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I wasn't sure what to expect after seeing the title. But I will admit, the author makes an interesting point about how <spoiler alert> Microsoft could "embrace and extend" Android <end spoiler alert>.

But: I personally don't see that happening. Even if Microsoft was able to influence the forked versions of Android, how would that help Microsoft's bottom line?

And at this stage, how much damage could they inflict to the real Android, which is now running on almost all smartphones except those from Microsoft or Apple?

The PC industry in the late 80s was a competitive marketplace, and there were real competitors to Microsoft's business till it basically took over the PC market. I think the mobile industry has pretty much entered that phase now.

The big problem with Android is the lack of updates for popular phones. Love it, or hate it, cyanogen does address that.

More significantly, manufacturers have tested the waters with cyanogenmod devices -- oneplus one, Oppo n1, Micromax's Yu Yureka. I for one would be more likely to buy a cyanogenmod supported phone than a 'touchwiz', 'optimus' or "Windows 8" phone if I was assured of two year updatability.

And how would this help Microsoft's bottom line? Android... with Bing.

Not only Bing but Microsoft could roll out their own api-equivalent to Google Play Services in order to support third-party apps developed with a dependence on the Google ecosystem.
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For popular devices, the bottleneck with Android updates isn't really the resources to develop them, it's the carrier certification process. You can see that when the same device gets updates on some countries/carriers and not others. CyanogenMod doesn't address that, it just evades it via unlocked bootloaders and flashing. The more official they try to be, the more they will run into the same problems.
Why is carrier certification a thing? The carrier supplies a SIM card and as long as the device cna properly use its antenna and the SIM card the carrier should not need to do anything else.
Among other things, 'carrier certification' also includes installing 5-10 apps the user will never use and adding restrictions they deem fit. Plus, the certification is to make sure that the device updated doesn't bork the phone's service (or so I'm told, no experience in that industry)
I really don't want Microsoft to start controlling Cyanogen.

I like it the way it is - with Google services and apps!

> While Microsoft Office for mobile is a satisfying success ...

Are there numbers supporting this claim? A cursory search revealed no publicly released usage statistics

It works. It's a little bigger and slower than Drive apps. But not bloated. There were a couple oddities like OneDrive having a separate account. But nothing that would turn me off. The free version had not been crippled. Microsoft appears to be serious about monetizing via their ecosystem and are not holding back on features. The UI is clean and truly "touch first." Microsoft did a great job.
I am just one data point, but: I am pleasantly surprised at how nice the Office 365 Android apps are. OneNote (a separate install) is also worth trying.
I made the switch from an Android Sony to a Lumia 530 this Christmas. Apart from the LCD TN screen the Lumia is easily the best phone I've ever had at half the price.
You can't make a statement like that without qualifying it. Why is it easily the best phone? What do you use your phone for?

I know I very rarely use my phone for phone calls. For me, it's all about apps and the capabilities those apps have.

My own phones have all been Nexuses. The reasons being that I consider Apple fascist[1], and Android is the only alternative with the combination of lots of apps and a way of replacing both launcher and default applications with third party apps.

As far as I know, Windows Phone's launcher can't be switched out, in fact I just did a quick search and it seems like not even the default browser can be replaced! It looks like Windows Phone is almost as restrictive as Apple, except with fewer apps. How would that make for a better phone, never mind "easily the best"?

Now, I'm no fan of Google, and I don't like the direction they're taking Android in, cutting down the functionality of AOSP, and dragging more into their proprietary apps and libraries. It's just that Android is the least worst choice right, now, as I see it.[2]

[1] Controlling, capricious, patronizing, "do it our way or get lost" mentality; and a brand that is a magnet for narcissists everywhere.

[2] MS primarily cares about money; it's copying Apple because it sees Apple making money. But Apple doesn't care about money; it thinks it's better than you, and it attracts people who like to think of themselves as better than other people, with more discerning taste in expensive status symbols. Making lots of money is a side-effect of Apple's strategy, because it's harnessing a narcissism latent in modern individualistic consumer society. MS's strategy won't work because it's not appealing to narcissists. Google, meanwhile, is following Microsoft's 1980s strategy to Apple's 1980s strategy.

I'm not the OP, but I am a Windows Phone user, and I love it. Obviously, it may not be your cup of tea, but it has an appeal other phones don't for me.

