane season. So don't go there or get a different policy.

You can run into sudden squall issues, that is true.

One thing to think about is it might not be 10% cheaper it might be 75% cheaper. Even if you had to buy a completely new boat every decade because it sank (unlikely), it still might be cheaper than living on some land.

A couple of days ago I met a 60-ish year old man who did just that. Sold his house, bought a 30 footer, found a nice place to anchor it along a small (pop. 700) fishing community in the state of Rio (not the big city, somewhere around 100 miles south of it). He used to sail 30 years ago, so he can go out a bit, but uses the boat mainly to live a nice, simple and cheap retirement.

  "proceeds to live on a boat"
This fits you perfectly ;)

Actually, I've been designing my own small cabin[1]; nothing fancy, solar panels, a decent cooker, pellet stove heat etc... And it occurred to me that the thing would fit perfectly atop an old steel work barge. I never thought about living in a houseboat, but considering how little I'd have to spend for land use, it seems like a good idea.

I just need a bit of extra space for supplies and I'm good to go already.

[1] http://eksith.wordpress.com/2014/08/02/cabin-progress/

Keeping the same standard of living? Am I allowed to move and adhere to government programs?
I currently could only hold for 3 months but that's because I invested all of my savings in a company that crashed. I'm slowly rebuilding my savings now...

A word of advice for anyone who wants to start a company, do not go into debt doing it. You'll regret it.

Is there any other (realistic) way of doing it though?

EDIT: I added realistic, as not just anybody can get venture capital or have rich friends/family willing to invest a little.

Is there any other (realistic) way of doing it though?

Yes: go slowly but stay within your means.

Whether this is a good strategy depends on the nature of the business and the people involved with running it.

Organic growth.
Yes, and if you really need investment to grow faster, do not necessarily take it out of your pocket, seek investors, it's important to plan for the potential failure of your startup.

Being broke and in dept, after your startup failed and you closed, it is not a good situation to be in.

I'm going to recommend you head over to https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance and https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence.

Emergency savings to live on should be 6 months to 1 year, depending on how easy it is for you to find work, and for retirement/voluntary reduction in hours worked, you'll want to plan on having saved up enough that you can draw 4% of the retirement savings every year; at that burn rate that should last until death.

Don't discount social security if you're entitled to it. You may not receive full benefits, but you will receive something. I suggest http://www.ssa.gov, calculating your benefit, and then reducing it by 25%. That takes into account the chance that Congress won't top of the SS trust fund with general tax revenue when the trust fund is exhausted.

Hmm I could live a year off my savings, but shouldn't you be insured? If I lose my job tomorrow I get 3500 USD/month for a year. I pay 10 USD/month for this insurance. (Backed by the government). Don't you normally do it like this in the US? Where I live all people get an insurance like this. Or is this pretty much the same as social security?
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> I pay 10 USD/month for this insurance

In EU it can be easily 1000 USD/month. Compulsory!

r/personalfinance is useful but maybe a little too starter and repetitive for op's stage. r/financialindependence is better but not that active. I'd recommend bogleheads.org where a large portion of the community is approaching or in retirement and also the mrmoneymustache forums for frugality/advice on making the money last.
Why does SSA.gov need a bunch of personal information, then ask how much you made last year and base its estimate entirely on that single number?
It receives your earnings information from the IRS, as your benefit is determined by credits earned, which is determined by your income during set periods of time.
The SSA (Social Security Administration) is concerned about the quality of their records, and in general want you to double check them against what you think is correct.
more than 3 months, less than a year. It would depend on how much warning I had and what time of the year it was. If I was given warning before May I could plant a larger garden than normal and get more livestock so that food would not be an issue. I have enough savings and liquid investments that I could cover other costs comfortably for 9 months.

If my income dried up tomorrow then probably only 3-6 months.

Of course there's always a lot of contingencies in questions like this. In my case I could fall back on trade skills pretty quickly as they are always in demand in my area and thus would have an income of sort though probably less than half of what I make as a developer.

