Heh, I decided to take a look and see if one of my darker hunches might be worthwhile:
"After technology, real estate produced the next largest group of self-made Forbes 400 members."
Yeah I get that real estate is a good business to amass large scales of wealth. From what I've studied about money laundering, real estate is the most advantageous method for cleaning up dirty money...I'm not accusing all of the self-made real estate moguls of money laundering, but I'd be suspicious that not all of them saved up their tips from working minimum wage jobs to get their start.
Historically speaking, Real estate would come out as the best bet for getting rich. Gold would be the next best thing. Real estate is also a very good vehicle to medium level riches.
And the best part of real estate like every other investment is. Most people don't realize how good it is until more than half their life is spent. At that point, the entry price of that arena is generally quite high and given all the family responsibilities and other expenses(Health, education and your own retirement) the level is prohibitive enough for most people to not even try.
This means people who make these investments early on in their lives(in their 20's) are best positioned to reap rewards from real estate investments.
Not minimum-wage, no. More likely a lawyer (or banker or doctor or programmer) earns $100k+/yr., invests in real estate, and ends up a real estate millionaire/billionaire.
When you look at the end millions, the initial few hundred thousand seem inconsequential, but it's a lot easier to get there if you can invest $100k/yr rather than from $5k/yr. (Saving $5k/yr while earning minimum wage is difficult. Saving $100k/yr. while earning $150k/yr., not so much--assuming all these earnings are after taxes.)
Yeah I thought that point was mean-spirited. Assuming she's a bright person she knows that a) A significant portion of readers would aspire to be Elon Musk and so b) By reading this overview you just disqualified yourself from becoming your idol. It wasn't necessary and struck me as an attempt to needle Elon followers. And saying "I too like reading this stuff" doesn't count because she doesn't aspire to be Elon Musk. BTW I agree with her point. I just think it makes her mean spirited or completely lacking in social nuance to state it and the post would have stood up fine without it. (sorry I read this a few days ago and so chewed it around in my head what I didn't like about it)
>>Choose one thing and become a master of it. Choose a second thing and become a master of that. When you become a master of two worlds (say, engineering and business), you can bring them together in a way that will a) introduce hot ideas to each other, so they can have idea sex and make idea babies that no one has seen before and b) create a competitive advantage because you can move between worlds, speak both languages, connect the tribes, mash the elements to spark fresh creative insight until you wake up with the epiphany that changes your life.
This is absolutely true. People who can competently live in two different "modes" definitely have an advantage over those who are residents of just one. Steve Jobs, for instance, brought together engineering and design/aesthetics in a way that got Apple noticed and gave it massive competitive advantage over their competitors, who were perceived as boring, ugly and unoriginal. He wasn't a master engineer like Wozniak, and he wasn't a master designer like, say, Ive, but he had a very good understanding and appreciation for both and that's what made him special.
As a side note, there's something about Ms. Musk's writing that really appeals to me. It's clear, concise, and creative.
You mean, Dieter Rams, of course. Ive, for all his talents, is a rehash of a master. If anything Ive is a great example of a multifaceted non-master who knew how to handle two worlds: the no-holds-barred big business world and the artsy design and marketing world. I really see him as a Jobs-like character. Jobs had Woz. Ive had Rams, indirectly of course.
Notably absent from the guidance is be ruthless in applying business principles for maximum effect because a lot of "memorable" success stories are couched in sociopathic practical application tendencies.
I like how she skipped the part where one of the requirements was: found a company during the dotcom explosion and sell out before it crashes.
Zip2 would've been a complete bust in 2003, and he wouldn't have had the funds to move on to his subsequent ventures. The guy obviously has a lot of great ides, but lots of people have great ideas. Without the financial backing... good luck.
Little luck is needed. All that is needed is a gap in the market, a human problem to be solved that people are willing to pay enough money for and it will be leveraged. Luck his nothing to do with it... except for the luck of being gifted with the right mindset to be able to pull it off.