First, I don't think MS is "copying Apple". Using Live Tiles is a very different experience than poking at icons on the iPhone. And MS isn't marketing to "narcissists" -- the best selling Windows Phones are all at the very low end of the market. The fit and polish you can get on a low-end Windows Phone are absolutely phenomenal. I bought one just to play with because Amazon had the Lumia 520 for $29 during the holidays, and got hooked on the platform. Now I'm buying a slightly higher-end model and passing along the 520 to a relative who is still using a flip phone.

As a developer, there are a ton of opportunities on the Windows Phone market. It's relatively small, but the key word there is relatively. There are a lot of open niches and a userbase that is hungry and appreciative.

The Nokia HERE apps are amongst the best mapping apps out there, and until recently they were only on Windows Phone. I've had two high end Lumias -- the 928 and the Icon. I still use the Icon as my phone when traveling to put a third party sim card in as well as a camera now and then.

My primary phone is an iPhone. It has the apps. It mostly just works. However, an interface of "a bunch of icons" or "a bunch of icons in folders" is a really tired interface.

I'd like to see better innovation from the UI/UX on the iPhone, but we really don't get much beyond a flatter theme. (this is not to take away from all the advancements happening under the hood).

I'd like some combination of the Windows Phone interface with a blend of features from IOS and Android.

Actually, both Google and Apple are copying Microsoft now. I mean "Material design"? C'mon, come up with something on your own!
Whats in Material design related to apple products ? I couldnt understand the connection between two.
It's an exhaustive topic; presumably your parent was ready to respond to specific queries but not write a full length piece.
> I know I very rarely use my phone for phone calls.

This trend bugs me to no end. I call a lot, I need a really robust, integrated phone app on my phone.

This is precisely I moved away from iPhone to Xiaomi after years of being with iOS. iOS 7 dumbed down the phone app so much, it was unusable for me. Xiaomi on the other end, is probably the most powerful phone for calling purposes that I've used, one click call recording, seamless conferencing, speed dials, auto-detection of which number I use of a particular contact most often (and the one I used last time, right with search results). It is so powerful, meanwhile iOS 7 did away with search using keypad. In iOS 7 and beyond, to make a call, I have to peep into my 2000+ contact list.

From what I know, Windows 8.0 and 8.1, too, has fantastic feature rich phone apps.

Hi, Here is what I like: It was $95 in New Zealand. It has a quad core processor. It comes with Office. Live tiles and they way you can move then and resize them is just nice. The OS only takes up 2.2 GB Other apps seem to need much less space, like about half the space and they can be installed on an SD card which I haven't even got because I don't need one. I'm a C# programmer by day so there's that too.
I too like my Lumia more than any previous phone I've had.

Unfortunately there's one key problem which means I won't be getting another one - I have no way of getting an offline copy of my phone backups.

I didn't realise for a while after purchase and it's not such an issue to make me immediately want to get a new phone, but I refuse to relinquish that control by choice.

Nasty regression then. On my lumia 800 (wp7) I could do offline backups to my computer.
Nokia branded Windows phones have a custom Lumia backup app that doesnt work on anything else. M$ has _NO BACKUP API_

"Cliff Simpkins (Sr Product Manager, Windows Developer) responded:

Currently, the platform provides a number of SMS Access from a system eventing perspective (as of Windows Phone 8.1), and Windows Phone supports sms backup/restore for consumers as part of the base OS (Settings Backup). What we don’t provide is a backup API."

The only backup offered is in form of Outlook cloud, there is no way of retrieving your backup from the cloud, you can only restore into another windows phone device. If you happen to have non Lumia device and want data you need to first backup to cloud, then restore into Lumia branded phone (that you bought/borrowed for the occasion), and then backup again using Lumia proprietary backup app that lets you store locally. YAY M$

I owned and loved a Lumina for a short period also: my issue was that tethering with OS X simply does not work on WP 8.1 (at least on the Lumina 1320), for this reason I moved back to iOS, but damn that phone was great (battery life, performance and WP 8.1 is a /really/ nice OS). All for about a third of the cost of my iPhone.
> Perhaps they’ve been looking in the wrong direction and can return to their “trusted” Embrace and Extend tactics.

Does he refer to the despicable practice of "embrace, extend and extinguish"[1]? It's one of the most disgusting stains on Microsoft's reputation (along with their lock-in and standards hijacking practices). I'm surprised author even suggests to do that as something acceptable.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embrace,_extend_and_extinguish

Pretty sure he means just the embrace and extend bits.
The whole thing given Microsoft's history has a very sinister connotation. The author even puts "trusted" in quotes, as if hinting that one shouldn't do such a thing really.
Journalists and their "scare" quotes. I think people need to get over that period in Microsoft's history. To be honest Oracle, Google, Facebook et al aren't exactly angels when it comes to their own acquire and bury practices.
> I think people need to get over that period in Microsoft's history.

