Ask HN: Why do referendum polls suck?

4 points by giech 11y ago ↗ HN

With the 2014 Scottish Referendum [1] and with the 2015 Greek Referendum [2], opinion polls indicated that results might be "close" (say around 4%), but the former ended with a 10.3% lead, and the latter with a 22.6% lead. But why? Does this reveal a systematic problem with polling? Is it a problem with the sample (e.g. size, distribution, etc.)? Is it the nature of the questions in a referendum that make choosing a sample harder than in traditional elections?

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014#2014 [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_bailout_referendum,_2015#Opinion_polls

1 comment

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LarryMade2 11y ago ↗

I don't know how polls are conducted over in Scotland but around here they are either annoying (like telemarketing calls), sometimes worded to encourage an outcome "Dihydrogen monoxide is the top ingredient in your tap water. Would you drink your tap water?"

Even if the questions are straight forward, folk usually are reluctant to share their political standings or religious views with strangers. I think some polls might use non-direct questions as indicators to what direction you had voted, again, may not indicate how they vote.