The luck is in having the resources necessary to apply the idea. Many people can identify a gap in the market which could form a profitable business, but in order to actually build that business you need capital and connections.
Or the ability to make those connections to get the capital. All the stepping stones are there offering many paths to success, you just have to be willing to do the leg work to get from one to the next.
These "stepping stones" are not equally distributed, and not every jump will succeed. It is not reasonable to ignore the role of external factors in the practicality of achieving success.
also, having resources and being resourceful are 2 different things. Someone who is resourceful will find the resources. Someone who is not resourceful will settle with the excuses that they didn't have the resources.
Perhaps so, but lifetimes are not infinite. Even if every resource is theoretically acquirable by every person, what for some people would just be a trivial first step toward the ultimate goal would count for other people as a lifetime task in itself.
Which is one of the positive effects of financial bubbles - they create irrational local excess of cash that is largely wasted, but every now and again it begets a new life form that couldn't come to existence in a more rational bubble-free universe.
The smart person [like Elon et. al.] knows when to jump on the bandwagon of the bubble and jump off before the bubble bursts. Leveraging everyone else's wasteful behaviour for their own gain.
But he had the wherewithal to leverage his abilities at the time to get what he needed to continue. It's easy to knock this back as chance, but clearly he's shrewd enough to get where he wants to get. I take my hat off to him. Each of us has a unique blend of skills, talents, traits and personality. It is up to each of us to figure out how to leverage those to get what we value most in life. If money is what you're after, it's there for the taking, all you have to do is figure out how, if it's power, that's there too. Nothing worth having in life comes easily, it's hard work, that's a given, you just need to figure out how to get it - and that's the game that makes this life so interesting.
I'm sorry but it had wayyy more to do with chance than that. He happened to be in California in 1995 when the bubble started. He was of an age where he could take a chance at a startup rather than have a 9-5 job. If Musk were 40 with 3 kids and a mortgage and he had packed everything up to move to California to try to create a startup and make it big, I'd totally agree with you. The fact he was at the right place at the right time at the right age isn't anything that was under his control in the least (outside of perhaps choosing to go to Standford over other options available to him).
He wouldn't have done it that way. You're not looking at him with a wide enough lens. People who are rich aren't rich by chance. They're rich because they observe the way things are, they take the opportunities that are presented to them as they are able to take them. Sure, he was in California in 1995, he was in the position to take a chance at a startup rather than have a 9-5 he jumped on the bandwagon. If he were 40 with 3 kids and he was just as shrewd as he was when he got his start, he'd have jumped on a different bandwagon - perhaps the realty bandwagon, become a realtor, flipped multibillion dollar houses on loans and still got rich, or he'd have become a stock broker, made himself money that way and turned that into a billion dollars - who knows, the opportunities are endless. You've just gotta look at things in the right way.
Self made billionaires are opportunists. They are smart. They are shrewd. They look at the big picture. For every reason they're told they can't do something, they find a solution, they don't see obstacles as deal breakers, they're just speed bumps, irritations that need to be resolved/removed, hoops to be jumped through to get where they're going. They look for the next possibility and insert themselves where they need to in order to leverage what they have to get where they need to go.
So you see it doesn't have as much to do with chance as you might think. What was chance was the bubble occurring. But Elon making use of that opportunity when it presented itself was anything but chance, that was all Elon. He spied an opportunity and rode it until he was shrewd enough to get off the elevator... which is what he's still doing. Finding opportunity and leveraging it to make his next billion dollars.
This is an especially disingenuous characterization, considering he jumped through the hoops to immigrate to the US and go to California, which means he observed and realized that CA is where he should be and worked towards getting there (he's been very vocal about him coming to North America being one of the most important decisions he made and that he quite planned for it). He didn't happen to wake up one day in CA.
Yes, many people are luckier and they happen to be born in Silicon Valley to affluent parents, but the fact that most (almost all) of them have not achieved what Elon has achieved hints at a the use of a stretched definition of the word "luck."
