I note that (though summarized), this is ~100k tokens. Anyone who routinely works with Codex (or any agentic harness really) can tell you how trivial it is to eat up 100k tokens doing complex work. I've personally had…
I appreciate the detailed comment! I took the day off and am bored so have a brain dump of a reply - basically I think we are talking past each other on two major points: 1. All the discussion about model size is…
Sorry if that was unclear, I did mean 100Bs as in the next order of magnitude. Even GPT-4 had ~220B active params, though the trend has been towards increased sparsification (lower activation:total ratio). GPT 4.5 is…
What do you think labs are doing with the minimum 10TB memory in NvLink 72 systems that were publicly reported to all start coming online in November/December of last year? And why would this 1 TB -> 10 TB jump matter…
I assure you, the number of people paying to use Qwen3-Max or other similar proprietary endpoints is far less than 1.6 billion.
I generally agree, back of the napkin math shows H20 cluster of 8gpu * 96gb = 768gb = 768B parameters on FP8 (no NVFP4 on Hopper), which lines up pretty nicely with the sizes of recent open source Chinese models.…
Try 10s of trillions. These days everyone is running 4-bit at inference (the flagship feature of Blackwell+), with the big flagship models running on recently installed Nvidia 72gpu rubin clusters (and equivalent-ish…
You, know, it sure does add some additional perspective to the original Anthropic marketing materia... ahem, I mean article, to learn that the CCC compiled runtime for SQLite could potentially run up to 158,000 times…
Indeed, and the difference could in essence be achieved yourself with a different system prompt on 4o. What exactly is 4.5 contributing here in terms of a more nuanced intelligence? The new RLHF direction (heavily…
It's interesting to compare the cost of that original gpt-4 32k(0314) vs gpt-4.5: $60/M input tokens vs $75/M input tokens $120/M output tokens vs $150/M output tokens
Forgive me if I'm missing your existing realization (I did a quick check of your HN, reddit, twitter, LW), but I think the big deal with Sohu (wrt Etched) is that they have pivoted from the "all model parameters hard…
I was thinking about the llm writing tool from Janus.
4chan already has a torrent out, of course.
The little secret is that the training run (meaning, creating the raw autocompleting multimodal token weights) for 5 ran in parallel with 4.
Luckily Eliezer has written hundreds of approachable essays on the development of his epistemic processes over at lesswrong.com so you too can learn rationality and derive the killeveryonism conclusion yourself. (/s…
Fair enough, shame "Large Tokenized Models" etc never entered the nomenclature.
You are conflating Illya's belief in the transformer architecture (with tweaks/compute optimizations) being sufficient for AGI with that of LLMs being sufficient to express human-like intelligence. Multi-modality (and…
The issue, as pointed above, is primarily bandwidth (at inference), not addressable memory. Put simply, the best bandwidth stack we currently have is on-package HBM -> NVLink, -> Mellanox InfiniBand, and for inference…
Agriculture > Manufacturing -> Service -> Content based economy, turns out youth have the head start, as always.
Won nearly every single coding jam (8/9) he was in, highest code force rating of all time, 6x consecutive IOI gold, yea he’s the cut and dry winner.
Tech survey results, ops load via CTI tickets, CR/LOC stats, accolades, COEs, promotion rate, turnover/attrition.... There are so many data sources that are all queryable via API. There are a couple basic greasemonkey…
Oh my friend, there is a tool called Lift used in OLR/Talent Review by every single 50+ group at Amazon that quite literally will show your face up on a screen for everyone at the OLR meeting to discuss and rank vs your…
For fun, there are currently precisely 312 employees under DynamoDB directors/VPs that are categorized at "Software Development". Including systems engineers ups it to 348.
The news here is that amazon is going to start the 2 month+ WARN period for a much larger set of orgs this week. Amazon Care/Health Service layoffs are old news.
