Ask HN: What was the job market like during the dot-com crash?
With all the talk of us being in a bubble lately, I've been wondering:
What was it like for developers when the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000's? I didn't start coding until after that, so the job-market I've always experienced has been one of ever-increasing demand. How different was it then? And how did you make it through?
What were job-prospects like? How were your wages affected? Did recruiters simply cease to exist? More to the point, what advice do you have for developers who want to be well-insulated if/when the next crash happens?
Thanks a bunch
166 comments
[ 2.6 ms ] story [ 249 ms ] threadBy the time I graduated in 2001 my cohort were taking jobs at Staples selling computers so there's that. Many people were getting into graduate programs to wait out the downturn. I am not sure how this affected minimum education standards for new hires down the road.
I did OK but there were some lean times.
If you didn't have every single acronym in the job req and 5+ years of experience with each, the employers simply were not interested. Things like, you'd used Eclipse but not IntelliJ disqualified you because IntelliJ was requested. Some job reqs even requested more years of experience in some technology which had only been around for half the time mentioned.
Sending 100+ resumes a week without any callbacks became the norm. Recruiters could simply sit back and wait for the resumes to come to them. If you weren't actively looking, no one would call you.
Enterprise market was essentially the only game in town. Any kind of web dev just died overnight. I managed to start and finish a masters degree before things got better again.
For me, it was Websphere or Weblogic. I had worked with Oracle's enterprise Java stack & plain old J2EE. One interviewer asked me why I was even brought in for an interview.
I remember one that said "Websphere only. Don't even think about applying if you've used Weblogic!"
Some of all of it was in caps.
You made it through by being versatile. Not by starting to learn while you were job hunting, but being prepared when jobs were aplenty.
You had to be ready to be employed in a non-VC funded world, doing boring things.
I liken it to today, where you have an abundance of 6-week boot camps and developers writing code against the sexy Javascript framework du jour. Those developers will starve if we hit another period where VC dries up.
Learn some boring stuff, even stuff that gets laughed at on HN. .NET. Java. In places like Houston, there's TONS of jobs, but they're not in Rails or Clojure or Angular. They're in .NET, writing apps for big oil or healthcare.
Though it wasn't as big then, I think learning dev-ops will really take someone far when no one's writing Twitter aggregators or social networks for quadcopters.
tl;dr When times are lean, boring languages in boring companies that make real, not VC, money is how you stay afloat
Perspective is a funny thing. I started in the enterprise and was there through the bubble (excluding a brief stint at a startup). I then went on to found my own company some years later.
Anyway, it somehow never occured to me that people actually depend upon the startup ecosystem continuing to thrive, and would feel absent options without it. I mean, I guess it's obvious, but I suppose I just hadn't consciously considered that it really implies "startups as a career".
So, it's somewhat hilarious for me to read someone musing that maybe they should "learn enterprise".
I'm also not in SV or another startup hub. So, I'm sure it's partly cultural as well.
I'm actually still in school. So, I tend to muse over learning a lot of different things. Your life story was really neat though ;)
But, I'd say, yeah...get you some "enterprise" while you're there, especially if they're offering it for the same price. ;)
Glad you enjoyed my life story. Happy to share.
I never said that. The GP was specifically talking about enterprise Java and .NET, which was what I meant.
I guess I was being overly terse, I apologize. My phrasing seems to have bothered you. Doctors recommend people your age nap frequently to avoid these kinds of passive aggressive mood swings.
You'll be just fine in the morning. Good luck!
New suggestion, though. You should spend your time in school learning how to remove your prejudice. It's pretty bad, and will hold you back more than not learning a particular language will.
P.S. Just to be clear, I was bothered by your ageism.
Knowing how to be graceful will spare you a lot of future pain in your career as well as your social life.
However, the way you phrased your criticism was very polite, yet firm. It drove your point home in a self evident kind of way. It's got me thinking and I appreciate that.
There's a world of difference between having a fake personality and learning to politely and gracefully interact with others even when you really don't want to. Those skills are far, far more important than anything technical you will learn in your CS classes.