> found a company during the dotcom explosion and sell out before it crashes.
you can say this about a lot of people... pg even, but paypal went public in 2002. i would argue he did the opposite, elon musk remarkably sold a company in the wake of the dot com crash.
Forgive me if that seems a bit snarky but her point is not "you want it" but "deeply thinking about the problem." And when you do that, and you discover that the solution you have to a problem seems to be wildly over valued with respect to your understanding of it, you sell out because you know that when the market stops being irrational that value will evaporate.
You could do like Pincus, found a gaming company and make sure you can pull out $200M on your own before the rest of the world catches up. Or Mason w/ Groupon. There is a lot more work than lottery in there.
It probably wouldn't have garnered as much attention, however, this appears to be a common sentiment of those largely considered rich and/or successful. It doesn't make the advice less valuable.
It says a lot about her that she answered so gracefully about her ex though. That garners a great amount of respect from me. So many exes are just bitter and eager to stick the knife in. It's refreshing to hear someone say positive things about their ex.
I am waiting for the billionaire that, when asked how they became a billionaire, says "Well I read an article/book by [some other billionaire] on how to become a billionaire."
Charlie Munger (Berkshire Hathaway) -- doesn't point to a single article, but does very much recommend reading as a lifestyle choice that will give you an advantage.
I think one of the problems in the world, and maybe this is contributing to the high income inequality, is that people want to be billionaires. There's too many people trying to line their own pockets, over payed CEOs, hedge funders doing questionable things to increase their fees. After like 10-20 million you can buy pretty much anything you want and do anything you want to do. Is a 200 foot super yacht, better than a 40 foot? Sure, but you don't need to own it you can rent it. Is a 50,000 sq. ft. house better than a 10,000 sq ft house? Who cares.
I think one of the problems in the world, and maybe this is contributing to the high income inequality, is that people want to be billionaires.
This is a "problem in the world" in the same way that sex out of wedlock is a "problem." It's just one of the many facets of human nature. Historically, institutions and policies that take human nature into account fare better than those railing against it. The United States is one of the biggest examples.
I wouldn't compare it to sex out of wedlock. I'd compare it to someone instead of saying "I want to be in great shape", saying "I want to be so muscular that I can't physically scratch my own chin".
Sex is actually more apt. People who find it easy to attain sex and let themselves indulge often outperform the average population by orders of magnitude. The drive for sex is operating at a fairly basic level, as is greed. Both are probably supported by evolutionary biology, which made both drives somewhat 'open ended,' driving people to want more than they actually need. Getting more sex has a synergistic effect, often enabling people to get even more sex, in a way analogous to money.
> Shift your focus away from what you want (a billion dollars) and get deeply, intensely curious about what the world wants and needs.
Spend time with people. Listen to what they say in unguarded moments, like moments of frustration, fatigue, or high emotion. Accumulate data. If you hear someone who wishes in frustration that they could think of the right gimmick so they can get their payout, then remember that as data about how they really see the work of doing a startup.
In particular, pay attention to what people pay attention to and how they filter information. Do they act to insulate themselves from unusual information, or do they seek out data that contradicts their own mental model? How well can they avoid "grinding an axe" in the way they seek information? Are they giving a genuine effort at analyzing things from first principles, and do they even know what that entails in the first place?
Now here's my self-serving advice: Get the help of someone who is insightful and intelligent, but whom others are prone to underestimate. Such people have a superpower: A social/tactical camouflage that puts them in a good position to detect lip-service to the values embodied in the paragraphs above.
How well can they look at the situation around them and find common problems that have no solution? Provide that solution, get paid for the amount of value that solution provides.
That's a very direct way to put it. That's the most direct application of "first principles" that applies to startups. However, most people who "talk startups" seem to do a hazy pattern match with other attempts that have already succeeded.