Unfortunately development has been paused for over two years now. But yes, outside of Arpia + some other total conversions for older EVs, this is really the only thing out there that directly scratches the EV itch. The…
I note that (though summarized), this is ~100k tokens. Anyone who routinely works with Codex (or any agentic harness really) can tell you how trivial it is to eat up 100k tokens doing complex work. I've personally had…
I appreciate the detailed comment! I took the day off and am bored so have a brain dump of a reply - basically I think we are talking past each other on two major points: 1. All the discussion about model size is…
Sorry if that was unclear, I did mean 100Bs as in the next order of magnitude. Even GPT-4 had ~220B active params, though the trend has been towards increased sparsification (lower activation:total ratio). GPT 4.5 is…
What do you think labs are doing with the minimum 10TB memory in NvLink 72 systems that were publicly reported to all start coming online in November/December of last year? And why would this 1 TB -> 10 TB jump matter…
I assure you, the number of people paying to use Qwen3-Max or other similar proprietary endpoints is far less than 1.6 billion.
I generally agree, back of the napkin math shows H20 cluster of 8gpu * 96gb = 768gb = 768B parameters on FP8 (no NVFP4 on Hopper), which lines up pretty nicely with the sizes of recent open source Chinese models.…
Try 10s of trillions. These days everyone is running 4-bit at inference (the flagship feature of Blackwell+), with the big flagship models running on recently installed Nvidia 72gpu rubin clusters (and equivalent-ish…
You, know, it sure does add some additional perspective to the original Anthropic marketing materia... ahem, I mean article, to learn that the CCC compiled runtime for SQLite could potentially run up to 158,000 times…
Indeed, and the difference could in essence be achieved yourself with a different system prompt on 4o. What exactly is 4.5 contributing here in terms of a more nuanced intelligence? The new RLHF direction (heavily…
It's interesting to compare the cost of that original gpt-4 32k(0314) vs gpt-4.5: $60/M input tokens vs $75/M input tokens $120/M output tokens vs $150/M output tokens
Forgive me if I'm missing your existing realization (I did a quick check of your HN, reddit, twitter, LW), but I think the big deal with Sohu (wrt Etched) is that they have pivoted from the "all model parameters hard…
I was thinking about the llm writing tool from Janus.
4chan already has a torrent out, of course.
The little secret is that the training run (meaning, creating the raw autocompleting multimodal token weights) for 5 ran in parallel with 4.
Luckily Eliezer has written hundreds of approachable essays on the development of his epistemic processes over at lesswrong.com so you too can learn rationality and derive the killeveryonism conclusion yourself. (/s…
Fair enough, shame "Large Tokenized Models" etc never entered the nomenclature.
You are conflating Illya's belief in the transformer architecture (with tweaks/compute optimizations) being sufficient for AGI with that of LLMs being sufficient to express human-like intelligence. Multi-modality (and…
The issue, as pointed above, is primarily bandwidth (at inference), not addressable memory. Put simply, the best bandwidth stack we currently have is on-package HBM -> NVLink, -> Mellanox InfiniBand, and for inference…
Agriculture > Manufacturing -> Service -> Content based economy, turns out youth have the head start, as always.
Won nearly every single coding jam (8/9) he was in, highest code force rating of all time, 6x consecutive IOI gold, yea he’s the cut and dry winner.
Tech survey results, ops load via CTI tickets, CR/LOC stats, accolades, COEs, promotion rate, turnover/attrition.... There are so many data sources that are all queryable via API. There are a couple basic greasemonkey…
Oh my friend, there is a tool called Lift used in OLR/Talent Review by every single 50+ group at Amazon that quite literally will show your face up on a screen for everyone at the OLR meeting to discuss and rank vs your…
For fun, there are currently precisely 312 employees under DynamoDB directors/VPs that are categorized at "Software Development". Including systems engineers ups it to 348.
The news here is that amazon is going to start the 2 month+ WARN period for a much larger set of orgs this week. Amazon Care/Health Service layoffs are old news.
Unfortunately development has been paused for over two years now. But yes, outside of Arpia + some other total conversions for older EVs, this is really the only thing out there that directly scratches the EV itch. The…