That's the real skill to master, especially amongst the smug closeted egomaniacs in the programming world. But as a normally blunt person, it all seems a little silly(and very insincere) to me.
I'd suggest reading it. The protagonist struggles with "fake" throughout the whole book. Might give you some perspective.
Theres nothing wrong with being a bit blunt and direct, ageism is well beyond that threshold.
The end of your second point fails to address the comment you responded to, I was addressing an entirely separate issue about how this community (and to a lesser degree, the programming community) chooses to communicate. Specifically, how it fails to actually remove flaming, trolling, rudeness, and arrogance. It merely wraps these things nicely in pseudo intellectual packages.
Anyways, I wasn't defending my (purely spiteful) "ageist" comment, nor do I intend to. Although, I keep getting baited to address it, so here I am. Rest assured though, while I may never transform into a different gender or race, I will certainly age. I'm sure one day, when I'm older, someone on the internet will say a rude, politically incorrect comment towards me, and I shall weep with regret and understanding.
For what it's worth, I do think there's way more utility in differentiating oneself by having opinions one believes in, vs trying to be a crowd pleaser (which really adds no long term value to anything). Now the onus is really one oneself to make sure that those strong opinions are right, of course. :) Kinda like on HN, having a differentiable and unique idea/product/startup is way better than all the me-toos, as long as the idea is actually any good. :)
Consistency is one of those things that people try to figure out all life. I personally respect those who are clear in taking a stance even if I don't agree with them -- they've found their niche. The alternative is someone who's trying to play short term efficiencies and please everyone -- all they say are words everyday, words that carry no weight or meaning behind them.
Pardon the jumbled metaphors and all that. :)
PS -- Being mindful of what you type on the internet, just like being mindful of what you say in real life, is helpful in being genuine. Specifically it's to understand what other people are trying to say, and also understand the ramifications of your own words. And as you exercise this mindfulness, it'll become second nature and become a skill.
PPS -- re: gracefulness - just remember the downside value of a comment is not 0 but negative, and the expected value of a comment is not necessarily positive.
There's an entirely different philosophy out there from the startup "push code to production on your first day". That of (lowercase) solid engineering practices where production releases are major events that require lots of interactions, checks and planning. It teaches you an awful lot. Safety critical industries, and many financial companies after Knight Capital, are good places to learn this kind of discipline.
It was very different. At the dot-com's that I was at, web servers and application servers were Red Hat Linux, and only the databases were Sun boxes, with E4500 being a high end box. At a post-IPO dot-com there might be one E6500 and maybe a few Sun E4500's, and lots of Red Hat machines. At the investment bank they were all Solaris on the Unix side, and had dozens of E6500's in my city, and hundreds of E4500's. The investment bank had admins in the OpenBoot PROM all the time, whereas I had barely been in it. The investment bank was always replacing disks in the hundreds of external RAID arrays they had whereas only our database had a large external RAID array. They used NFS extensively and you had to know it thoroughly. My knowledge about Red Hat Linux, Apache web servers, Java application servers etc. didn't amount to much.
It was qualitatively (and quantitatively) very different, and in interviews it sounded like I didn't know what I was talking about.
On the developer side, the bureaucracy is very different. If a minor change in a software package is being pushed to New York, London and Tokyo, which often it is, you might have five meetings about it, and the code push might take weeks or even months. No matter how trivial the change. Three different divisions might have to sign off on the change. It's definitely not an agile code process, with code going from your fingers to the production web/app within the week.
the whole devlop on a mac book when the actual production systems are linux makes me wince.
I did not stay in enterprise for long. I like mainframes, but I hate the culture of big companies. I next helped founding a university, and when tired by ivory tower, I left uni to fund a company to focus on machine learning for industrial applications.
So, most important advise from an old sack: stay flexible, and dont be surprised that old skills in solid technology might be worth good money at the moment when the hypes end.