Savings is useless. The idea is to try and outlive your savings. It's a race to dying before you're broke. Real estate investment is the key -- passive income steams, then you don't ever have to worry about money again.
I agree with a part of this. I live for today. Although I would have issues if I lost insurance coverage and something happened. Otherwise I figure I'll start saving and planning after I get my pilot's license.
The poll talks about investments as valid sources of income (unrelated to "work"). If this is your case, then you can choose the "forever" answer.
Savings are useless now because interest rates are low. Investment is the key, real estate investment is one type of investment, which carries both high risk and high reward potential. There are many other investment vehicles available, and most people should pursue a diversified portfolio of investments.
Diversified portfolios are the common suggestion of financial gurus, but in the Great Recession I doubt any of them lost less than 25% if they beat inflation beforehand. (That is, they weren't so diversified after all.) I don't put much weight in their recovery since then, given the near-free money available from the gov't.
At my current standard of living: 2-3 years but if I moved somewhere cheap sold my car and doubled down on beans and rice: 5.

Side note:current liquid savings: 16000.

You spend a total of 500 dollars a month and you don't live somewhere cheap?
No I spend ~700 a month but about 100 of that is insurance and gas which is entirely me going to and from work. I live in Austin TX.

But yeah I know some college towns where I could get down to 3-400 a month with out too much deprivation. And I could probably get a grand out of my car.

Which okay is more like 2 and 4 years I guess. Although I'd be due at least some tax return and a couple paychecks+unused vacation if it was me quiting to pursue the great american novel.

Rice, beans, ramen, potatoes, etc. There are many inexpensive foods that can keep you alive. But you have to buy in bulk, i.e. 50 pound bags.

I think you would also want supplements, vitamins, etc.

Plus I think that while your body can theoretically make all the protein it needs from rice and beans, I think you'd also need to have fresh fruits and vegetables in your diet. I certainly wouldn't want to risk it without those. And unless you grew your own, they would probably cost more than the rice and beans.

But you shouldn't need to buy meat, which is comparatively very expensive.

In my case I have a part-time job, and study full-time. Everything I earn just goes to gas and food. There is no savings in my case.
i've only just got myself back into a position where saving is possible. so only a few months
If you're 65(ish), the answer needs to be "the rest of your life."
A little less than 3 years (which is the same amount of time I've been working full-time) if I give up the rent for my apartment and get a single room in the same city (Padua, Italy, for the sake of information).
Are we including cashing out a 401k/IRA in these results?
Here's a problem that makes it difficult to answer. I make money off my brain. One way to totally cut off all possible labor income would be a massive stroke. But massive strokes are kinda expensive.

If I don't have a stroke but perma-lose all income (uh, why?), I'm a pretty smart dude and will find ways to live rather cheaply. Can I spend 4 hours a day in my garden and 4 hours a day fishing as long as I don't sell the proceeds for cash? Move the family into mother in law's basement, and go all viking on the wilderness bringing in produce and hunted/fished animals? That might stretch me out quite a bit, like until I have a medical incident or my clothes wear out?

If I do have a stroke, I assure you my uncle-in-law's assisted living facility would drain my savings dry quite a bit quicker at the $8500/month facility he is currently at (actually Alzheimers not stroke, but its the same argument in the end). He will soon be going state aid, then again hes a couple years older than his brothers and sisters who died of unrelated causes, so who knows. But as a young-ish dude my family would go bankrupt in only a couple years, best case perhaps. This is assuming no unpaid medical bills (well, sorry we don't cover that particular thing even through we say we do in writing, and yes that is a valid charge that we do cover but we were hoping to fool you into not noticing and paying that, all stuff the medical industrial complex is famous for).

Worst case I guess would be having a stroke the day after medical insurance expires due to no employement/income stream. Then it would be insta-bankrupcty of course.