Are you saying they righted their wrongs in this regard? I don't think so. They are slightly better than before may be, but they have a lot of old baggage left. I can't say they stopped their lock-in tactics already and became friendly to open standards. Others have their wrongs as well, but the article is about Microsoft.

It is just how to world operates.

You are powerful -> you take measures to keep that power.

I don't know what all the fuss is about. It's the most natural thing. Did they take it over the top? Yes. Did the DoJ cut them in half for it? Yes. At this point I think it's hipster boys mindless repeating a mantra they haven't even thought about more than 2 minutes in their lives.

> It is just how to world operates.

It's not an excuse for such practices. Or one can use it to excuse any dictator as well. There is no "fuss". Such practices are straight despicable and unacceptable.

It certainly is. What's the alternative? Let the competition sink your company?
Alternative is to compete by making something good like all normal companies instead of being crooks. Normal ethical business as usual, you know. Unethical business practices have no excuse of "what else could we do?". If you couldn't do business ethically - go out of business.
If they don't do it, their competitors will.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Folk_theorem_(game_theory)

Eat or be eaten. I don't know what you mean by ethical. Ethical means a different thing to different people. You can subscribe to your notion if you operate a small business. If you have are in charge of a megacorp - there are other things to take into consideration.

That's as well an invalid excuse. Say, can you excuse one criminal for being a criminal because if not, another would be in his stead? No, this logic doesn't work.

Lock in is an example of unethical business practice. And it can't be excused with "if we won't engage in it, someone else will".

I frankly think that Microsoft more nefarious tactics have hurt them more than helped them over the long run.

Take the browser wars as an example. Bundling IE got massive share which then bred arrogance, stagnation, and lack of standards compatibility. That set that stage for IE becoming reviled for all of those things and the rise of Chrome/FireFox.

There was certainly a bad ride for consumers along the way, but the situation worked itself out. It probably would have had the same outcome even if the DOJ and the EU didn't get involved.

Full disclosure: I worked at Microsoft for eight years and left a couple of years ago. I'm typing this on Chrome on my Mac now.

Those tactics took them from being a big PC software company to one of the largest and most powerful corporations on the planet, that was just printing money under the "flat years" of Ballmer.

Are you suggesting that those tactics are so ingrained that they cannot be repaired? Sure ie isn't the thought leader, but who gives a shit when you are printing money like they are? I think the hipster chic only matters for growth, they are a dividend company now. They've shown an incredible resiliency and the industry is such that mistakes are costly. I just can't imagine counting them out.

> They've shown an incredible resiliency

Resiliency in crooked tactics is not a good trait.

I find it somewhat disingenuous when the CEO of Cyanogen makes claims about people wanting use CyanogenMod without the Google Apps. Look at any custom-built CyanogenMod roms out there -- every one of them includes instructions on flashing the Google apps.

The only company that has had any success with a forked Android is Amazon, and I suspect that's less about writing replacement apps (as I guess Cyanogen plans to do) and more about Amazon's existing massive market power.

Office for Android doesn't suck. That was a big missing piece.
But why is MS any better or different than Google?
If you've already bought into Office on the desktop, it's appealing to be able to have first-party support for it on mobile too, rather than have to deal with converting back and forth with Google Docs or some other non-MS office application.
For one thing, Google isn't fully back in China. They are putting together an ecosystem together with local partners, but Microsoft never left China. That's a big enough market to justify OEMs using Office on Android.
> CEO of Cyanogen makes claims about people wanting use CyanogenMod without the Google Apps.

You know, China exists; Google apps are blocked in an entire country that just happens to be the largest single country market for mobile.

> The only company that has had any success with a forked Android is Amazon

That is definitely not true. Xiaomi? Anyone selling Android in China (which excludes Amazon)?

As you note, inside China is an important special case, but outside China, Xiaomi includes Google apps. For that matter, even plenty of people in China want Google. There's a practically a cottage industry of hacks to get the Play Store on Chinese devices (including a shady app in the Mi Market, I believe).
The situation is totally artificial: most Chinese would love to have Google on their phone if the gov would allow it. But given the situation, it should be no surprise that some of the biggest consumers of Cyanogen are OEMs making phones for use in the PRC market.
Exactly. That demonstrates the fundamentally unstable foundation of Chinese non-Google Android. China might decide to interfere with the non-Google services being used (I suspect that's more if they come from a foreign company like Microsoft), Google might negotiate a new agreement or something else might scramble the playing field (China taking a hard line on device encryption?).