EDIT: Also, the overarching first principle of startups will be of less direct help when dealing with every-day minutiae. Often, these are your problems on the way to solving the customer's problem. However, applying the overarching principle to such schlepping may also help you find an even better problem to solve.
Well it works for several years, but you end up with "the house..., two million cash minus the legal fees ..., alimony and child support for 17 years (about $80,000 a month), no stock, and a Tesla Roadster...":
You say that like being a bi-millionaire was a bad deal. And she only got that end of the deal because she wanted to stop being married to said billionaire ;)
In other words, no one has a clear picture. It's beyond any one person's understanding, including the would be billionaire. As of yet this makes it impossible to determine between luck and inevitability.
Who ever thought Minecraft would make notch a billionaire? I didn't.
Edit: That is not to say you can't learn anything and it's futile to think about these questions, just don't expect a treasure map to fall out of these thought experiments :)
The single greatest factor in being a billionaire is luck.
Elon Musk and Peter Thiel would probably be languishing in obscurity if Paypal had not been sold off right at the edge of the dotcom bubble and given them a financial base to propel their future.
It is being at the right place, at the right time, with the right skill, finding the right investors/employees, partners and much more. When all of that aligns, you get a billionaire. It is only slightly less lucky than playing lottery.
PS: This does not apply to being a millionaire. You can be a millionaire by working hard, taking an upper middle class job and investing prudently.
You will need a lot of luck to be a millionaire too, in fact for anything. If that wasn't the case bulk of the world population would be millionaires. Hunger and poverty would have been long eradicated.
Luck is the final ingredient, secret sauce of sorts that makes a hardworking person rich. A person isn't successful just out of hard work, its because they are lucky too.
And besides that you won't be rich if you are too nice, honest and sincere.
It's a product of how people look for solutions to problems. When people look at obstacles and constantly say to themselves "I can't do X because Y" they will never be billionaires. If you look at something and say "If I can find a way to circumvent or overcome Y, X will make me a million dollars, let's find a way to solve Y and provide X." That's the reason most people are not millionaires. So many look at all the hindrances preventing them from getting to the finish line that the solution never gets realized and they never make their millions.
Luck is relativistic, though. It's far easier to become a billionaire when you've already established your success and connections. The fact that you can easily become a millionaire by working hard means that becoming a billionaire is easier from there than starting from scratch.
> They are unlikely to be reading stuff like this. (This is not to slam or criticize people who do; I love to read this stuff myself.) They are more likely to go straight to a book: perhaps a biography of Alexander the Great or Catherine the Great* or someone else they consider Great. Surfing the 'Net is a deadly timesuck, and given what they know their time is worth -- even back in the day when technically it was not worth that -- they can't afford it.
This paragraph kind of reverberate with me. I like checking HN. It's interesting and while most of the times you don't learn about X, at least you know what it's out there. And I tell myself I'm "working" keeping myself updated.
And then spread thin across different subjects. Because, hey! these days you have to know everything. Even more if you want to build a business and have to wear all the hats.
OTOH the words of Richard Hamming on "keeping an open door" come to mind.
Timebox and prioritize seems to be the best solution.
... we are all just single, elementary experiments within a gigantic, global monte carlo simulation :)
All you can hope for is that your random configuration plays well - b/c you will never know for sure - it's the supervising virtual and hypthetical power evaluating your performance after termination as a statistic.
Then again - don't strive for material satisfaction and you will be a billionaire immediately - and your currency is happiness.
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[ 9.9 ms ] story [ 153 ms ] threadShe has many good points though, especially about the web (waste of time...) and such articles not being what successful people tend to be reading...
http://www.forbes.com/sites/erincarlyle/2013/09/18/how-self-...
I'm aware this doesn't contradict what you said. Just wanted to give more detail.
"After technology, real estate produced the next largest group of self-made Forbes 400 members."
Yeah I get that real estate is a good business to amass large scales of wealth. From what I've studied about money laundering, real estate is the most advantageous method for cleaning up dirty money...I'm not accusing all of the self-made real estate moguls of money laundering, but I'd be suspicious that not all of them saved up their tips from working minimum wage jobs to get their start.
