HN Explorer

Ask HN: How to solve the problems of greece?

10 points by anonyfox ↗ HN
It seems to be a tricky situation right now, and I honestly have no idea by myself how to solve it in a way so that investors don't lose their money and the people in greece don't end up in massive poverty.

Currently my own ideas are very extremistic in one way or another:

a) intervene with military force and set up a temporary government that pushes much needed laws, ensures that taxes are paid without exceptions and fights corruption without mercy. This way the society can be transformed and modernized.

b) All EU states give up their antique national mindsets to form the united states of europe, this way all dept is combined into the EU entity and a new central government can deal with it on large scale effectively. I personally would love this, no matter the circumstances.

c) Increase lendings massively without the austerity politics, so the greece folks can actually start to invest and trigger positive economic signals. But I think this delays just the fundamental problems...

So, what do HNers think about this topic? Is there any viable solution for the current situation?

16 comments

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TheM00se
At this point there is no easy fix and an international market calamity is unavoidable. The only thing to do is to minimize the damage and make sure that creditors won't freak out. Markets will take a dip regardless of what happens because Greece has gotten to a point that the ECB did not want Greece to get to. The actual ideal solution depends on what is to prioritized. If Greece's economic growth is to be prioritized the solution will be to actually forgive portions of the debt and screw over the investors. This will help the Greek economy, but it will piss off investors who will be much less likely to invest in Greece or the EU in the future which is why this scenario is just out. If repayment is the priority and keeping creditors happy, the ECB will have to pony up more cash for Greece, and Greece will have to find a way to get its finances under control which is a difficult task. The difficulties lie in two areas for Greece. The first is that a vast percentage of the population in Greece is employed by the government and as such the #1 employer will have to cut back which is going to cause problems for Greece who has no strong industry but a very strong currency. The second problem Greece has is that it has a culture of tax evasion. Greeks don't feel that it is their duty to pay taxes, as a matter of fact there is a strong culture of avoiding ones taxes. This means that Greece will have to find a way to insure it gets its revenue, even while its population does worse off. At the end of the day, Greece shouldn't have been given the money it was asking for, but we are well past that point.
argumentum
Ultimately the way for Greece to get investors in the future is to be a productive growing economy. While Greece's existing creditors may be "pissed off" for a while, they aren't the only people in the business. Smart investors won't care so much about the past that they'd miss out on a good investment.

Greece should leave the EU, and the debt should be forgiven. It should have never joined and will be much better off outside, like Switzerland (a structurally similar economy).

The idea that Greeks have a "culture of tax evasion" is simplistic. A lot of this has to do with the government's cozy relationship with Greek oligarchs. You are less inclined to pay taxes if they are perceived as propping up a corrupt government.

For all its flaws, Syriza doesn't seem to be as corrupt. I also don't see it as the "far-left" ideologically socialist party it's often portrayed as. They seem to be people that will learn fast where and when government should intervene productively.

anonyfox
As a german, just letting billions of € go while our infrastructure and social system could need more money, this just doesn't feel right.

If we would be the united states of europe this would be a different story, but currently it seems that greece just tries to leech as much money as possible while openly offending us. And by the way, there are poorer states than greece that will pay it's share of the bill in the eu. Am I wrong?

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pvaldes
> investors who will be much less likely to invest in Greece or the EU in the future

I hope so. This will be a win/win situation for everybody.

This way investors will learn to choose better and look more closely at their money the next time, instead to act like fools for years and them panic and waterboarding entire countries unless they agree to assume their private failures as own and fix with public money their recurrent malpractices.

seunosewa
How are the Greeks able to avoid taxes if the government is the primary employer? Can't the government just deduct their taxes for its own use before paying them?
pvaldes
> This way the society can be transformed and modernized.

Sorry by the bitterness but this sound exactly like the big plans for Irak. "The new Greece, now with 40% more of democracy kindly carried for our troops... and only cost US a few extra billions!"

Sometimes the right solution is simply to let fall the speculators. Military intervention just raise a new debt in an endless circle. Nobody can win always, not even banskters.

anonyfox
But how does one overcome a society with a deep level of corruption that renders all attempts useless? Is there another solution to this?
argumentum
I'm over this horror of the investors (creditors) not getting repaid. When you make an investment, you are taking a risk. If it doesn't work out, accept it, learn and move on.