  > Look at any custom-built CyanogenMod roms out there
  > every one of them includes instructions on flashing
  > the Google apps.
Doesn't mean that everyone installs them - my Cyanogenmod is always 100% Google-free.

That said, Microsoft has long been banned from my systems and Google more recently - so when compulsory Microsoft binaries start to appear in Cyanogenmod, it will be time for me to part ways.

but I think its going to be easier (easier, not easy) and cheaper to do a android fork and provide dropping replacements for all google api's than developing windows phone.

Its not easy or cheap to fork android, but I think microsoft is one of the few companies with the resources to do it.

Microsoft is adopting the "Services, not devices" (or OSes) strategy envisaged two years ago (http://stratechery.com/2013/services-not-devices/).

Under Ballmer, Microsoft had a brief identity crisis, trying to be a vertically integrated company like Apple. It is clear that Satya Nadella is taking Microsoft the other way to become a horizontally-integrated company like Google (http://stratechery.com/2013/understanding-google/)by open-sourcing .Net platform, to support competing platforms like Linux, releasing Office and Outlook on all mobile platforms (Windows, iOS, Android), focusing on cloud services, and deprioritizing Windows.

>>like Google

But in an ironic way!

Both companies are the foundations upon which the digital age sits, everybody runs Windows/Office and everybody uses Google search. MS and Google can do whatever the heck they want and fail often without consequence.

For "relatively small" values of "fail" .. like everyone else. It's just that "relatively small" for Google is still pretty huge in absolute numbers.

I bet Google too can't fail in crucial/major ways like failing keeping google.com online..

"...everybody runs Windows/Office and everybody uses Google search..."

Several years ago you could add "...and everybody uses an iPhone...". Well, not anymore.

I disagree, even if they sell a lot. The iPhone was far from common because of its high price.
This was actually on Darging Fireball just the other day,

> It’s true that Samsung passed Apple in smartphone market share years ago, but “the crown” was never Apple’s to cede. In the years prior to Samsung’s rise in 2010, Nokia led the industry, by far, in smartphone market share. RIM, too, was ahead of Apple until 2010.

http://daringfireball.net/linked/2015/01/31/chmieliewski-sma...

Each of those "everybody" should have a huge asterisks next to them.
I don't know why people would suggest that Microsoft fork Android. Windows Phone is by far and away the best experience i've had on a phone, and my Lumia 930 is the nicest phone i've used (after coming from a series of iPhones). Don't get me started on the Surface Pro 3, which is probably the most impressive device i've ever had.

Microsoft's devices strategy wont be clear until after Windows 10 is launched, I feel, and until a full product line is evident. And you'd be being very silly to discount them at this stage.

I feel like people on tech sites/forums experience observation bias because of, maybe, a tendency towards using OSX and Linux, and they seem to forget that Microsoft are utterly dominant in many areas. They've also entered new industries in the last decade and became dominant in short order too.

> I don't know why people would suggest that Microsoft fork Android.

I think the most obvious reason is lack of adoption, both by users & developers. There are lots of apps out there for Android & iOS. Microsoft has such a small market share and, in the eyes of many outside the Microsoft ecosystem, have little change of growing it. Meaning the cost-benefit for developing Windows versions of your apps just isn't there.

They suggest it because providing the best user experience appears not to matter much, sales-wise. People keep on buying Android and iOS devices no matter how good Windows Phone becomes.

In many ways Windows Phone reminds me of the rebooted Palm Inc. webOS provided a far superior user experience to iOS and Android circa 2008-9, but in the end "meh" hardware and limited carrier support weighed them down more than great UX could lift them up. Microsoft has more money to burn trying to break that cycle than Palm did, of course -- but on the other hand iOS and Android are far more solidly entrenched in the top 2 positions than they were seven years ago.

Yeah I get you with the Palm comparison, but I do think that the top end Lumia's are definitely not 'meh' hardware.

I recently purchased the 930, so I can see a way Microsoft can increase sales immediately, and you hit the nail on the head. Work with the bloody carriers, but at all levels other than distribution. I went to several mobile phone shops and every single one effectively said "don't buy a flagship windows phone mate, have a look at this cheap shitty mess of an android one". Send some bloody reps around, interact with carriers, incentivise them, and sales will immediately go up.