And the best part of real estate like every other investment is. Most people don't realize how good it is until more than half their life is spent. At that point, the entry price of that arena is generally quite high and given all the family responsibilities and other expenses(Health, education and your own retirement) the level is prohibitive enough for most people to not even try.
This means people who make these investments early on in their lives(in their 20's) are best positioned to reap rewards from real estate investments.
When you look at the end millions, the initial few hundred thousand seem inconsequential, but it's a lot easier to get there if you can invest $100k/yr rather than from $5k/yr. (Saving $5k/yr while earning minimum wage is difficult. Saving $100k/yr. while earning $150k/yr., not so much--assuming all these earnings are after taxes.)
E.g. being raised in an American [upper] middle class family is already considered as being quite a rich by world standards.
This is absolutely true. People who can competently live in two different "modes" definitely have an advantage over those who are residents of just one. Steve Jobs, for instance, brought together engineering and design/aesthetics in a way that got Apple noticed and gave it massive competitive advantage over their competitors, who were perceived as boring, ugly and unoriginal. He wasn't a master engineer like Wozniak, and he wasn't a master designer like, say, Ive, but he had a very good understanding and appreciation for both and that's what made him special.
As a side note, there's something about Ms. Musk's writing that really appeals to me. It's clear, concise, and creative.
You mean, Dieter Rams, of course. Ive, for all his talents, is a rehash of a master. If anything Ive is a great example of a multifaceted non-master who knew how to handle two worlds: the no-holds-barred big business world and the artsy design and marketing world. I really see him as a Jobs-like character. Jobs had Woz. Ive had Rams, indirectly of course.
I would hope so; She's a novelist.
Zip2 would've been a complete bust in 2003, and he wouldn't have had the funds to move on to his subsequent ventures. The guy obviously has a lot of great ides, but lots of people have great ideas. Without the financial backing... good luck.
I think that acknowledges that luck is also a prerequisite.
Of a hundred million babies born this year, they do NOT all have the same chance of becoming a billionaire. That's luck.
http://www.economist.com/node/12792903
Self made billionaires are opportunists. They are smart. They are shrewd. They look at the big picture. For every reason they're told they can't do something, they find a solution, they don't see obstacles as deal breakers, they're just speed bumps, irritations that need to be resolved/removed, hoops to be jumped through to get where they're going. They look for the next possibility and insert themselves where they need to in order to leverage what they have to get where they need to go.
So you see it doesn't have as much to do with chance as you might think. What was chance was the bubble occurring. But Elon making use of that opportunity when it presented itself was anything but chance, that was all Elon. He spied an opportunity and rode it until he was shrewd enough to get off the elevator... which is what he's still doing. Finding opportunity and leveraging it to make his next billion dollars.
This is an especially disingenuous characterization, considering he jumped through the hoops to immigrate to the US and go to California, which means he observed and realized that CA is where he should be and worked towards getting there (he's been very vocal about him coming to North America being one of the most important decisions he made and that he quite planned for it). He didn't happen to wake up one day in CA.
Yes, many people are luckier and they happen to be born in Silicon Valley to affluent parents, but the fact that most (almost all) of them have not achieved what Elon has achieved hints at a the use of a stretched definition of the word "luck."
you can say this about a lot of people... pg even, but paypal went public in 2002. i would argue he did the opposite, elon musk remarkably sold a company in the wake of the dot com crash.
but it's like they say, once you're lucky, twice you're good. And Elon Musk is damn good.
Forgive me if that seems a bit snarky but her point is not "you want it" but "deeply thinking about the problem." And when you do that, and you discover that the solution you have to a problem seems to be wildly over valued with respect to your understanding of it, you sell out because you know that when the market stops being irrational that value will evaporate.
You could do like Pincus, found a gaming company and make sure you can pull out $200M on your own before the rest of the world catches up. Or Mason w/ Groupon. There is a lot more work than lottery in there.