The fact is the EU currency union was deeply flawed from the beginning, and favors exporting economies like Germany over a tourism/shipping economy like Greece. Greece was the fastest growing economy in Europe for decades prior to joining the Euro, and given its immense advantages, there's little reason to suspect this wouldn't have continued in a fair and equitable union, despite corruption & overspending.

Invading Greece to recoup the losses of large banks is not only insane and unethical, but will undoubtedly be met by the bloody resistance of a proud people. It would probably lead to a third world war, which the EU was created to prevent. Your option B is a better union, but it seems very unlikely to happen.

The best bet is what is going to happen anyway .. Greece will leave the Euro, struggle to get back on its feet, but once it does it will prosper as currency devaluation will play to its strengths as the most enticing per capita tourism mecca in the world.

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anonyfox
In this case the investments are already socialized, so the private investors have their money back while the societies of other europe states are fucked if their tax money is lost, not some VCs playing with risk billions.

So yeah, the consequences might be real and hard i'd say

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icu
Hi, IMHO a really great question.

My comments:

a) By force isn't going to happen. The EU integration was about preventing wars by greater integration, especially economics.

b) That is probably where the EU is heading in many, many years to come... but not now.

c) I doubt any of the lenders want to throw anymore good money after bad.

So yeah... what the heck to do?

I really hate to say it but that leaves only two things Greece can do:

1) Greece has to leave the Eurodollar but is still a member of the EU, or

2) Greece leaves the EU completely (including the Eurodollar), and

...only one thing the creditors can do:

1) Extend better repayment terms.

So why would I suggest the above? Well for one thing the reason the UK is doing well economically is because the Bank of England has greater control over fiscal and monetary policy AKA the UK still has the pound (GBP).

My take on things is that Greece won't get out of this mess until they get a handle on fiscal and monetary policy and the main way to do that is by controlling your own national currency.

Also to my knowledge no Government has ever been allowed to go 'Bankrupt'. Essentially fiat currency is backed on the tax intake of a nation... but in the case of the EU... on the tax intake of the entire EU block.

There is some German poster who got down voted on what seems like the basis of a negative stance on Greece's predicament, however by linking all the currencies together the German politicians were tacitly agreeing to back Greece. Therefore IMHO it's not wholly Greece's fault that this mess got this far... the ECB and EU member nations should have tightened things up but then again France, Spain and Portugal are basket cases as well. And don't get me started on the fact that the EU's books aren't even audited... never the less, the point I was making is that it seems like the mood in the EU is to stop supporting Greece financially which means that Greece needs it's own currency again.

And I don't just say this matter the factly... what I'm suggesting will have huge ramifications and destroy lives, families, businesses--it's be total economic chaos until the market can sort itself out again (because by linking the different currencies together the market has been allowed to distort).

gesman
When everyone is screaming "disaster!" watch the price of gold and bitcoin for that matter.

Both are being pretty stable right now.

Clearly big guys are not buying this BS and this game is going to get played safe for a while for now not matter what news outlets are wanting crowd to believe.

Non-event for people who know.

mangoLover
hello, In my opinion, I think a) and c) would be the beginning of a solution. but B) not really because I honestly think EU is a "joke" since Germany is the reason why it still exists (economically speaking of course). I believe Greece should get out of the EU, and inject money in its economy through some quantitative easing. I know it will cause the money to loose its value but it might be meaningful if the greeks could produce greek and consume greek maybe live in autarchy for a couple of year why not ?? But the only thing I see is that the solution will not come from the EU and for investors, let's be honest, they re nowhere near recovering their full investments. I apologize for my english as I am not an native english speaker. . .
Gustomaximus
Why not let them fold and rebuild? I'm sure it's going to be tough but I see it more like the band-aid choice: it's better to pull it off fast than to try and remove slowly. A little simplified but there is a strong history of a 'creative destruction' theory that I feel would serve Greece well: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction

In regards to military intervention, I would never support this. Where do you draw the line when a nation invades because we believe we can run the country better, largely in a world where everyone think they are correct in their thinking.