Both my parents have had strokes and this is definitely on my mind a lot these days. My mom when she was in her 50's, my dad early 60's. My mom made a near total recovery, fairly incredible given the state she was in at one point.
Well, this is a bit difficult because I'm not sure whether or not you're talking about maintaining your current standard of living or not.

For example, I have enough in my savings account to maintain my current standard of living for 6 months. I have enough in an investment account to maintain another 6 months after that. So I answered 1 year.

However, I live in an apartment in Manhattan and pay $2400 a month in rent. If I were seriously hard up and didn't see any good prospects for finding employment in the future, I could move to Oklahoma or Nebraska or somewhere super cheap and find a place for less than $600 a month, which would extend my savings at least another 6 months (depending on when I decided to make the move).

I'm also 20 years younger than you and have only recently started investing (in the last 5 years).

Looking at my own retirement plans, it's estimated that I'll need about $1.8 million in savings to retire the way I want. For most people, the number seems to be between $1-2 million. So if you're wondering if you've saved enough for retirement, I'd judge it by those numbers.

Also, at your age, I'd suggest talking to an actual professional that can help you plan for retirement. Companies like Fidelity have people who can help you compare how much money you have to how much money you'll need, and also help you figure out how much money you'll need based on your expected lifestyle.

Probably going to get downvoted, but I am in Manhattan too, we should meet up sometime!
I am in nyc as well! Hit me up if you like - qbix.com/about has my email
Obligatory: Mr. Money Mustache[1] is a software engineer that retired on $800k, so it's possible to retire on less than $1M.

The investment rule he cites is that if you have 20x your annual expenses saved, you can live indefinitely off of the interest adjusting for inflation.

1. http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/

Depends. Am I going to continue on my current standard of living? Then it would be two years. I could go on much longer without a car, some memberships etc., so with a slight reduction in comfort it would raise to about 8 years. Eating cheaper stuff, selling the house, canceling my monthly donations and so on would be a big ouchie, but then it would be a dozens of years.
1 day, if you mean having a place to sleep.

I have 30 dollars, and desktop PC and phone I could sell. I'm 25, never had any income.

I live with parents, so they would have to kick me out of the house.

A few years ago I took 2 years off and drove Alaska->Argentina.

Right now I'm gearing up to drive a 2 year lap of Africa, then Europe->SE Asia, then likely a lap of Australia/NZ.

Should be ~5 years without any income, and my savings will cover it nicely.

That's so cool! Are you blogging about your travels? I'd love to do something like this in the next few years.
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totally cool man! Wanna be like you someday
You should add 6 months. Its the commonly suggested minimum.
Yep, I was looking for 6 month as well.
I have zero savings. I live on a tight budget. I have just reached the position of being able to save a small amount of money and I'm working on better frugality.

But if my income stopped tomorrow I'd be homeless and hungry real quick.

I used to see recommendations of one fifth of your income for safety and one third of your income for comfort. That was a long time ago so things might be different now.

8 months off of my bank accounts, then another 4 years 3 months from less liquid non-retirement savings. That's assuming current lifestyle with no vacations or capital purchases like a new computer. Realistically I'd probably move to a cheaper apartment at the end of my lease if I were still unemployed then.
My personal savings pillow is rather large compared to my expenses (20+ years on a good standard), but I would not want to count on it to spend my golden years. Money (even large sums) can be gone really really quick. Every self sustaining elderly person I admire is doing it on renting out paid off property. If you can aquire a couple of houses/flats in your lifetime before you stop working taking care of those alone will let you live really well and also provide for the next generation.
This is oddly relevant to me right now.

I'm a freelancer, and a scare came up yesterday where one of my main income streams was about to dry out... just after going through a summery dry spell and just before the obligatory Christmas dry spell.

So, currently? A month, but considerably less once UK tax time comes in January.

(In case you're wondering, I've got a couple of more smaller income streams sorted, and as of an hour ago it turned out the main one might not be that dry after all.)