Naturally, he has a whole detailed post/trace about it on gwern net! https://gwern.net/twitter An interesting case of echo chamber formation in that its pragmatic to be scared of overtly critiquing him on twitter lest…
Ha, haha, across hundreds of personal discussions I've been involved with on lesswrong/lighthaven, twitter, Wikipedia talk/editing, SF parties etc I think his most distinguishing feature has always been his abiding and…
I appreciate the detailed comment! I took the day off and am bored so have a brain dump of a reply - basically I think we are talking past each other on two major points: 1. All the discussion about model size is…
Sorry if that was unclear, I did mean 100Bs as in the next order of magnitude. Even GPT-4 had ~220B active params, though the trend has been towards increased sparsification (lower activation:total ratio). GPT 4.5 is…
What do you think labs are doing with the minimum 10TB memory in NvLink 72 systems that were publicly reported to all start coming online in November/December of last year? And why would this 1 TB -> 10 TB jump matter…
I assure you, the number of people paying to use Qwen3-Max or other similar proprietary endpoints is far less than 1.6 billion.
I generally agree, back of the napkin math shows H20 cluster of 8gpu * 96gb = 768gb = 768B parameters on FP8 (no NVFP4 on Hopper), which lines up pretty nicely with the sizes of recent open source Chinese models.…
Try 10s of trillions. These days everyone is running 4-bit at inference (the flagship feature of Blackwell+), with the big flagship models running on recently installed Nvidia 72gpu rubin clusters (and equivalent-ish…
Indeed, and the difference could in essence be achieved yourself with a different system prompt on 4o. What exactly is 4.5 contributing here in terms of a more nuanced intelligence? The new RLHF direction (heavily…
It's interesting to compare the cost of that original gpt-4 32k(0314) vs gpt-4.5: $60/M input tokens vs $75/M input tokens $120/M output tokens vs $150/M output tokens
I was thinking about the llm writing tool from Janus.
4chan already has a torrent out, of course.
The little secret is that the training run (meaning, creating the raw autocompleting multimodal token weights) for 5 ran in parallel with 4.
Luckily Eliezer has written hundreds of approachable essays on the development of his epistemic processes over at lesswrong.com so you too can learn rationality and derive the killeveryonism conclusion yourself. (/s…
Fair enough, shame "Large Tokenized Models" etc never entered the nomenclature.
You are conflating Illya's belief in the transformer architecture (with tweaks/compute optimizations) being sufficient for AGI with that of LLMs being sufficient to express human-like intelligence. Multi-modality (and…
Agriculture > Manufacturing -> Service -> Content based economy, turns out youth have the head start, as always.
Used it for weeks internally, finally gave up after deciding it I more than once felt the day's use was a net productive loss even when working with internal Amazon packages (that it should have had a training advantage…
Spoiler: He did not say that.
Tech survey results, ops load via CTI tickets, CR/LOC stats, accolades, COEs, promotion rate, turnover/attrition.... There are so many data sources that are all queryable via API. There are a couple basic greasemonkey…
Oh my friend, there is a tool called Lift used in OLR/Talent Review by every single 50+ group at Amazon that quite literally will show your face up on a screen for everyone at the OLR meeting to discuss and rank vs your…
The news here is that amazon is going to start the 2 month+ WARN period for a much larger set of orgs this week. Amazon Care/Health Service layoffs are old news.