Maybe there are no insights. Maybe it is all a sum of the generic things she spoke of, and pure luck of having successful consecutive ventures.
But to put it simply, it's not that great of a Quora answer.
http://www.businessinsider.sg/book-recommendations-from-char...
"Introduce hot ideas to each other, so they can have idea sex and make idea babies that no one has seen before."
This is a "problem in the world" in the same way that sex out of wedlock is a "problem." It's just one of the many facets of human nature. Historically, institutions and policies that take human nature into account fare better than those railing against it. The United States is one of the biggest examples.
This is one of those statements that should go up on a billboard that the more idealistic members of HN are forced to read frequently.
Spend time with people. Listen to what they say in unguarded moments, like moments of frustration, fatigue, or high emotion. Accumulate data. If you hear someone who wishes in frustration that they could think of the right gimmick so they can get their payout, then remember that as data about how they really see the work of doing a startup.
In particular, pay attention to what people pay attention to and how they filter information. Do they act to insulate themselves from unusual information, or do they seek out data that contradicts their own mental model? How well can they avoid "grinding an axe" in the way they seek information? Are they giving a genuine effort at analyzing things from first principles, and do they even know what that entails in the first place?
Now here's my self-serving advice: Get the help of someone who is insightful and intelligent, but whom others are prone to underestimate. Such people have a superpower: A social/tactical camouflage that puts them in a good position to detect lip-service to the values embodied in the paragraphs above.
EDIT: Also, the overarching first principle of startups will be of less direct help when dealing with every-day minutiae. Often, these are your problems on the way to solving the customer's problem. However, applying the overarching principle to such schlepping may also help you find an even better problem to solve.
http://moschus.livejournal.com/154079.html
Who ever thought Minecraft would make notch a billionaire? I didn't.
Edit: That is not to say you can't learn anything and it's futile to think about these questions, just don't expect a treasure map to fall out of these thought experiments :)
Elon Musk and Peter Thiel would probably be languishing in obscurity if Paypal had not been sold off right at the edge of the dotcom bubble and given them a financial base to propel their future.
It is being at the right place, at the right time, with the right skill, finding the right investors/employees, partners and much more. When all of that aligns, you get a billionaire. It is only slightly less lucky than playing lottery.
PS: This does not apply to being a millionaire. You can be a millionaire by working hard, taking an upper middle class job and investing prudently.
Luck is the final ingredient, secret sauce of sorts that makes a hardworking person rich. A person isn't successful just out of hard work, its because they are lucky too.
And besides that you won't be rich if you are too nice, honest and sincere.
My point was you need to do all the hard work. But luck play a huge role after that or at that stage.
Either way you can still get rich if you are lucky. In fact that is what luck is about. Its an unfair advantage.
> They are unlikely to be reading stuff like this. (This is not to slam or criticize people who do; I love to read this stuff myself.) They are more likely to go straight to a book: perhaps a biography of Alexander the Great or Catherine the Great* or someone else they consider Great. Surfing the 'Net is a deadly timesuck, and given what they know their time is worth -- even back in the day when technically it was not worth that -- they can't afford it.
This paragraph kind of reverberate with me. I like checking HN. It's interesting and while most of the times you don't learn about X, at least you know what it's out there. And I tell myself I'm "working" keeping myself updated. And then spread thin across different subjects. Because, hey! these days you have to know everything. Even more if you want to build a business and have to wear all the hats.
OTOH the words of Richard Hamming on "keeping an open door" come to mind.
Timebox and prioritize seems to be the best solution.
... we are all just single, elementary experiments within a gigantic, global monte carlo simulation :)
All you can hope for is that your random configuration plays well - b/c you will never know for sure - it's the supervising virtual and hypthetical power evaluating your performance after termination as a statistic.
Then again - don't strive for material satisfaction and you will be a billionaire immediately - and your currency is happiness.