Did you know that Open Firmware has its own theme song?
https://web.archive.org/web/20060111132138/http://playground...
http://everything2.com/title/The+Open+Firmware+Song
Sung to the tune of "The Flintstones"
I hacked FORTH with Mitch Bradley, the father of Open Firmware, as a summer intern at Sun in 1987. I love OpenBoot PROM, and his 32 bit 68k/SPARC Sun FORTH system that it's based on, which was derived from Langston and Perry's Forth-83! He also developed a version of it used in the OLPC XO-1. http://wiki.laptop.org/go/Open_FirmwareFor production slated machines, we were usually running commands such as "copy-clock-tod-to-io-board", nothing too creative.
While I was there, the Sparcstation 20's reached end-of-life and we were allowed to bring one home (I still have it). At home I had gotten ADSL through a reseller that had an odd routing setup - they wanted the MAC address of my desktop so that they could assign an IP to it. I guess I should have gotten a hub that could do NAT, but I gave them my Intel PC MAC, and then went into the SS20 OBP and changed the MAC address to that of my PC. It worked too, both machines got ADSL. Actually what I wound up doing is doing NAT with the SS20, after I swapped out the PC ethernet card with a spare one lying around.
That's what happened, and many of them then ended up as estate agents.
Last job involved C# and it was good, and dynamic (pun intended)
The pay was certainly not poverty level and the required skillset was pretty achievable.
Keep in mind, besides the dot-com crash and then the sept 11th attacks, the real macro environment of the early 2000s was outsourcing. Everybody believed you could just hire a team in India or Russia for pennies on the dollar. It would take another 5+ years for that trend to reverse as companies recognized the challenges in moving their development resources off-shore.
As I stated, I responded to the off-shore movement by switching to a less-affected industry (aerospace/defense). Most "market corrections" really affect the most vulnerable segments of the job market: entry-level and near-retirement.
By the Spring things had definitely changed. First lots of hiring freezes and then offers to friends rescinded. (A few lucky ones got paid 50% to take a year off.) I think most of the offers I had were for projects that were likely killed since they didn't add anything to the top line. The did a round of layoffs where I was joining in the spring before I started. I remember anxiously waiting at my college apt to find out if I was unlucky. I wasn't affected, I believe primarily because I was "cheap" compared to the people making 2x or more than me they chose to let go.
I felt very fortunate to land on an interesting team doing real product development; others I know who graduated in 2002 had no option but the longer path through customer support / non-tech jobs for a little bit.
Not starting work in 1998, I've calculated, cost me me somewhere north of $250k in wages (over three years, this is Europe I'm talking about). It would have been exhausting but the company that hired me in 2000 would have hired me in 1998 and allowed me to work on my thesis on the side, and of course $250k would easily pay for a year's sabbatical afterward. Even better scenario would have been work until 2001, get fired with severance (usually not optional in Europe), then finish degree, miss the worst of the downturn.
Very frustrating to work among people who make double or triple you do just because of the time they were hired (this was a consultancy firm, more than relatively basic development skills were not required, or usually not even wanted). Very frustrating to come to the realization I finished my education at pretty much the worst time in 2 decades, and just how big the difference was with a more optimal choice of when to study.
Oh well, maybe the people in this thread are right, and I'll get the chance to get another (related) degree. Or maybe going for a full phd. I am planning to do that sometime in the future, definitely, I guess maybe it'll be next year.
It was terrible and the university was raising tuition each semester because of the decreasing state budget, weak endowment investment returns and alumni contributions. Some were going to wait out the job market by going to grad school, but didn't know how they were going to pay for it.
The main downside was that smaller companies kept going out of business (which is why I had so many jobs in that time period -- two of those companies disappeared entirely, one of them taking a month's worth of salary with it, which super-sucked).
A key thing, though, is that lots of really, really, really marginal developers got hired in the late '90s -- I worked with some of those at the first company that went out of business -- and they very possibly never got a job in the industry again. Crashes make companies a lot more selective, just as bubbles make them hire any warm body who can possibly even theoretically write code.