Unfortunately development has been paused for over two years now. But yes, outside of Arpia + some other total conversions for older EVs, this is really the only thing out there that directly scratches the EV itch. The…
Instead of getting good at 1 big tech job making 300k in 20-30 hours a week you get good at 2-3 and make 800k+ in 60 hours a week. Though I think the actual best way to optimize labor-to-income is F500 Cloud SRE via B2B…
A couple questions about your service/models: 1. It seems likely your models work internally with probabilities vs binary buy/sell decisions. Why do you not have the option to expose this probability, vs just simple buy…
Naturally, he has a whole detailed post/trace about it on gwern net! https://gwern.net/twitter An interesting case of echo chamber formation in that its pragmatic to be scared of overtly critiquing him on twitter lest…
Ha, haha, across hundreds of personal discussions I've been involved with on lesswrong/lighthaven, twitter, Wikipedia talk/editing, SF parties etc I think his most distinguishing feature has always been his abiding and…
I appreciate the detailed comment! I took the day off and am bored so have a brain dump of a reply - basically I think we are talking past each other on two major points: 1. All the discussion about model size is…
Sorry if that was unclear, I did mean 100Bs as in the next order of magnitude. Even GPT-4 had ~220B active params, though the trend has been towards increased sparsification (lower activation:total ratio). GPT 4.5 is…
What do you think labs are doing with the minimum 10TB memory in NvLink 72 systems that were publicly reported to all start coming online in November/December of last year? And why would this 1 TB -> 10 TB jump matter…
I assure you, the number of people paying to use Qwen3-Max or other similar proprietary endpoints is far less than 1.6 billion.
I generally agree, back of the napkin math shows H20 cluster of 8gpu * 96gb = 768gb = 768B parameters on FP8 (no NVFP4 on Hopper), which lines up pretty nicely with the sizes of recent open source Chinese models.…
Try 10s of trillions. These days everyone is running 4-bit at inference (the flagship feature of Blackwell+), with the big flagship models running on recently installed Nvidia 72gpu rubin clusters (and equivalent-ish…
Indeed, and the difference could in essence be achieved yourself with a different system prompt on 4o. What exactly is 4.5 contributing here in terms of a more nuanced intelligence? The new RLHF direction (heavily…
It's interesting to compare the cost of that original gpt-4 32k(0314) vs gpt-4.5: $60/M input tokens vs $75/M input tokens $120/M output tokens vs $150/M output tokens
I was thinking about the llm writing tool from Janus.
4chan already has a torrent out, of course.
The little secret is that the training run (meaning, creating the raw autocompleting multimodal token weights) for 5 ran in parallel with 4.
Luckily Eliezer has written hundreds of approachable essays on the development of his epistemic processes over at lesswrong.com so you too can learn rationality and derive the killeveryonism conclusion yourself. (/s…
Fair enough, shame "Large Tokenized Models" etc never entered the nomenclature.
You are conflating Illya's belief in the transformer architecture (with tweaks/compute optimizations) being sufficient for AGI with that of LLMs being sufficient to express human-like intelligence. Multi-modality (and…
Agriculture > Manufacturing -> Service -> Content based economy, turns out youth have the head start, as always.
Used it for weeks internally, finally gave up after deciding it I more than once felt the day's use was a net productive loss even when working with internal Amazon packages (that it should have had a training advantage…
Spoiler: He did not say that.
Tech survey results, ops load via CTI tickets, CR/LOC stats, accolades, COEs, promotion rate, turnover/attrition.... There are so many data sources that are all queryable via API. There are a couple basic greasemonkey…
Oh my friend, there is a tool called Lift used in OLR/Talent Review by every single 50+ group at Amazon that quite literally will show your face up on a screen for everyone at the OLR meeting to discuss and rank vs your…
The news here is that amazon is going to start the 2 month+ WARN period for a much larger set of orgs this week. Amazon Care/Health Service layoffs are old news.
Unfortunately development has been paused for over two years now. But yes, outside of Arpia + some other total conversions for older EVs, this is really the only thing out there that directly scratches the EV itch. The…
Instead of getting good at 1 big tech job making 300k in 20-30 hours a week you get good at 2-3 and make 800k+ in 60 hours a week. Though I think the actual best way to optimize labor-to-income is F500 Cloud SRE via B2B…
A couple questions about your service/models: 1. It seems likely your models work internally with probabilities vs binary buy/sell decisions. Why do you not have the option to expose this probability, vs just simple buy…