I think they also took it as an excuse to suck even more at interviewing. Since the pile of applicants was practically endless, you could reject people for any damn reason, and nobody would call you on it. At one point somebody was telling me that their standard interview question was "draw me a house." And if they picked up the pen without asking follow-up questions, that was a no-hire. I think that was also around the time the manhole-cover questions started taking off.
One of the big challenges was that large companies were the only place to get hired - the few startups that were around were often zombies leftover from the dot-com times; it was clear they weren't going anyplace, and (perhaps exaggerating slightly here...) nobody was starting anything new. Keep in mind though a lot has changed in 15 years - it took a lot more capital for infrastructure in those days so there were fewer companies starting up anyway.
For people my age and older... we saw the pre-dot-com slowness of the early 90s, we got caught in the dot-com downturn, we got caught again in the post 9/11 downturn, then we saw our house values melt down in 2008... so as far as I'm concerned, in good times be painfully frugal and stash cash because the bad times are just around the corner...
I remember a friend getting me an interview at a finance company specializing in the growing subprime mortgage market. In hindsight, I'm glad that one didn't pan out.
2008-9 was actually worse... that was the first decline in revenues and it combined with changing climate toward outsourcing with our government clients.
In US companies; this shift looks good on the balance sheets and helps stock prices. Because employee cost is a different line item than consultant costs.
I believe the economy is picking up when my business takes a hit.
[All said with the caveat that my interpretation of events could be completely wrong]
When the crash happened, I started to get calls from developers who wouldn't take my calls a year earlier. Many had a few jobs within a short period of time. I remember placing one guy three times in two years due to closings.
Many recruiters couldn't generate enough revenue and subsequently left the market, which was actually a good thing because the market had become flooded and needed a purging. Salaries came down a bit, but candidates at this point would put very little value on stock options. Options went from being looked at as a large piece of the package to being considered the equivalent of lottery tickets.
To be insulated, I'd encourage you to try to become 'known' in your space. Those with solid reputations and networks were always employed, even if they bounced around a bit.
At one point you see these things, pink slip parties.. fascinating stuff. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pink-slip-party.asp
Anyway, we're not in a bubble, so don't worry. :)
2) I did take a pretty dull "and stressful for being that dull" job with an insurance co. as a senior developer after the startup (probably closer to 'small biz' at that point) I worked for had a major restructuring. The dull job did allow me to focus a bit more on some other freelance/networking opportunities.
3) As a few have noted, the biggest thing afterwards seemed to be the outsourcing wave. That plus the sudden glut in the market seemed to nearly wipe out entry level opportunities. There was a period of time where I (being only 6-7 years out of college myself) don't recall working with a single new graduate.
Now, while it was terrible for B2C, government consulting was booming. It wasn't the sexiest of work, but it was a good four years of my life.
I just wonder what would have happened if I could have grabbed the money and then go to school during the crash instead... Perhaps it wouldn't have made a difference.
I submitted 45 applications. I ended up with two interviews. It took me 4 months to get my first job. I was being paid about half of what I was making as a high schooler in 1998.
In the end it was one of those strange blessings. That company ended up being a fledgling Quickoffice which launched me into my startup career.
Still, it was quite tense at the time.
Think also about Paul Graham. Y Combinator is a case of him monetizing a reputation that he earned (and, yes, he actually earned it) by standing up for startups in the depths of winter. I, for one, plan on making a strong and vocal case for Real Technology (it shall rise again) after the Snapchat/Clinkle frivolity blows up and humiliates the current cool kids. Being able to explain why shit went to hell ca. 2017, as it will, is going to help us make a case for building something better in the next iteration.
That said, it was a bad time for entry-level salaries, and graduate school admissions were ridiculously competitive in 2003-05. If you had a $60k offer (that'd be $72k today) you were in the top third of CS graduates, and non-STEM graduates were lucky to see $40k. I'd guess that the more experienced engineers didn't see a massive salary drop (maybe 10-20% at worst) but it wasn't a good time for job hopping. Certainly that feeling that one could get a 20% raise, just by walking across the street, died out.
It was a good labor market for finance because there was a lot of cheap talent. First-year Goldman Sachs analysts were only in the $60-65k range. (Bonuses could be 50-100%, but they were also working 60-110 hours per week.) Undergrad quants (that's rare but the positions exist) were generally getting $80-90k offers.
People expected housing prices to come down, but they didn't decline by much because there was this other bubble that was building at the same time...
Like today, salaries in the Valley were about 2x salaries elsewhere. In the Midwest, I saw entry level devs getting $25-30k until 2002 or 2003.
This was true in my experience as well. I applied to grad school for 2004 and heard lots of crazy stories from programs about high applicant numbers and quality. I ended up at a "hidden gem" versus a top program. A couple years later I re-applied to PhD programs and got accepted everywhere.
In today's markets it's a little hard to believe that people would be flocking to grad school due to a poor industry market, but it seemed to be the case across science and engineering fields. I'm sure that influx also made the bad academic job market even worse, unfortunately.
1) There are industries like health care and insurance that have traditionally been good places to hang your hat during a downturn. If you can learn about regulations, trends, and domain-specific tech in those fields, you will always have a job.
2) Both in the dot-com era and more recently, there were loads of people who entered the industry because they saw dollar signs. If a downturn hits, many will be quickly weeded out because they won't have put in the hard work to round out their skills and portfolio, or thought about their long-term career progression. You can avoid being pruned by planning ahead and taking action now to make sure you've got solid credentials.
That job search took months. Without a degree or professional experience, I didn't hear back from anyone. Which really stunk, because back then you had to fax your resume and my local Kinko's charged something like a buck a page. I was stocking the sci-fi section at Borders and reading computer books at night.
There was nothing like today's open source community, no sites like Github. It you couldn't point to a commercial product you built, you had no business claiming you could program. Recruiters wouldn't even talk to me.
I got a job at a company that hired pretty much anyone and sent them to a two-week BASIC course and made them web programmers. Literally, the guy who sat next to me drove limos and had zero exposure to programming before taking the job. But they could bill for his time by the hour, so...great! You can read a bit about my story and the technologies I worked with there in my three-part blog series "Pick is a living fossil of computer history" https://davidmichaelross.com/blog/a-living-fossil-of-compute...
Once I took that job doing Pick, I heard from recruiters at least once a week...for Pick jobs. Again, unless you had a job with a certain technology, you couldn't get a job with that technology, because there were 20 other people with more experience willing to work for the same crappy entry-level wages.
The early 2000s were much the same until I dropped $1000 of my own money on a Java certification and suddenly I was getting calls about Java positions all day long.
My advice? I hate telling people to build up a Github profile because not everyone has the luxury of coding in their spare time. But that's one of the most visible things you can do to prove your knowledge of different technologies. Be glad you have it, and use the heck out of it.
Save up money so you can go for months without a programmer's salary. You might need to.
Accept that you might have to take a job that's not very interesting of glamorous. But never take a job in a technology as old as your parents.
Actually it felt great. Like a return to the basics.
And by "diversifying your skill set" I don't mean just being proficient in more than one area, but also being perceived as being proficient in more than one area. This is probably hard to do without switching jobs. You have to sell yourself as being "good at both A and B" during the interview and only then will the perception take root.
Incidentally, this was a double-edged sword for me, since peoples' perception of me being a designer (I had merely added a couple art samples to my resume) always seemed to pull my career in a less technical direction than I wanted to go, partly because I stayed at the same company so long.
Also, the "dot com bubble" makes it sound like it happened all of the sudden. Lots of smart people thought things were fishy by 1998. By 2000 everyone was convinced. Just because some people are talking bubble now doesn't mean things are going to fall apart next month. Make hay while the sun shines. And be careful about car leases and mortgages.
1999: "The dot-com lifestyle", everyone is an HTML/Flash developer. 2005: Flipping houses, adjustable mortgages - Mini Donald Trumps abound.
2015 seems to be lining up to be an energy industry crash.
Get in, while the gettin's good